Imagine a world where our winter wonderland dreams are nothing more than a distant memory. A world where river basins once blanketed in snow are now experiencing rapid declines in their snowpack. It may sound like a scene from a dystopian novel, but unfortunately, it's becoming a harsh reality due to climate change.
According to a recent study published in the journal Nature, many of the world's most populous basins are on the brink of a catastrophic decline in snowpack. The study found that a key threshold for the future of snowpacks in the Northern Hemisphere is 17.6 degrees (-8 degrees Celsius). If the winter temperature average is warmer than that, the snowpack quickly melts away, leaving us with barren landscapes instead of winter wonderlands.
Lead author Alexander Gottlieb, an Earth systems scientist at Dartmouth College, warns that we are potentially entering a regime of rapid and accelerating losses as temperatures continue to rise. The implications are far-reaching, as spring snowpack is crucial for delivering drinking and irrigation water to billions of people worldwide. Bigger and earlier melts pose significant problems for water supplies and ecosystems alike.
The research examined snowpack depth and amount, rather than just snow cover, to provide a more comprehensive understanding of the issue. And the findings are clear: humans are responsible for the decline in snowpack in dozens of river basins across the Northern Hemisphere. Each degree of temperature increase will only exacerbate the snow melt, creating a dire snow future for us all.
The study analyzed 169 northern hemisphere river basins, revealing a significant 40-year downward trend in 70 of them. While a dozen basins showed an increasing trend, there was no notable trend in the remaining basins. In 23 of the shrinking snowpacks, the researchers were able to attribute the changes directly to climate change. In eight river basins, they even observed an unexpected paradox: climate change contributing to increased snowpack due to higher precipitation and cool temperatures.
Europe and North America, in particular, are experiencing some of the most significant losses in spring snowpack. River basins such as the Great Salt Lake, Merrimack, Connecticut, Susquehanna, Hudson, Delaware, Neva, Vistula, Dnieper, Don, and Danube are all witnessing the heartbreaking retreat of their once abundant snowpack.
One prime example of this phenomenon can be seen in the upper reaches of the Colorado River basin. Despite a winter temperature average of around 23 degrees (-5 degrees Celsius), cold enough for snow, the region is still losing its precious snowpack. It's a clear demonstration of the accelerating losses driven by human-induced climate change, as observed over the past four decades.
To document the fingerprints of human-caused warming, the researchers compared the real-world changes to fictional scenarios without climate change using computer models. Their analysis highlighted the alarming reality that 81 percent of the Northern Hemisphere snowpack resides in areas colder than 17.6 degrees. Yet, these regions are sparsely populated, with only 570 million people. Over 2 billion people live in areas where winter averages fall between 17.6 and 32 degrees (-8 and 0 degrees Celsius), making them more vulnerable to snowpack declines.
It's essential to understand that the changes we're witnessing are not gradual. Once temperatures surpass the 17.6-degree threshold, snow melt accelerates rapidly. Conversely, below this mark, slightly warmer temperatures may even result in increased snowfall and snowpack, as observed in certain areas of eastern Siberia.
The implications of this research extend beyond the joy and beauty of snow-covered landscapes. The ski industry, for instance, has long relied on abundant snowfall to attract winter enthusiasts. However, with shrinking snowpack, many ski areas struggle to operate, and some have been forced to close altogether. The larger corporate-run mountains have found ways to adapt by using snowmaking technology and constructing ski runs at higher elevations. But even they recognize that these measures are temporary solutions, and a more significant effort is needed to combat the root cause of the problem – climate change.
Aspen Skiing Company, operating in Colorado's Aspen Snowmass, is one of the ski industry pioneers embracing climate activism. They understand the urgency of advocating for climate-friendly policies if they want to continue thriving amidst a warming future. Opening and closing days may remain consistent due to snowmaking, but the need for long-term solutions to protect our environment is undeniable.
The study's findings serve as a wake-up call for us all. Our snow-covered landscapes are under threat, and our actions today will determine their fate tomorrow. The world's river basins are pleading with us to take immediate and decisive action to mitigate climate change. Time is of the essence, and we must act with force and at scale to secure a snow-filled future for generations to come.
