Who is in trouble?
Cyril Ramaphosa took power as South Africa’s president in 2018 and led the ruling African National Congress party to a general election victory a year later. He campaigned on an anti-corruption platform, attracting much support after the turbulent nine-year rule of his populist predecessor, Jacob Zuma, who was forced out by a series of scandals. Ramaphosa, 70, has since struggled to push through much-needed reforms and has faced fierce resistance from Zuma loyalists.
A former labour activist once tipped for the presidency of a free South Africa by Nelson Mandela, Ramaphosa earned a fortune as a businessman when he took a break from politics after being passed over in favour of others. He enjoys breeding and raising valuable animals, including cattle. These commercial and personal interests now threaten a premature end to his political career.
Why?
Somewhere between $500,000 and $5m was stolen from Ramaphosa’s game ranch at Phala Phala, in Limpopo province, in early 2020. The cash does not appear to have been declared according to strict local money laundering regulations or for tax. Nor was its theft reported to police. Instead, a presidential bodyguard was tasked with tracking down the money and then possibly paying off the culprits. Local media call the scandal Farmgate.
What just happened?
An independent panel appointed by parliament has reported finding evidence of wrongdoing that could constitute gross misconduct, an infringement of the constitution and a breach of the presidential oath. None of this is ideal for a president elected to clear up corruption and restore integrity to public life. But the real problem is that parliament could go on to impeach Ramaphosa, who says he is innocent.
So now what?
Parliament will vote on whether impeachment will go ahead. A two-thirds majority for the move would be necessary, meaning that about half of the ANC’s members would have to vote with the opposition parties. This is unlikely, because Ramaphosa has long been seen as the party’s best candidate for general elections expected in 2024. But it is possible. Even if impeachment goes ahead, it is a long process.
Whatever happens, Ramaphosa will face an attempt to replace him as ANC leader at a conference next month. He is considered very likely to see off any such challenge, but has been weakened. If he loses the party post, it would be hard for him to hold on to the presidency for very long.
Reports in local media on Thursday night suggested that Ramaphosa might resign as early as this weekend rather than face a drawn out battle to remain in office.
What does this mean for South Africa?
The rand nosedived on news of the potential impeachment, reflecting international markets’ fears for the country’s political stability and the future of a leader seen as business friendly. South Africa suffers from rolling nationwide power cuts that have crippled businesses, and from soaring unemployment, anaemic growth, a failing education system and inadequate healthcare. It has been battered by the Covid-19 pandemic and the current global economic crisis, and a change of leader forced by bitter internal competition between factions would be the last thing the country needs.
