Even civil servants in 10 Downing Street would struggle to find reasons for a party to celebrate Welsh rugby right now.
As Wales head into the 2022 Six Nations a mixture of recrimination, hysteria and introspection hangs over the branch of our game which is supposed to underpin the fortunes of the national team.
The four regions reside in the doldrums, yet while claims abound that we’ve never had it so bad when it comes to Cardiff, Dragons, Ospreys and Scarlets, history has taught us the folly of expecting a direct translation to the Test arena.
T’was always thus. One of the triumphs of the Warren Gatland era was that Wales consistently managed success in the Six Nations in spite of, rather than because of, the state of elite domestic rugby.
The question, as we head into the annual instalment of passion and intrigue across the nerve centres of northern hemisphere rugby, is whether Wayne Pivac and his henchmen can do likewise this time around.
They did not manage it last November. For all that Wales beat Australia in the final game, the series was dogged by a scratchy and unreliable lineout, a lack of physicality and yardage at the gain-line and a bluntness in attack which posed legitimate questions about the galvanising methods of backs coach Stephen Jones.
The hope is that Wales have taken on board the more constructive elements of the criticism they received before Christmas, and have had sufficient time to carry out remedial work.
We’re about to find out.
Set your watch by the cliché about the tournament being one of momentum, a team’s fortunes being dependent on the outcome of the first game. While tedious, however, it’s also true.
The portents, as Wales prepare to face Ireland in Dublin, aren’t good. They seldom are.
Irish coach Andy Farrell radiated quiet confidence at last week's tournament launch, confirming that the only injury concern among a group of players conditioned by provincial swagger is lock Iain Henderson.
His counterpart Pivac, meanwhile, pitched up to the same launch having already highlighted the absence from his party of more than 600 caps worth of talent and experience, prompting cynical mutterings that the New Zealander might be getting his excuses in early.
When the injury list includes totems like Alun Wyn Jones, George North, Leigh Halfpenny, Taulupe Faletau and Justin Tipuric, you may conclude Pivac has every right to circle them in red felt-tip.
But the Six Nations is an unforgiving arena. Wales expects – even accounting for the walking wounded, the pall emanating from regional incompetence and the disruption of the pandemic, which it should be said has spared nobody.
A Wales Six Nations win in Dublin has happened just twice in 22 years – in 2000 and 2012 – and it’s perhaps the victory of 10 years ago we should turn to for succour when faced with the bookmakers’ odds this time around.
Halfpenny’s penalty, drilled low between the sticks 13 seconds from the end of normal time after the then Cardiff man had assumed kicking duties because of an early Rhys Priestland shank, handed Wales a 23-21 win that day, belying pre-match expectations.
A thunderous Grand Slam ensued, another one of the Welsh variety which very few rugby sages saw coming.
Wales have form for thumbing their noses at the doom-mongers, for finding a way to win when they seemingly have no right to do so.
And they will have to tear up the preview narrative again as winter turns to spring in the coming weeks.
Reasons for excitement and optimism do exist. The emergence of young Dragons back row Taine Basham was arguably the main fillip of a stodgy autumn campaign. It will be fascinating to see if he can take his progress onto another level.
Ellis Jenkins’ presence as something more than an undercooked talisman returning to the top table is also a focal point, as is the question of whether rookies like Dewi Lake and others can bring their influence to bear.
The elevation of the talkative Dan Biggar to the captaincy is another sub-plot. Precisely how long Alun Wyn Jones will be missing is unclear – latest bulletins suggest a quicker return to fitness than anticipated – but Biggar is clearly going to assume leadership responsibility for the opening block of fixtures against Ireland and the Scots.
His effect on his peers on the training ground and in the dressing room is far less quantifiable than his influence throughout 80 minutes of on-field combat.
Biggar has mountains of experience to fall back on when the big tactical calls need to be made. More pertinent is whether he can turn his tendency to rub referees up the wrong way by moaning into something more respectful and beneficial to the cause.
The Northampton man would do well to consider the vastly underrated diplomacy Sam Warburton brought to bear while in possession of the Wales and Lions armbands.
How many points it was worth, we will never know, but player-official interaction matters. Getting it right can be the difference – as Warburton demonstrated in the third Lions Test against New Zealand in 2017. Getting it wrong can be terminal to a team’s hopes. It’s one reason why England may not miss the injured Owen Farrell as much as some fear.
Suffice to say, a Wales victory at the Aviva Stadium in their opening game on Saturday week would comfortably trump the Dublin upset of a decade ago. Comfortably.
So what of the opposition?
The Irish, as they so often do, look formidable. Not least in the wake of their remarkable November beating of the All Blacks.
Their paltry number of Grand Slams – they have three compared to Wales’ 12 - and failure to get past the quarter-final stages of a World Cup make them the great northern hemisphere underachievers, yet the sheer depth and quality of a squad which draws so much from the way the provinces manage their best players, leads you to believe they can achieve more or less what they want in the next two months.
