The Average Draft order shows a general picture of how your draft will unfold and where values/sleepers and bad values/busts likely exist. Any green highlight means the player is a good value that could be taken earlier. A red highlight signifies an overvalued player that is a bad value or just too high of a risk for that spot. No color means the pick is a reasonable value at that spot.
See also:
Sleepers and Value Picks: Quarterbacks
Sleepers and Value Picks: Running Backs
Sleepers and Value Picks: Wide Receivers
Sleepers and Value Picks: Tight Ends
Average Draft order – Value picks
| ADP | Tm | Running Back | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | IND | Jonathan Taylor | Was No. 1 last year, has better schedule this year. Same system designed around him. |
| 2 | CAR | Christian McCaffrey | When he plays, he consistently a top fantasy play. When he plays, he’s a dual-threat and a monster weekly starter. When he plays… When he plays… feel lucky? |
| 3 | TEN | Derrick Henry | King Henry was mortal last year. After two seasons of historic usage, the foot gave out last October. He’s back and they’ll be significantly lightening his load to keep him fresh… who am I kidding? The only question on most plays is which side of the line he’ll be crashing through. |
| 4 | LAC | Austin Ekeler | He will miss one or two games. But he’ll always challenge for most receptions by a RB. Draft Spiller and sleep better. |
| 5 | PIT | Najee Harris | 381 touches as a rookie. New QB(s), same mediocre O-line and worse schedule but hey, may end up with another 381 touches. |
| 6 | MIN | Dalvin Cook | Great when healthy but always misses three or four games. New offense intends to throw more, run less. Still a safe pick but likely to take a small step back from previous seasons. |
| 7 | DET | D’Andre Swift | Productive when he isn’t missing three or four games per year. Great O-line and great schedule points at a career-high year if he stays on the field. |
| 8 | CIN | Joe Mixon | Blew up as the No. 4 RB last year. Dangerous passing offense means Mixon gets less focus. Rock-solid Top-10 with upside. |
| 9 | CLE | Nick Chubb | This is about where he ends up every year. Top rusher but only around one reception per game. |
| 10 | GB | Aaron Jones | Loss of Davante Adams may mean Jones could top his career-high 52 catches of last year, but GB has a terrible rushing schedule and AJ Dillon gets more involved. This is a little high, but his risk is balanced with minor upside as a receiver. |
| 11 | NO | Alvin Kamara | This is a steal if his legal situation gets pushed out to 2023 and he plays all 17 games. He’s always a lock for Top-10 and offense remains the same from last year. |
| 12 | DEN | Javonte Williams | No.17 as a rookie last year, gets a better QB in Russell Wilson. He’d be a Top-10 lock if Melvin Gordon did not re-sign. One of the most talented young backs. |
| 13 | NYG | Saquon Barkley | Third time a charm or that dog just won’t hunt anymore? This assumes that he’ll be back to form but miss a few games. Bad O-line a little better but schedule is even worse. |
| 14 | TB | Leonard Fournette | Oddity is that Fournette alternates great seasons with down years. Signed a big contract and is reliable for the Bucs, but 2021 was No. 6, 2020 was No. 34, 2019 was No. 7, 2018 was No. 38. Needs to break that trend. |
| 15 | DAL | Ezekiel Elliott | Down 2021 with a torn PCL but still his fifth-straight Top-10 season. Some believe Tony Pollard is better, but not the DAL coaching staff. O-line still an advantage and this assumes he has the worst year of his career. Because of voidable contract years, this is actually a contract season for him so plenty to play for in 2022. |
| 16 | CHI | David Montgomery | Great 2020 was sandwiched by two years around No. 20. New offense hints more use of Khalil Herbert, so Montgomery remains solid but less upside and runs behind arguably the worst O-line in the NFL. |
