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Bristol Post
Bristol Post
Sport
Will Freeman

Six Nations supercomputer predicts Six Nations outcome with England's chances revealed

This year's Six Nations is possibly the tightest to call in many years, with five of the six teams thought to have a chance of claiming victory.

After missing out on last year's title in a dramatic final day defeat to Scotland, France are the popular choice having beaten the All Blacks in scintillating fashion back in November.

However, a supercomputer has kicked that prediction into touch with its conclusion that England should be considered favourites for the championship.

QBE Business Insurance have forecast that England have a 46% chance of claiming the title this year despite injuries to captain Owen Farrell and rampaging centre Manu Tuilagi.

Next best is Ireland on 17%, Wales and France are on 15%, Scotland at 7% and Italy 0%.

The computer also predicts that England would draw 20-20 with Scotland in their opening match with even Eddie Jones feeling that England are underdogs in this year's Calcutta Cup..

“Scotland are red-hot favourites,” said Jones. “They’ve got to cope with that expectation. There’ll be 67,000 fans and they’ll be thinking about all the fans watching the game on the [TV].

"They have to carry that burden. Every game for us is the same – we’re expected to win, so it’s no different for us. We want to get on the front foot and take Scotland on.

"It’s the first time I’ve had the experience of going up there when Scotland have been red-hot favourites. They’re expected to win.

"They’re well coached by Gregor, they’ve got some outstanding players, but that expectation of winning is a different pressure to handle and I’m not sure how they handle that.

"What we know is that we’re well prepared and we’re coming after them."

Ireland have been forecast to beat Wales 25-18 in the Dublin curtain-raiser, meanwhile France's clash with Italy in Paris has the hosts as overwhelming favourites with a 42-17 result predicted.

QBE say: "The QBE Predictor is calculated using a complex mathematical formula and computer model by catastrophe planners at QBE.

"The Predictor applies techniques actuaries use to predict the impact of catastrophes such as natural disasters and simulates the tournament 10,000 times producing outcomes from 150,000 games with every match replicated by generating a number of tries, conversions and penalties scored by each team.

"The predictions are based on analysis by QBE actuaries of how well each team has played in the past against opposition of a similar ranking, as well as the success ratio for kickers, the impact on each team playing at home or away, and the international experience of each team captain."

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