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Donald Trump is slowing down on campaign rallies — but doesn’t want to admit it.
The former president faces a difficult race against Vice President Kamala Harris, who is gaining on her Republican rival with a 2.4 lead in an average of recent national polls. Despite this, he appears to be slowing down his campaign events.
The Washington Post reports that Trump held 22 rallies from July 1 to August 10, 2016. During that same time frame this year, Trump held just eight.
While Trump often speaks with local media outlets in swing states and gives interviews to “friendly” national media organizations like Fox News, the slowdown in events is beginning to raise questions regarding his campaign strategy.
Last week, a reporter asked the former president why he wasn’t campaigning more during a meandering press conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate. Trump responded by calling the question “stupid.”
Now, campaign experts tell The Independent this slowdown in campaign rallies is likely the product of several factors — including his unpredictability on stage and off-putting theories that could turn off swing voters.
Trump has an issue with ‘message discipline,’ strategists say
Trump’s campaign could be strategically limiting the number of live rallies as a form of damage control, Evan Siegfried, a political strategist who previously worked on GOP campaigns, told The Independent.
The less he’s seen in public and at rallies, Siegfried said, the fewer opportunities there are for him to “riff and go off script” to spread conspiracy theories and grievances.
“The real people who are going to choose this election are in seven states, and they represent a very thin swath of the entire electorate in this country,” Siegfried said.
These falsehoods and grievances, such as Trump’s baseless claim that Harris “happened to turn Black” to win over voters, are “the crazy stuff” that can turn off swing voters, according to Siegfried.
“They don’t care about Donald Trump’s grievances – if anything they don’t like Donald Trump’s grievances, they don’t want to hear them,” he continued.
The ultimate problem, Siegfried said, is that Trump lacks “message discipline.” The strategist also noted his running mate, JD Vance, will continue to make major appearances on the campaign trail given his ability to stay on message.
Dr. Costas Panagopoulos, a political science professor at Northwestern University, agrees.
“There’s always a risk that Trump will say something that will backfire on the campaign trail,” he told The Independent
The slowdown in campaign events could also reasonably be attributed to security concerns following the assassination attempt and Trump’s old age, Dr. Panagopoulos said.
The Trump campaign, for its part, rejects the idea that there has been a slowdown in campaign events.
“These so-called ‘strategists’ have absolutely no idea what they are talking about,” Trump campaign spokesperson Karoline Leavitt told The Independent. “President Trump is working around the clock, whether it be speaking at rallies and fundraisers, holding hours-long press conferences, or sitting down for interviews with the media.”
The former president has also gone off-message on Truth Social, Siegfried said, as his posts are likely influenced by a small group of right-wingers.
“Trump basically lives in his country clubs, and a lot of people have access to him there, and some are not exactly in the mainstream of thought and have ideas that would be considered, putting it politely, bats*** crazy,” Siegfried told The Independent.
“Somebody just takes [Trump] aside and says, ‘Hey, did you hear about this?’ And he doesn’t go out and do his homework to fact check it, just puts it out there,” he continued.
Trump spreads baseless claims, attacks allies at recent rallies
Trump’s latest campaign stop was in Bozeman, Montana last week. While Trump is almost certain to win Montana come November, the state is home to a competitive Senate race that could decide party control of the chamber.
There, he spread a baseless theory that Harris orchestrated Joe Biden’s decision to step down.
“[Harris] was part of the cabal that got him out... They said, ‘we’ll do it the nice way or we’ll do it the hard way, Joe,’” Trump said. “We’ll use the 25th amendment and we’ll call you mentally incompetent and everybody will believe us. What they did is a terrible thing actually, they forced him out.”
“I hear [Biden is] going to make a comeback at the Democrat convention. He’s gonna walk into the room, and he’s gonna say: ‘I want my presidency back, I want another chance to debate Trump, I want another chance,’” he continued.
Meanwhile, at a campaign stop in the swing-state of Georgia earlier this month, Trump repeatedly attacked GOP Governor Brian Kemp.
Regardless of the reasoning, fewer campaign rallies will have a detrimental effect on Trump’s campaign, Dr. Panagopoulos said.
“There’s always a risk that Trump will say something that will backfire on the campaign trail,” he told The Independent. “Limiting the number of rallies is not the most optimal solution for that, because it just means that they’re limiting exposure to voters and others who will be crucial for them in this election.”
Ultimately, voters can pick up on the difference in energy between Trump and Harris, Dr. Panagopoulos said.
“That contrast is palpable in this race, at this moment, when you have one side doing so much and the other side seemingly pulling back.”