| 17 | ARI | James Conner | First year in ARI was best of his career. He was No. 5 last year, so this seems a hard drop after scoring 18 TDs in 2021. Will get banged up for a game or two, but this is a great value pick for a guy that faced the No. 32 rushing schedule strength and upgrades to only average. |
| 18 | BAL | J.K. Dobbins | Blew an ACL a year ago and missed last season. Was No. 28 as a rookie and still plays in a committee backfield. Better schedule this year but O-line a little worse. Plus BAL told Lamar Jackson he can run wild again. |
| 19 | WAS | Antonio Gibson | Has never been worse than No. 14 in his two seasons and WAS has a nice upgrade in running strength of schedule. But Commanders leaning to more of a committee this year with a healthy J.D. McKissic and short-yardage rookie Brian Robinson. This is a safe spot. Maybe less upside now. |
| 20 | LAR | Cam Akers | Finished rookie season on a high note, but then tore Achilles. Somehow returned for playoffs but looked bad. More risk here than this spot should have. HC Sean McVay even referred to Darrell Henderson as big factor in the backfield. Also drops from No. 3 down to No. 24 rushing strength of schedule. |
| 21 | SF | Elijah Mitchell | Everything they expected – from Trey Sermon. Mitchell was one of the best surprises of 2021. Was wildly productive with five 100-yard rushing games. Also missed six games and suffered five injuries (shoulder, rib, finger, concussion, knee) all in one year. Just very risky on an offense that changes the backfield constantly. Raheem Mostert was a similar star in 2019. |
| 22 | LVR | Josh Jacobs | Always Top-20 and was No. 8 in 2020. But all new coaches bring in an RBBC history and drafted Zamir White to help. Kenyan Drake returns from an ankle injury and worse yet, Raiders fall from No. 20 to No. 32 rushing schedule. |
| 23 | JAC | Travis Etienne | Love that upside. Etienne was lost for 2021 with a Lis Franc injury but in his own words, he picked a good year to take off. The 1.25 pick of 2021 is healthy and wowing in camp. Dual Threat. Has about as much upside as any other RB. Let him shine in a preseason game and this shoots much higher. |
| 24 | KC | Clyde Edwards-Helaire | No arguing that the Chiefs first-round pick of 2019 was a disappointment. And this rank is about where he landed as a rookie. He’s suffered ankle, hip, MCL and shoulder injuries over just two years. But he’s slated to do more as a receiver with Tyreek Hill gone. There is still upside here, but one more year of injury and under-performance will be too much. Worth a shot at this spot. |
Sleepers and overvalued players
| ADP | Tm | Running Back | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | NE | Damien Harris | This seems like a steal since he scored 15 TDs last year, but OC Josh McDaniels is gone and Rhamondre Stevenson keeps getting hyped. Harris a solid pick but lacks upside. |
| 26 | GB | A.J. Dillon | Dillon was the No. 22 RB last year but that was filling in for Aaron Jones twice while going against the No. 2 best rushing schedule. This year it falls to No. 25. Not a bad pick, just a bit high. |
| 27 | NYJ | Breece Hall | Everyone loves the first RB drafted. The rookie Hall lands on one of least productive offenses of 2021 but the NYJ schedule and O-line are much improved from last year. Prototypical workhorse back that can catch the ball. Plenty of upside if passing game also improves. |
| 28 | PHI | Miles Sanders | Sanders has declined in each season and missed four games in each of the last two years. Dogged with knee, hamstring, ankle and hand injuries. Philly wants to pass more with A.J. Brown on the team and it looks more like an RBBC involving Kenneth Gainwell as well. |
| 29 | SEA | Rashaad Penny | He was so great in four games at the end of 2021 – versus the worst four defenses. Otherwise, his entire career has been the occasional rushing attempt between injuries. Seahawks drafted Kenneth Walker as the second RB this year, so even they don’t think Penny’s late-season burst was a new normal. |
| 30 | CLE | Kareem Hunt | He gets banged up, but his moderate fantasy value skyrockets if Nick Chubb gets hurt. |
