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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Sport
Guardian sport

Six Nations 2022 predictions: our writers on who will win and why

The Six Nations captains (clockwise from top left): Tom Curry, England; Gaël Fickou, vice-captain, France; Johnny Sexton, Ireland; Michele Lamaro, Italy; Stuart Hogg, Scotland; Dan Biggar, Wales.
The Six Nations captains (clockwise from top left): Tom Curry, England; Gaël Fickou, vice-captain, France; Johnny Sexton, Ireland; Michele Lamaro, Italy; Stuart Hogg, Scotland; Dan Biggar, Wales. Photograph: Guinness Six Nations/Inpho/Shutterstock

Ugo Monye

Who will win? Ireland. They’ve gone quietly about their business, there doesn’t seem to be any great sense of hyperbole about them, but they beat New Zealand in the autumn, are coming strolling into the Six Nations and are red-hot favourites to beat the reigning champions.

Predicted order Ireland, England, France, Scotland, Wales, Italy.

Key match? The second week is crucial and, while Wales v Scotland could be pivotal, France v Ireland is blockbuster. France’s tournament begins for real then but it’s always tight and memories of Johnny Sexton’s late drop goal will still be fresh.

Best player? Antoine Dupont may seem the obvious choice but he has not played too much recently and there is no hiding place for him as the world player of the year. Everyone will be looking to put pressure on the most influential player in French rugby.

Breakthrough player? A few possibilities – Mack Hansen, the uncapped Ireland wing, could burst on to the scene like Louis Rees-Zammit last year and on the subject of Wales, Johnny McNicholl, Taine Basham and Ellis Jenkins could take the next step up.

I can’t wait for … The chance to see players smiling post-match. Unfortunately it was an enduring image of last year’s tournament when Rees-Zammit had scored that wonder try against Scotland but had to wear a mask when doing his TV interview.

The uncapped Ireland wing Mack Hansen in training
The uncapped Ireland wing Mack Hansen in training. Photograph: Dan Sheridan/Inpho/Shutterstock

Robert Kitson

Who will win? France. Or Ireland. Or maybe Scotland. The championship grows more fiendishly competitive: the only certainty is that a grand slam will be a mighty achievement. Pin me down and I’ll plump for France on points difference.

Predicted order France, Ireland, Scotland, England, Wales, Italy.

Key match? There are plenty but France v Ireland in Paris in round two will fundamentally influence the title outcome.

Most important player? Johnny Sexton. As long as he stays fit, Ireland will believe they have all angles covered.

Breakthrough talent? If Ulster’s James Hume gets a run he will make opposition centres sit up.

I can’t wait for … Scotland v England. Tension-filled, tumultuous – and that’s just the weather forecast. A home win in front of a raucous Murrayfield crowd will put the “din” in Edinburgh.

Johnny Sexton in Champions Cup action for Leinster against Bath
Johnny Sexton, here in Champions Cup action for Leinster against Bath, is key to Ireland’s chances. Photograph: Ryan Byrne/Inpho/Shutterstock

Andy Bull

Who will win? At their best, France are a cut above every other team. They’ll win a grand slam, with one or two nail-biting last-minute victories along the way.

Predicted order France, Ireland, Scotland, England, Wales, Italy.

Key match? France v Ireland in the second week is the showdown between the two top teams from last autumn and, unlike England and Wales, they’ve both got (mostly) fit squads to pick from.

Most important player? Antoine Dupont, stand-in captain, world player of the year, and a man who can crack open the best defences. Expect him to make the difference in at least one close game.

Breakthrough talent? This time last year, Melvyn Jaminet was playing in the French second division. Has landed 92% of his shots at goal and scored 89 points, in six Tests since he made his debut.

I can’t wait for … After the past two years, the first trip out and about among a crowd. The prospect of a wet and windy weekend at Murrayfield never seemed so tantalising.

France’s scrum-half Antoine Dupont
France’s scrum-half Antoine Dupont is the world player of the year Photograph: Franck Fife/AFP/Getty Images

Gerard Meagher

Who will win? Ireland. Will need a win in Paris or at Twickenham but their two defeats last year were by fine margins and they have improved significantly since then.

Predicted order Ireland, France, England, Scotland, Wales, Italy

Key match? England v Ireland. Can’t see a grand slam this year but there’s every chance both sides will be two wins from three by their round four meeting. The victors will then take some stopping on the final weekend.

Most important player? Tadhg Furlong. When he is playing at the top of his game, Ireland tend to be doing similarly. The leading tighthead prop in the northern hemisphere and he has returned to fitness just at the right time.

Breakthrough talent? Alex Dombrandt. Has been consistently demonstrating his rich talents at Harlequins for a while and this year’s competition will be all the better if he can do so for England.

I can’t wait for … South Africa to join the championship. In the meantime, though, this is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable tournaments in recent memory and with an emphasis on attacking intent it should not disappoint.

Alex Dombrandt of Harlequins and England.
Alex Dombrandt of Harlequins and England. Photograph: Christopher Lee/Getty Images

Michael Aylwin

Who will win? Ireland. But any of the top four in my list could finish anywhere, bar sixth. Oh, and then there’s Wales, who are the actual champions, remember. Ireland will probably lose in Paris or London.

Predicted order Ireland, Scotland, England, France, Wales, Italy.

Key match France-Ireland. The winner will be two from two and motoring. If France lose, they’ll probably fall apart. If Ireland win, they host Italy, then go to Twickenham. I think Ireland will win.

Most important player Well, this is always a fly-half, isn’t it. Unless you’re being difficult. I already feel as if I’ve been difficult in tipping French travails (not that there isn’t ample precedent). So Sexton. Obviously.

Breakthrough talent This is where you can be difficult, so I’ll go for Paolo Garbisi of bottom-placed Italy. They have spent decades trying to find a No 10. Now they have one, they need to find a team to go with him.

Italy fly-half Paolo Garbisi
Italy fly-half Paolo Garbisi needs some quality teammates. Photograph: Alberto Pizzoli/AFP/Getty Images

I can’t wait for … The bleating about the state of modern rugby after the first bad game. Rugby has lots of massive, possibly terminal problems, but the spectacle on the field is better than ever. Do not be fooled by the edited best bits of yesteryear.

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