Listening to Eddie Jones this week, it would be easy to consider England the plucky underdogs heading up to Edinburgh in the hope of a rare upset in Saturday’s Calcutta Cup clash.
Since Jones took charge with a win at Murrayfield seven Six Nations ago, it has not been unusual to hear mind-games, particularly regarding the favourites’ tag, lobbed around before England’s bigger Tests. Scotland, he says, are “red-hot favourites” who must cope with expectation. England, meanwhile, “have had a number of obstacles thrown at us”.
Jones knows what he is doing. He has expertly presented his team as underdogs in the past, and found a special performance. Take, for a start, the wins over Ireland and New Zealand in 2019. He knows, too, that the idea of Scotland being favourites sits uncomfortably with the very national psyche.
His Scotland counterpart, Gregor Townsend, recognised that, saying on Thursday: “Every coach does this little song and dance going into a game trying to convince the media they are underdogs and telling the players their backs are against the wall, ‘We’re going to this hostile place’.
“The bookies pick the favourites and we’re not the favourites with them.”
Townsend is right but, looking at recent history and the two teamsheets, Jones has a point.
Scotland won at Twickenham last year, while England have won one of the past four meetings.
Scotland look settled and seasoned, boasting the grit of Jamie Ritchie and Chris Harris alongside the fizz of Finn Russell and Stuart Hogg. They look more balanced and are able to leave class acts out. They have an average of 37 caps per man, and 13 of the 15 also started in the final game of last year’s campaign, the historic win in Paris.
With form and familiarity everything, there is not even space for Cameron Redpath, star man on Test debut in this fixture last year, because he has not played enough at inside-centre since returning from injury.
The sheer breadth of England’s player pool means that even the loss of several world-class players to injury — the centres and back five of the scrum have been badly hit — does not see them scratching around for a team. But the side Jones has opted for is, well, a scratch team.
Seven starters have 10 caps or fewer. Two players make their first starts since 2018. Jones has picked another new centre combination, as well as new blends in the back-row and back three. One starter got out of Covid isolation yesterday.
Jones has thrown caution to the wind. His front-row is wild and spiky, his back-row as mobile and breakdown-focused as any he has selected. The backline is full of kickers for territory and catchers of high balls. It contains three men whose preferred jersey is 13, two whose preferred position is full-back and four with experience at fly-half. The first receiver will surely change constantly.
The forecast is dismal — Jones said yesterday “you don’t take your board shorts and suncream up to Edinburgh for a Six Nations game” — yet England are clearly coming to play.
Jones knows Scotland will target his rookie conductor, Marcus Smith, so he is surrounded with experience. They lack an obvious focal ballcarrier but on his big bench Jones has given himself a safety blanket in Jamie George, Joe Marler, George Ford and Jack Nowell.
For these teams, this is much more than just a centuries-old grudge match. Each has just two home games in this campaign, set to be the most open, with five genuine contenders to win the tournament, in recent years. If either wish to keep pace in the title race with France and Ireland, who both beat the All Blacks in November, defeat at Murrayfield is not an option.