| 31 | DAL | Tony Pollard | Nice spot and productive when given the chance and holds at least this much value even with Ezekiel Elliott healthy. Expectation is that he sees more receptions since DAL receivers are banged up to start the year and Amari Cooper is gone. |
| 32 | BUF | Devin Singletary | Improved all three years and turned it up nicely to finish 2021. BUF is a pass-first offense and they added Isaiah Spiller to their mostly committee approach, but powerful offense, good O-line and the No. 1 rushing schedule strength should see Singletary challenge for RB2 fantasy status. |
| 33 | JAC | James Robinson | Tore his Achilles at the end of last season but may be ready to play early in the season, if not Week 1. But scary injury to return from and Travis Etienne will drain much work. He needs to prove health in training camp or a very risky pick. |
| 34 | MIA | Chase Edmonds | Okay, so he didn’t take over in Arizona and while he is listed as No. 1 in Miami, he probably won’t be more than a piece of a committee. As a late RB3 you could do worse. Marginal upside but should offer roughly this level. |
| 35 | DEN | Melvin Gordon | New coaches in Denver may not reprise the same committee backfield as last year. Then again, HC Nathaniel Hackett imports the GB scheme that used Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. Should be a safe pick for a back that historically has always been Top-20. |
| 36 | SEA | Kenneth Walker III | The second RB drafted in 2021 is a 4.38/40 speedster out of Michigan State that ran for 1,636 yards and 19 TDs last year. The only one above him on the depth chart is the always-injured Rashaad Penny. Yeah. Love this pick and willing to wait a few weeks for big things to happen. |
| 36 | ATL | Cordarrelle Patterson | Patterson made the shockingly effective switch to RB last year but then sputtered by the end of the season. He’s 31 years old and probably even less likely to handle more than 150 carries. Worth it as an RB4 to see if he starts adding tons of catches again as he did early in 2021. |
| 37 | NE | Rhamondre Stevenson | Saw much more use after Week 10 last year and even logged two 100-yard rushing efforts. Expectations are that he will see even more action and is slated to start catching more passes. The NE backfield has long been a source of frustration and dashed hopes, but Stevenson as an RB4 is just too good to pass up. Just his pace last year would have been around No. 24 had he played in all games. |
| 38 | MIN | Alexander Mattison | Back up for Dalvin Cook. Three years and never better than this ranking. |
| 39 | NYJ | Michael Carter | Jets drafted Breece Hall and now Carter is just the No. 2 for the Jets – when has that ever paid off? Good handcuff for the Hall owner but likely not enough production to merit a fantasy start unless Hall was out. |
| 40 | BUF | James Cook | Bills drafted Cook as the third RB taken this year with the plan to make him into a pass-catching back to complement Devin Singletary as the main rusher. Anyone catching passes in the Bills’ offense needs to be owned. Reasonable handcuff for the Singletary owner but should carry stand-alone fantasy value. |
| 41 | KC | Ronald Jones II | The info on Jones is conflicting. He’s said to be challenging Clyde Edwards-Helaire to be a starter, and also speculated to not make the 53-man cut. Doesn’t help that KC has given first-team reps to undrafted Isaiah Pacheco who will also play special teams unlike Jones. As an RB4, he carries some upside and if he flops, it won’t kill you. |
| 42 | LAR | Darrell Henderson | HC Sean McVay referred to his backfield as being both Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson. Not Akers and his backup. The Rams like to pass anyway and Henderson has been around the No. 30 back for the last two years. No game changer, but worth owning. |
| 43 | IND | Nyheim Hines | Was deemphasized last year but ranked No. 17 in 2020 when he caught 63 passes and scored seven TDs. HC Frank Reich said he wants the 2020 version of Hines back this year and that makes this a steal. |
