You can go back 100 years and in all that time, the true measure of the All Blacks has been how they perform against South Africa. It has always been seen as the ultimate test and I still have vivid memories of the 1996 tour when New Zealand won a series in South Africa for the very first time. I don’t think it has changed much and if anything, the fact that the South African teams no longer compete in Super Rugby makes it all the more special.
Talking to people back home there is genuine belief that New Zealand can get the better of South Africa once again. It is only 18 months ago that this team was on the ropes, there were calls for Ian Foster to be sacked and for Scott Robertson to be parachuted in but the coaching staff have stuck to their principles, the players have performed well and at the right time.
If New Zealand do go on to be victorious on Saturday it would be the ultimate mic drop for Foster, bowing out with a World Cup title. We don’t have royals, our heroes are the All Blacks, the Invincibles of 1924-25. The men in New Zealand are judged against Dave Gallaher and his Originals in 1906.
If we are to have new heroes then the All Blacks will need to match the physicality that England brought to the contest in the semi-final. It caused South Africa huge problems but the battle of the bench ultimately swung the contest in the Springboks’ favour and I expect that to prove pivotal again. I’ve no doubt that the All Blacks can match South Africa physically for the first section of the game, but my question would be can they do it for 80 minutes after the Springboks have turned to their seven forwards on their bench?
I’m certain that New Zealand will look to come out with a fast start. In terms of their initial physicality and in terms of their ball movement, they’ll look to bring a speed and a tempo that we’ve not seen from them in this tournament yet. Contesting the aerial battle will also be key, as will the transitions – any area where they can inject pace into the game – so expect quick taps and quickly taken lineouts. That will help in trying to take the sting out of South Africa’s physicality as they seek to move the big Springboks pack around.
It wouldn’t surprise me if New Zealand have a plan to expose the edge against South Africa. To do that effectively, it all starts with quick ball and if you’re generating less-than-two-second rucks, the ability of South Africa’s defensive line to get up, get back and then get up again is compromised. That allows New Zealand to play flatter and on top, and all of a sudden the South Africa defensive line won’t be as connected as it should be and dog-legs will appear. New Zealand will be confrontational, they’ll try to create quick ball, try to create weak shoulders in the middle of the field and that allows their backs to expose the edge. The key will be looking to play over or around, not across.
We’ll see a lot of attacking kicks from Richie Mo’unga, Beauden and Jordie Barrett, looking for the wingers and trying to find ways to get the ball to space. They won’t want the South Africa forwards to be sitting in the middle of the field, getting up and making a tackle, and being able to repeat that. New Zealand have got to move them around – north and south through their kicking game and east to west by moving the ball to the edge. If South Africa are comfortable in the middle of the field, they are not draining their energy. So you’ll see New Zealand trying to move them when they can, expose South Africa’s line speed and expose the edge.
I imagine we’ll see those kick passes that New Zealand execute so well and those chips over the top that just temper the line speed a little bit. It could even force Faf de Klerk to drop into the back field a little bit and allow New Zealand to get on to the front foot. Because this is not the sort of game the All Blacks can ease in to, stay in the contest and back themselves to pull clear after 60 minutes as they used to. But if they can force South Africa to chase the game, force them to do something they’re not comfortable with, then the All Blacks have a genuine chance of getting their hands back on the trophy.