Just how evergreen Johnny Sexton is at fly-half could well have a significant bearing on fortunes, yet the astute Farrell has so many lieutenants to rely on to carry out his bidding in the likes of Tadhg Beirne, James Ryan and Tadhg Furlong.
The mood music around the Emerald Isle could not contrast more sharply with the trepidation that pervades in Wales and if Ireland are not Six Nations champions come the final week of March, even if they do have to travel to Paris and Twickenham, their demanding public will want to know why.
Ditto England and France. The latter are favourites with bookmakers, unsurprising given the way they have rediscovered the structure and steel for which Les Bleus were always renowned, to go alongside that mythical flair.
Les Bleus 40-25 win against the All Blacks in November looked like a watershed in the countdown to the 2023 World Cup they will host, a tournament already resembling previous versions where the host nation view lifting the Webb Ellis trophy almost as a right.
Scrap the old adage about not knowing which French team will turn up. It’s no coincidence that the arrival of former Wales defence king Shaun Edwards has led to a consistency and level of performance which eluded France for the best part of a lost decade after their Grand Slam of 2010.
England appear to be in the unusual position of not being particularly talked up ahead of a Six Nations.
They are well equipped to deal with the loss of Farrell, but their midfield isn't as effective without Manu Tuilagi’s participation. Second row powerhouse Courtney Lawes – who would have replaced Farrell as skipper – misses the opener in Scotland, while wing Jonny May is likely to be absent for the duration with a knee injury.
These factors add up to something of a convoluted build up compared to Ireland, but England, whose home games are against Wales and Ireland in rounds three and four respectively, clearly have the tools. They just require outspoken boss Eddie Jones to use them correctly – and for me his original omission of Leicester fly-half George Ford was baffling.
That said, it is another fly-half to whom most eyes will turn come kick-off – Harlequins’ emerging glamour star Marcus Smith, who has been wowing the Gallagher Premiership after a promising autumn on the Test scene. You sense this tournament is being seen as the one where Smith emerges as a superstar.
Scotland, having beaten England and France away from home last season and followed up with a 15-13 success against Australia in Murrayfield in November, can reflect on a fine 2021 and there is obvious expectation of improvement under Gregor Townsend this year.
While their progress has generally been upward, there have been dips in the graph along the way.
There is certainly no opportunity for them to grow into the tournament this time – they face England on the opening day and Wales in Cardiff a week later.
As for Italy, it’s a case of another Six Nations, another set of question marks over whether they even deserve their place in the competition.
Evidence of genuine improvement is painfully lacking and you sense what the Azzurri need more than anything is to prove they can even compete at this level.
In Six Nations 2021, Italy leaked 239 points over the course of their five matches. It isn’t unfair to assert it cannot go on like this.
Winners? It has to be Ireland for me - but if Wales can upset the applecart again in Dublin this weekend, then who knows?
Six to watch
Wales: Ellis Jenkins
We know the Cardiff flanker has world class displays in his locker, and in club rugby parlance, this is like a new signing for Wales.
Jenkins returned last autumn after two years out injured with a horror knee injury. He demonstrated his value immediately, but the hope is that with more rugby under his belt he can be even more influential in the Six Nations.
His quality, physicality and nous could hold the key to an essential improvement at the breakdown.
England: Marcus Smith
Smith showed fleetingly what a supreme talent he is when parachuted onto the Lions tour last summer.
The Harlequins man has since shown it was no flash in the pan. He appears to have it all, an astute playmaking ability, a solid boot and a penchant for evasive running.
In fact, he could be a Welsh No10 from yesteryear.
But he’s English – and expected to be a gamebreaker for the old enemy for years to come.
Ireland: Caelan Doris
With 10 caps to his name, the Leinster blindside is still relatively green (no pun intended) on the international stage.
But 2021 was his breakthrough year, and then some. The sheer dynamism of his try-scoring contribution to Ireland’s 29-20 win against New Zealand in November was breathtaking.
Doris epitomises the new-look Irish squad under Farrell and while he may still be relatively unknown outside his homeland, a lot more people should know him come March.
France: Romain Ntamack
While Antoine Dupont is the talk of French rugby right now, his half-back partner could have just as telling an influence.
French fly-halves have a reputation for being mercurial and flaky. Not Ntamack.
The 22-year-old Toulouse man has brought consistency and quality to the role since his breakthrough year in 2019. Expect him to steer his country into, at the very least, final weekend title contention.
Scotland: Ewan Ashman
The Canadian-born hooker is being talked up as the man to bring a different dimension to the Scottish front row after his try-scoring contribution off the bench in the win against Australia in the autumn – his Test debut.
The 21-year-old Sale No2 remains inexperienced and transitioning to the unique mental and physical demands of the Six Nations will not be easy.
It says much about the promise of Ashman, born in Toronto, that he was courted by England boss Eddie Jones before committing to the Scots.
Italy: Federico Mori
The 21-year-old Bordeaux utility back is one of a crop of talented Italian youngsters offering hope of better times.
Mori has built up Champions Cup and Top 14 experience this season after transferring from Zebre last summer and should bring greater authority and confidence to bear on the bigger stage.
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