| 44 | WAS | J.D. McKissic | Like Nyheim Hines, McKissic is not going to save your fantasy team but should see a return to an every-week value play in PPR leagues. He caught 80 passes in 2020 but missed six games last year. Nice value. |
| 45 | MIA | Raheem Mostert | In a best-ball league as a final pick maybe. But chances that Mostert is going to offer reliable fantasy points is too hard to buy into. |
| 46 | HOU | Dameon Pierce | Fourth-round pick could challenge Marlon Mack as the top back but a committee is expected, the rushing schedule is No. 30 and the O-line remains one of the worst. Upside here around the start of RB5, but not a lot. |
| 47 | HOU | Marlon Mack | Starting RB in Houston but virtually no upside and more likely to fall from this level. |
| 48 | SEA | Chris Carson | Retired. Will wash out of ADP. |
| 49 | NO | Mark Ingram | No. 2 in NO should be gold if Alvin Kamara is suspended, but that is no longer a lock (at least for this year) and Ingram is 32 years old and a nonfactor since 2019. |
| 50 | LAC | Isaiah Spiller | Great handcuff for the Austin Ekeler owner but hard to reach since he tends to be taken before the Ekeler owner can get there. Solid RB5 that could be huge if Ekeler missed much time. |
| 51 | CAR | Chuba Hubbard | Even with Christian McCaffrey flaming out last year, Hubbard only No. 36. Just a handcuff with marginal value even if McCaffrey misses time. |
| 52 | ATL | Tyler Allgeier | Good-sized back (5-11, 220) could beat Damien Williams out to be the No. 2 in Atlanta, and Cordarrelle Patterson faded last year. Bad schedule and bad O-line is a major challenge, but Allgeier could end up as the No. 1 RB in Atlanta this year. |
| 53 | DET | Jamaal Williams | D’Andre Swift tends to miss several games per year and Williams ranked No. 43 last season. DET has a great O-line and schedule, so Williams has minor value regardless and becomes a starting consideration when Swift gets hurt. |
| 54 | PHI | Kenneth Gainwell | Ended as the No. 40 RB as a rookie last year and led the Eagles backfield since Miles Sanders was injured. Has minor stand-alone value and upside in this improving offense. |
| 55 | TB | Rachaad White | A popular sleeper-type this summer, White takes over for Ronald Jones as the No. 2 back in TB. Worth owning in that productive offense but likely needs Leonard Fournette to be injured to offer any reliable fantasy starts. |
| 56 | ARI | Darrel Williams | Comes over from the Chiefs where he was the No. 21 back last year. Replaces Chase Edmonds as the No. 2 back in Arizona who was No. 33 in 2021. Should offer much more value than this spot and Conner usually misses a couple of games. |
| 57 | MIA | Sony Michel | Certainly Michel has value after a surprising year with the Rams, but the Miami backfield is a mess that’s hard to buy into. |
| 58 | BAL | Gus Edwards | Torn ACL last September and Ravens O-line not as good. Staying away from players returning from blown knees and playing in a committee backfield. |
| 59 | SF | Tyrion Davis-Price | Why not? SF has a tendency to make stars out of surprising players. Elijah Mitchell was the newest star last year, before that, Jeff Wilson, before that, Raheem Mostert, before that, Matt Breida… Davis-Price was the fifth RB drafted this year, so he’s not just a bottom of the roster filler. |
| 60 | NYG | Matt Breida | Handcuff for Saquon Barkley. No real value to anyone else and even if Barkley crashes yet again, Giants have a bad schedule, bad O-line and are installing a new offense. |
Best of the rest
Brian Robinson Jr. (WAS) – Firmly No. 3 behind Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic, the ex-Alabama bruiser could see short-yardage work and steps in if either starter is injured.
Hassan Haskins (TEN) – The Titans offense is meant to run and Derrick Henry proved he was not immortal last year with the foot injury. Haskins already impressed in camp and will be a hot commodity if Henry misses any time.
Khalil Herbert (CHI) – New offense in Chicago changes backfield roles and Herbert looks likely to receive more work. A needed handcuff for the David Montgomery owner, but may have stand-alone fantasy value anyway.
