There was a moment, about eight months ago, where it felt like the Socceroos had turned a corner.
After a COVID-enforced period of stasis, in which they didn't play a match for 567 days, Australia's men's national team resumed World Cup qualifying last June with a burst of four matches in two weeks.
They strolled through all of them, sweeping aside Kuwait, Taiwan, Nepal, and Jordan, scoring twelve goals while conceding just twice. Three more wins followed that short sprint a few months later, this time against China, Vietnam, and Oman. Seven goals scored, two conceded.
This hot streak saw them conclude their second round of Asian qualifying undefeated, setting a FIFA record for the highest number of consecutive wins (11) for any nation anywhere on their path to a men's World Cup.
After several years of slowly-fading hopes, it finally felt like this rag-tag bunch of players - some of whom had never set foot in the country whose green-and-gold jersey they now wore — had, somehow, returned to the path first paved by the "golden generation" they grew up watching. It felt like something inevitable, something pre-destined.
Or it did for a few days, at least.
Less than a week after that 3-1 win over Oman, Australia flew to Saitama to take on Asian powerhouses Japan. An own goal to Australian defender Aziz Behich in the 86th minute saw the result tilt in Japan's favour, with the 2-1 loss snapping the Socceroos' winning streak and, with it, something a little deeper and less tangible in the team, too.
What followed was a tumbling of results: one win, three draws, and two losses as Australia scraped into third spot in their group. The final two games were perhaps the most disheartening yet: a wheezing 2-0 loss to Japan at home, which ended Australia's automatic qualification hopes, followed by a 1-0 loss to group winners Saudi Arabia in late March.
So steep and rapid was the decline — in both results and style of play on the field — that the future of head coach Graham Arnold was openly questioned by a chorus of media and fans, with Football Australia CEO James Johnson releasing a statement 24 hours after the Saudi loss reassuring many (including, you'd imagine, Arnold himself) that his job was safe. For now.
But for the Socceroos faithful, the signs had been there for some time. As former skipper-turned-pundit Mark Milligan said, that historic winning streak over smaller Asian nations "paved over a few cracks" that bigger, better teams exposed.
Existential discussions inevitably followed. Domestic pathways, the lack of senior players at top European clubs, grassroots pay-to-play models, national curriculums, and vague observations over the team's "mentality" were all scrutinised as Australia were once more reminded of exactly where they sit in the pecking-order of world football (number 41, for those playing at home).
Now, we are here, facing a one-off must-win play-off match against the United Arab Emirates, Asia's other third-placed nation in the parallel group, set to kick off at 4am AEST tomorrow.
And while the odds are leaning in Australia's favour given they have won three of their past four meetings, the UAE are no push-overs. The Arab nation won their most recent clash in 2019, and come into this play-off with their own sense of barrelling destiny despite having not qualified for a World Cup since 1990, most recently defeating South Korea 1-0 in their final qualifier.
Striker Ali Mabkhout scored the winner in their last meeting with Australia and currently has 14 goals to his name in this current qualifying cycle: the most for any player from any confederation. The return of former Asian Player of the Year Omar Abdulrahman will also be a handful, especially for the recently-revived Socceroos midfielder Aaron Mooy, who hasn't played a full match for months but is expected to start on Wednesday.
Win against the UAE and they will take on Peru next week in the final decider: an arguably harder task given Australia has not defeated a South American side in the men's game for over a decade, having lost five and drawn twice since then.
Uncertainty permeates Australia in many more ways. Their shaky run into the play-offs, their loss of key player in Tom Rogic and lingering absence of Harry Souttar, questionable tactics and out-of-position players, and criticisms over those intangible things - their spirit, their mentality, their fight - have created an air of mournful resignation among the Socceroos' faithful that they might not get the job done.
It's not the first time Australia has had to do this the hard way, though. Ange Postecoglou led the Socceroos through the intercontinental play-off back in 2018, just edging Syria and Honduras on their way to Russia.
Four years earlier, Australia under Holger Osieck only made it to Brazil thanks to a final-match-day win over Iraq.
And, of course, we all know what happened against Uruguay.
These do-or-die moments are pivot points: they can trigger something that permeates the sport for years to come, or they can be the death-knell of a coach, a team, and a generation of players who fade into the yellowing pages of history.
Across the next two weeks, the Socceroos will decide which path is destined for them.
You can follow all the action with ABC Sport's live-blog from 3:30am AEST.
Match details:
United Arab Emirates v Australia - Asian Football Confederation Play-off
Date: Wednesday, 8 June 2022
Time: 4:00am AEST
Venue: Ahmad Bin Ali Stadium, Doha, Qatar
Broadcast: Live and free in Australia via Network 10, 10 Play, & Paramount+ from 3.30am AEST
*Peru v Australia/United Arab Emirates – Intercontinental Play-off
Date: Tuesday, 14 June 2022
Time: 4:00am AEST
Venue: Ahmad Bin Ali Stadium, Doha, Qatar
Broadcast: Live and free in Australia via Network 10, 10 Play, & Paramount+ from 3.30am AEST
