At the start of the Six Nations, England would have envisaged going to Paris tomorrow for a Grand Slam showdown.
As it is, only France can claim a clean sweep and, instead, England are playing under a different kind of pressure.
Defeat in Paris could mean they finish fifth in the Six Nations for a second year in a row, which England have not experienced before.
Given France are chasing a first Grand Slam in 12 years, England have been billed as party poopers, but in reality they have their own worries to focus on.
“It’s more about having our own party. We’ve got a wonderful opportunity to play at the Stade de France, which is one of the most iconic sporting stadiums in the world,” said head coach Eddie Jones.
“We get to play in a game where France have had a great Six Nations and we want to finish the Six Nations strongly, so it’s about creating our own party rather than spoiling France’s.”
England will not be spraying the champagne around if they beat France, but it would at least lift the mood after a disappointing Six Nations.
It has been a difficult Championship for Jones, who lost his captain Owen Farrell on the eve of the tournament. Fitness issues have continued to cause problems, most notably with Manu Tuilagi, and the overall feeling from the outside looking in has been one of stagnation.
That view is not shared by Jones and his players, though, who believe progress is being made as this ‘New England’ take shape. Victory in Paris would certainly back up that belief, but this will not be a game blessed with the flowing rugby that England want to play going forward.
Instead, Jones is anticipating an aerial onslaught from France, who kick the ball more than any other side in rugby. Only when they have field position do they become more expansive.
England are aware of that threat, so have George Furbank at full-back, with Freddie Steward moving to the wing. Jack Nowell completes a back-three that should do well under the high-ball.
Furbank’s selection is a surprise, given he has drifted in and out of the England camp since his debut against France in February 2020, but it underlines Jones’s plan to nullify the French’s kicking game.
Steward on the wing is an even greater surprise, however, the fact his opposite man, Gabin Villiere, is seven inches shorter than him explains the thinking. England will want to use their own kicking game to cause problems.
“You don’t have to be Einstein to work out we could have an advantage in that area,” said Jones.
But how much do England have in the tank after last week’s punishing defeat by Ireland, which they played with 14 men for basically the whole game?
Five changes to the starting XV hints at some of the toll that match has taken, as does the fact England modified their training schedule this week.
They have had just one full-bore session, which took place on Wednesday, and yesterday the players had free time.
“Some have gone to the Eiffel Tower, others are watching Cheltenham races,” said Jones. “They’re recovering, there’s good spirit and we’ll be ready to go.”
Jones will hope the changes have paid off, because the prospect of another fifth-place finish will surely be difficult for him to swallow.
The World Cup next year in France is coming ever closer and right now England look a real work in progress.
Victory tomorrow would, however, give them the foundations to build from and quieten those questioning their direction of travel.
