Smurfit Westrock Plc (SW), with a market cap of $21.6 billion, is a leading global provider of sustainable paper-based packaging solutions. Formed through the merger of Smurfit Kappa and WestRock in July 2024, the company operates in 40 countries, with over 500 packaging converting operations and 62 paper mills. The Dublin, Ireland-based paper giant is predicted to announce its first-quarter results on Thursday, May 1.
Ahead of the event, analysts expect Smurfit to report a non-GAAP profit of $0.65 per share, up a solid 66.7% from $0.39 per share reported in the year-ago quarter. However, the company has a grim earnings surprise history as it surpassed Wall Street’s bottom-line estimates once over the past four quarters while missing on three other occasions.
For the current year 2025, Smurfit is expected to deliver an adjusted EPS of $2.78, up 33.7% from $2.08 in fiscal 2024. In fiscal 2026, its earnings are expected to climb 28.8% year-over-year to $3.58 per share.
SW stock has dropped 24.3% this year, compared to the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 12.3% decline and the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund’s (XLY) 19.6% fall this year.
Smurfit Westrock’s shares fell 5.1% following the release of its fourth-quarter results on Feb. 12. While net sales surged to $7.5 billion, driven by acquisition-related growth and higher volumes, this figure still came in below analyst expectations, despite more than doubling from $2.9 billion a year earlier.
The company’s adjusted EBITDA jumped 160.9% year-over-year to $1.2 billion, and adjusted EPS rose to 34 cents from 19 cents in the prior-year quarter. However, earnings also missed consensus estimates by a wide margin of 50%. Interestingly, after the initial sell-off, the stock rebounded sharply, gaining 7.3% in the next trading session.
The consensus opinion on SW stock is highly upbeat, with an overall “Strong Buy” rating. Among the 14 analysts covering the stock, nine recommend “Strong Buy,” two advise “Moderate Buy,” and three suggest a “Hold” rating.
Its mean price target of $57.74 indicates a 41.6% upside potential from current price levels.
On the date of publication, Kritika Sarmah did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
