SNP to stay biggest Holyrood party as support for Labour 'implodes', poll says

THE SNP would be the biggest party at Holyrood at the next election and support for Labour would have “imploded”, new analysis of polling has suggested.

A poll carried out for The Herald by Find Out Now put support for the SNP at 31% on the constituency vote and 25% on the list vote.

It put Labour’s constituency vote at 19% and their list vote at 15%, while the LibDems were at 10% and 13% respectively, as were the Scottish Greens.

The poll put the Scottish Tories at 12% on the constituency vote and 13% on the list, while Reform were at 13% on the constituency and 11% on the list.

Alba were at 2% in the constituency vote and 7% on the list.

It comes after a poll by Survation last month also predicted the SNP to remain the largest party at Holyrood with Reform UK fracturing the Unionist vote. 

Analysis of this latest poll by expert John Curtice suggested the SNP would win 51 seats, down from 64 at the 2021 election, while Labour would win 16 – down six.

The Scottish Conservatives would win 15 seats, as would the Scottish LibDems and the Scottish Greens, while Alba would have eight and Reform nine, the analysis suggests.

There would be 74 MSPs from pro-independence parties, which would mean a pro-independence majority at Holyrood.

Curtice said: “To be honest, the polling tells us there is no dramatic breakthrough here, it is just that Labour’s difficulties seem to continue.

“Reform’s rise is well-maintained. The SNP, if anything, is slipping back on these polls compared to previous polls.

(Image: Archive) “But the point here is the SNP finds itself where they are basically because Labour support has imploded.

“That just gives the SNP the chance of forming the next government, albeit from a rather weaker position than it is at the moment.”

The poll of 1334 people was carried out by Find Out Now between January 15 and 20.

It found that if a Westminster election was held tomorrow, 31% of those questioned said they would vote SNP while 18% said Labour.

Support for the Tories was at 12%, the Lib Dems at 10%, the Greens at 7%, Reform at 17% and others at 5%.

Analysis by Curtice suggests this would result in 31 seats for the SNP and would give Labour 11, the LibDems six and the Tories five.