Emerging data suggests that COVID-19 cases in the U.S. are on the rise again for the first time since January 2023, though the uptick is relatively small so far. According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), both test positivity and emergency department visits related to COVID are on the upward climb. The CDC stopped tracking individual cases in May, choosing instead to focus on hospitalizations and deaths. While neither metric shows an increase yet, they typically lag several days or weeks behind positive tests.
Across the nation, signals of COVID in wastewater have also been on the rise over the past few weeks, according to the epidemiology tracker Biobot Analytics. The company's data measures viral concentrations, extrapolating the likely number of cases in the U.S. before they result in infected cases or hospital visits. Overall, COVID cases have been on a steep decline since January, but available data shows this trend is starting to reverse.
Elsewhere in the world, many countries are also enduring prolonged upticks in cases, with Japan experiencing a gradual increase for eight straight weeks since May 8. On July 20, the World Health Organization warned that while "the public health emergency of international concern for COVID-19 was declared over on [May 5,] 2023, COVID-19 remains a major threat." The agency added, "Some countries continue to report high burdens of COVID-19, including increases in newly reported cases and, more importantly, increases in hospitalizations and deaths — the latter of which are considered more reliable indicators given the reductions in testing."
It's too early to tell if this will result in another massive surge, or if the level of immunity (either from vaccines, previous infections or both) will provide a buffer against a potentially serious outbreak. Regardless, more infections will likely equal more cases with long-term, persisting symptoms, a debilitating condition known as "long COVID." Nonetheless, the tools to fight the continued spread of COVID haven't changed. Critical tools that can help keep the pandemic at bay still include masking, staying up to date on vaccines and improving indoor air quality.
