South Africa will vote on 29 May – three decades after the end of apartheid. The African National Congress has been in power since then, but polls are predicting the party will lose its majority with many voters disgruntled by its failure to address inequality.
When the African National Congress (ANC) came to power led by Nelson Mandela, it promised to improve the lives of black South Africans following decades of apartheid – a system of institutionalised racial segregation that existed from 1948 to 1994.
Thirty years on, South Africa suffers from one of the world's worst rates of income inequality.
While the ANC denies it will need a coalition, polls say an end to its single-party governance is likely.
Joblessness, poverty
"I don't want to even talk to the ANC," Dalene Raiters, an unemployed 48-year-old who lives in a single room in Johannesburg with her sons and grandson, told Reuters.
"Mandela's dream is not their dream."
Like those of many South Africans, Dalene's family is sustained by grants.
She receives the equivalent of €54 per month for two minor dependents, supplemented by handouts from the local mosque, feeding schemes and odd jobs for neighbours.
Although record unemployment and a struggling economy are major issues for voters, the ANC is touting South Africa's welfare system – a rarity in middle-income economies – as a landmark achievement.
"These grants and subsidies do much more than give people what they need to live," President Cyril Ramaphosa said in February.
"They are an investment in the future."
Yet support for the ANC is waning as the country's social security buckles with more than 24 million – over a third of the population – requiring assistance.
Economic failures
Social security and economic prosperity were the bedrock of ANC policy when it won power in 1994.
South Africa was then the most dynamic economy on the continent.
Today areas like Johannesburg's suburb Sandton, with its skyscrapers and luxurious homes, show a form of economic success only enjoyed by a minority of the country’s 60 million people.
More than 60 percent of the population lives in poverty, according to the World Bank, while a decade of economic stagnation has pushed unemployment above 32 percent, nearly 10 points higher than 30 years ago.
The ANC's policies have "enriched an elite few while keeping millions in poverty," the South African Institute of Race Relations reports.
"It disincentivises employment, growth and investment. It is time for an alternative."
“We haven’t seen a reduction in poverty and inequality. On the contrary, we’ve seen the opposite.” - Dr Anthea Jeffery, IRR
— South African Institute of Race Relations (@IRR_SouthAfrica) May 9, 2024
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For Thabo Mbeki, South Africa's president from 1999 to 2008, the welfare system was never intended to be a cure but a way to grow an inclusive economy that boosted employment.
But according to Michael Sachs, an economist at the Southern Centre for Inequality Studies: "If those social problems continue to mount and the only answer of the government is to provide more social grants, then eventually it will become unsustainable."
Sachs also said that while there are enough resources to support intended beneficiaries – like children and pensioners – the government can't handle skyrocketing unemployment and economic stagnation.
Change in sight?
South Africa's economic future could depend on who the ANC chooses as a potential coalition partner.
The centre-right, business-friendly Democratic Alliance (DA) is the largest opposition party and could be open to talks about a coalition with the ANC.
But to South African analysts, it would be an awkward fit.
The DA's primary focus is job creation. It wants to relax labour laws and move away from affirmative action aimed at redressing apartheid-era discrimination.
The DA has also been blaming the ANC for the country's troubles.
Yet it seems willing to prevent what its leader John Steenhuisen dubs a "doomsday coalition" between the ANC and Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) led by Julius Malema.
The EFF has stated a desire for the finance portfolio were it to partner with the ANC, with additional demands for land redistribution and the nationalisation of mines and banks.
Its election manifesto calls for doubling social benefits, a new grant for unemployed university graduates and further free public services for the poor.
(with newswires)
