Sleepers and Value Picks: Tight Ends

The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will unfold and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Any green highlight means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red highlight signifies an overvalued player that is a bad value or just too high of a risk for that spot. No color means the pick is a reasonable value at that spot.

See also:
 

Average Draft order – Value picks

ADP	Tm	Tight End	Starter Value
1	KC	Travis Kelce	Maybe the greatest fantasy career of all time.
2	BAL	Mark Andrews	A lock for Top-5 and the only tight end to ever net a No.1 fantasy rank during reign of Travis Kelce.
3	MIN	T.J. Hockenson	Fits into the Vikings scheme and reaps the   benefit of defenses chasing Justin Jefferson.
4	SF	George Kittle	Top-4 in four of the last five years. He gets dinged up, some years more than others. Final four games with Brock Purdy only totaled seven touchdowns. Plenty of upside.
5	NYG	Darren Waller	Agreed there is some upside in landing with the Giants, but he’s been average at best other than 2019 and 2020. Banged up the last two years, also 30 years old. Not many tight ends offer the potential for difference making fantasy stats, but his risk makes this a few picks too early. Derek Carr’s worst year was better than Daniel Jones best year.
6	ATL	Kyle Pitts	2022 was an off year thanks to a new offense and Marcus Mariota. Pitts is still supremely talented. Coming off a torn MCL makes this spot reasonable and the Falcons passing schedule should make it profitable.
7	PHI	Dallas Goedert	He ends up around No. 10 every year but that’s because he misses three to five games. He’s a great start when he suits up.
8	JAX	Evan Engram	After struggling for four years with Daniel Jones, went to Jacksonville and had a career year with Trevor Lawrence. Just signed a three-year deal to keep the momentum.
9	PIT	Pat Freiermuth	He has a good shot at being better than this ranking, and yet three concussions in two years make him a risky bet. Solid pick this late but think about carrying another tight end just in case.
10	CLE	David Njoku	Never better than No. 9 in his six seasons. Browns get a full year of Deshaun Watson, but brought in more wideouts to help the passing. Didn’t connect that well with Watson in the few joint games last year.
11	BUF	Dalton Kincaid	Bills ranked No. 28 in tight end throws last year and this is as high as any Bills tight end reached in six years of HC Sean McDermott. He may end up elite, but   rookie tight ends on teams that are already Top-3 passing isn’t something to rely on. Next year…
12	HOU	Dalton Schultz	Top-10 for the last three years in Dallas and now with Houston where they’ll want to throw but the receivers are mostly “unproven”. Nice situation for dependable hands close by rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud.

 

Sleepers and overvalued players

ADP	Tm	Tight End	Depth Considerations
13	TEN	Chigoziem Okonkwo	He’s not a fantasy starter but he may become one. Okonkwo is a popular sleeper   this year and for good reason. His rookie year of 32-450-3 was encouraging. DeAndre Hopkins may hold Okonkwo back, so he’s a fantasy backup for now.
14	DEN	Greg Dulcich	Another popular sleeper and he managed a 33-411-2 rookie season with ten games played. He started to pick up steam later in the year and merits a roster spot that could end up as a fantasy starter.
15	LAR	Tyler Higbee	He’s   30 years old and enters Year 8 with the Rams.  Managed a No. 5 finish to 2023 while the Rams offense imploded. Matt Stafford is back and Rams did not add new receivers. Won’t win your league, but won’t lose it for you either.
16	CHI	Cole Kmet	Finished No. 7 last year but was last man standing. Bears added DJ Moore and get Darnell Mooney back. His outlook is dialed back but Kmet is a talented receiver when given the chance.
17	DET	Sam LaPorta	He’ll develop into a solid, and maybe spectacular, tight end. But the rookie has plenty to learn this year and the Lions have other options when they pass. Dynasty pick? Sure. Reliable pick this year? Not on my team.
18	CIN	Irv Smith Jr.	Never amounted to much in Minnesota despite high draft pick. Oddly goes from team with the No. 2 wideouts to the team that have the No. 3 wideouts. He’s no difference maker and not even a great bye week filler.
19	LV	Michael Mayer	The optimism placed on rookie tight ends has been overly kind in every case other than Kyle Pitts. Mayer could easily be the best receiving tight end from this year’s class, but is unlikely to offer the consistency to merit a fantasy start. He’s a fine pick and hold just in case, but the odds are against him offering any difference making stats.
20	NO	Juwan Johnson	Solid fantasy backup with seven scores last year. His ceiling is limited, but he’s a serviceable weekly fill in. Change in quarterback can only help.
21	LAC	Gerald Everett	First year with the Chargers ended as the No. 11 fantasy tight end. His production is capped by those wideouts and adding Quentin Johnson won’t help Everett improve on his 58 catches. He’s still a worthy backup.
22	ARI	Zach Ertz	He is 32 years old and returning from a torn ACL/MCL. Just no. Second-year Trey McBride is a better choice if you need a Cardinals’ tight end. And honestly, have you ever needed a Cardinals’ tight end?
23	NO	Taysom Hill	If your league considers him as a tight end, why not this deep? The plan is to throw to him more often and he’s making almost $10M this year.
24	NE	Hunter Henry	Solid backup pick and has shown chemistry with Mac Jones last year and again this summer.

Jelani Woods (IND) – Second-year tight end that’s 6-7 and yet runs a 4.6 40-time. The new offense should treat Woods as the new Dallas Goedert in HC Shane Steichen’s scheme.

Trey McBride (ARI) – Another second-year tight end and he plays on a Cardinals team that may very well end up throwing more to their tight end than ever before. Worth tracking at the least.