THE SNP have been projected to win back 24 seats based on new polling which predicts Labour would fall short of a majority at the next election.
Labour’s support is on 29% with Reform UK on 24%, according to research by Opinium.
The Tories have 23% support, the UK-wide survey found, with the LibDems on 10%, the Greens on 9% and the SNP on 2%.
This would give Labour 316 seats in the Commons, short of a majority, while Reform would get 44 seats, according to projections from Stats for Lefties.
The Twitter/X account projected that Labour would lose 95 seats at the next election if the results were borne out in reality, while the Tories would pick up 32 seats to take their total to 153.
The results would mean the LibDems would stand to lose six seats, giving them 66 MPs, while Reform would gain 39 seats, to take their total to 44 seats, the analysis said.
The SNP would make a convincing comeback from their drubbing at the last election, gaining 24 seats to take their total to 33 MPs.
If replicated in an election, the results point towards Labour having to enter into a coalition with one of the smaller parties to stay in power.
The poll will be a boost to the SNP under John Swinney’s leadership, with the First Minister this weekend pledging to remain in post until 2031 if his party wins the next Holyrood election.
🗳️ Voting intention for #GE2029 (+ my estimate): 🟥 LAB 29% (-), 316 seats 🟪 REF 24% (+2), 44 seats 🟦 CON 23% (-), 153 seats 🟧 LD 10% (-1), 66 seats 🟩 GRN 9% (-1), 4 seats 🟨 SNP 2% (-1), 33 seats Via @OpiniumResearch, 8-10 Jan (+/- vs 18-20 Dec) pic.twitter.com/t5pGkh9xcV
— Stats for Lefties 🍉🏳️⚧️ (@LeftieStats) January 11, 2025
The results will also be encouraging to Nigel Farage, if short of his ultimate ambition to come the UK’s next prime minister.
A poll last week put Reform neck and neck with the Labour Party and analysis of the results predicted Farage’s party could expect to win between 149 and 209 seats, making them either the largest or second largest party against Labour.
Despite winning a huge majority at last year’s election, Labour’s support has been described as “shallow” and the party face the prospect of being booted out after five years if Keir Starmer and his top team are unable to turn things around.
