Karnataka that has been consistently maintaining a Test Positivity Rate (TPR) of less than 0.5% since mid-March is seeing a slight rise in this vital parameter from April 11. The State’s daily TPR rose from 0.56% on April 10 to 0.78% the next day and touched 1.02% on Thursday.
As many as 483 positive cases have been reported in the last ten days. On an average, the State has been reporting nearly 60 cases daily. This month, the State reported above 70 cases just in two days (77 cases on April 7 and 92 cases on April 12). On Thursday, the State saw 100 new cases, 91 of which were from Bengaluru Urban alone.
This rise in TPR comes at a time when COVID-19 cases are on the rise in a few States including Delhi. However, COVID-19 experts in the State attributed the current rise in TPR to local fluctuations and said there is no need to panic as of now.
State Health Commissioner Randeep D. said there is no need to panic as of now. “We will have to wait and watch if there is any rise in hospitalisation, clustering of cases or if any target groups such as children or senior citizens are getting infected,” he said.
Experts, who pointed out that it is prudent at this juncture to continue compulsory face masking and follow COVID appropriate behaviour, said the State should now adopt a cautious approach.
“This rise in TPR could be due to local fluctuations. While there is nothing alarming as of now, we should keep a watch to see if there is a steady rise in cases over a week. If that happens, we can conclude that local surge has begun in the State,” said M.K. Sudarshan, chairman of the State’s COVID-19 Technical Advisory Committee (TAC).
“With reports of a surge in cases in some States and many countries such as China, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea, the threat still looms large. In the absence of guidelines from the Centre to screen international arrivals, we had recommended that the State should tele-monitor the health of all those who arrive from the countries that are at risk,” he said.
Apart from taking all precautions, most importantly masking up, people should take the booster shots and avoid non-essential travel, Dr. Sudarshan asserted.
Spike in cases likely in four to six weeks
C.N. Manjunath, nodal officer for labs and testing in the State’s COVID-19 task force, said the fourth wave has begun in India. “However, the sequence of spread has been uniform in all the three waves and a similar pattern is expected this time too. The surge that begins in Delhi, moves to Mumbai and Kerala and then to Karnataka. Going by this, Karnataka is likely to see a spike in the next four to six weeks,” he said.
Pointing out that the severity may not be high as over 90% of the population is vaccinated, Dr. Manjunath said the same pattern of rapid rise and rapid fall is likely to be seen in the fourth wave too.
Increase tests
C.N. Manjunath further said it would be advisable to increase the daily tests from the existing 7,000-8,000 to nearly 10,000-15,000. “As it is difficult to convince people to get tested now, all admitted patients in hospitals should be tested. This along with the regular testing can give us a fair idea of a surge, if there is any,” Dr. Manjunath added.
