La Niña won’t end before Christmas but the latest modelling from the Bureau of Meteorology is still Christmas come early. Following three back-to-back years of La Niña, the bureau has forecast a return to “neutral” in January or February 2023, giving the east and north-east of Australia potentially two of three months of summer (as it was actually designed).
“This summer is our one opportunity to have a normal weather system,” Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research director Dr Wenju Cai told Crikey.
The bureau’s ENSO Outlook (ENSO is short for El Nino-Southern Oscillation) runs a dial from blue La Niña through to white “inactive” and over to a red El Niño. Although it won’t shift for a few months, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) had already made the switch from negative (defined by warm water and rain) to neutral.
Also in the meteorological mix is the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), which is already weakening from its positive state (a catalyst for too much rain in eastern Australia and not enough rain in western Tasmania). It’s set to neutralise throughout December.
The less influential Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently weak and will remain so.
In short: all good news.
The bad news? Following a rare respite from extremes, Cai says we’ll likely head into another El Niño weather event next year.
“The strong multi-year La Niña followed a strong El Niño,” said Cai. “Now, the stronger La Niña will create a stronger, more intense El Niño. It’s a loop. We are not breaking the cycle.”
Expect hot and dry drought conditions next summer.
Crikey modelling suggests you do not waste a minute getting your togs out and on. Seize this summer as if it is to be the last… it could well be.
