This Sunday evening, we were witnesses to one of the most remarkable football games of our lifetime. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes were on another planet with both players amassing an EPA/play over 0.500, combining for seven touchdowns, zero interceptions and only six punts.
Sunday’s game—and the weekend in general—epitomized the seismic shift that we have been seeing in the NFL over the last decade. If your quarterback is playing at a superb level, you can overcome a subpar defense.
These two quarterbacks exemplify the ultimate victory when you bet on a player with sky-high traits. Neither were polished college players or even considered successful starters for their respective programs. There were major accuracy issues with Allen and questions about Mahomes’ decision-making abilities, including whether the Air Raid would translate to the NFL.
But there are two things both players possessed that has shown an immaculate ability to translate: outside of structure play and immense arm talent.
The NFL is largely a reactionary and copycat league. We have seen it time and time again that one organization shows some progressive thinking, the rest of the league will copy that process to produce their own levels of success. The most recent examples are teams starting to utilize RPOs, the massive expansion of wide zone and focus on rotating defensive lineman. The next trend is becoming glaringly obvious: high upside quarterbacks with elite arm talent.
