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Daily Record
Daily Record
Politics
Chris McCall

SNP voters split on Nicola Sturgeon de facto independence referendum plan, poll finds

SNP voters are split on Nicola Sturgeon's plan to use the next general election as a de facto referendum on Scottish independence, a poll has found.

A survey by leading pollster Lord Ashcroft found less than half of those who voted for the Nationalists at the 2019 general election are in favour of using the next contest as a way of demonstrating support for ending the Union.

A poll of more than 2,000 voters in Scotland found only 44 per cent of people who voted for Sturgeon's party agreed with the statement "the next general election should be taken as a de facto independence referendum".

But 48 per cent agreed that "people vote at elections for lots of different reasons – we cannot assume that every vote for the SNP or the Greens is a vote for Scottish independence".

The vast majority of Scots in general are opposed to the de facto referendum plan with only one in five in favour of a de facto indyref. Professor John Curtice, the country's leading polling expert, said the SNP was "divided" on independence strategy and there were signs that support for leaving the Union was "weakening".

He told Holyrood magazine: "The Supreme Court judgement of November pushed the numbers up and there was always good reason to believe that would come down after what was probably a temporary rise. It’s certainly not good news for the independence side but I think we should be aware that probably it was going to deflate anyway.

"The UK veto on the GRR bill at this point in time has not done anything for the pro-independence case. It’s not the ground on which to fight, that much is clear."

The First Minister has previously planned for an IndyRef2 to take place on October 19 this year. But that strategy was shot down by the UK Supreme Court when it ruled Holyrood does not have the power to call a referendum on independence without prior approval from Westminster.

Sturgeon then argued that if the UK Government continued to oppose a legal referendum, her party could campaign on the sole issue of independence at the next general election. If more than 50 per cent of Scots backed the SNP, the party would use it as a mandate to begin negotiations on ending the Union.

But there has been opposition to such a plan among senior Nationalists and the precise details of how a de facto referendum would work have not been agreed on. The SNP will hold a special conference next month where party members will thrash out how how to take the independence campaign forward.

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