Welcome to Bracket Watch in 2023! The countdown is officially on until Selection Sunday, which is remarkably less than eight weeks away. Thus far, the men’s college basketball season has been incredibly fluid, with few teams establishing themselves as a cut above the rest and plenty of surprising results every night. And with weeks of conference action still to come, there’s plenty of time for teams to improve their résumés and change their current fates.
Here’s a look at how Sports Illustrated projects the field of 68 right now, with regular updates to come from now through Selection Sunday.
On the Bubble:
Last Four Byes:
Creighton
Maryland
Kentucky
Wisconsin
Last Four In:
Pittsburgh
Northwestern
Memphis
Penn State
First Four Out:
Mississippi State
Oklahoma
West Virginia
Wake Forest
Next Four Out:
Florida
Utah
Nevada
Oklahoma State
A pair of early underachievers in Creighton and Kentucky are barely on the right side of the bubble early on. The Wildcats’ chances of missing the tournament skyrocketed after the team’s loss at home to a dreadful South Carolina team, but defeating Tennessee on the road gives Kentucky the best win of any bubble team. It’s not out of the woods yet, but things aren’t as bleak as they were a week ago. Meanwhile, Creighton has eight losses, but six came in succession in November and December, and the Bluejays have played an incredibly difficult schedule.
One major story line we’ll track through Selection Sunday is the Big 12’s bubble teams. There’s little debate this is the best conference in the nation right now, with six teams earning top-five seeds in this first projection. The challenge for the other four teams in the league (three of whom currently rank among our first eight out) is winning enough games to earn their spot. Oklahoma’s 15 losses heading into Selection Sunday last season seem like the cut-off point: Hit 15, and you’re not dancing.
Nick King/Lansing State Journal/USA TODAY Network
* = indicates team is projected to win its conference’s automatic bid
South Region
No. 1 Purdue* vs. No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson*/UMBC*
No. 8 Clemson* vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic*
No. 5 Miami vs. No. 12 VCU*
No. 4 TCU vs. No. 13 Marshall*
No. 6 Arkansas vs. No. 11 Northwestern/Memphis
No. 3 UConn vs. No. 14 Seattle*
No. 7 Providence vs. No. 10 Maryland
No. 2 Iowa State vs. No. 15 Siena*
Purdue took the No. 1 overall seed from Kansas on Tuesday when the Jayhawks lost to Kansas State. The margins are rather thin here, and there’s little functional difference between the two teams, as they’re not competing for the same regional spot (Purdue would want to play in Louisville for the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, while Kansas would prefer Kansas City).The Boilermakers already have seven Quad 1 wins, and opportunities for more will be plentiful throughout the rest of conference play (the Big Ten leads all conferences with a whopping 11 teams in our projected field). Purdue has the inside track for a top seed at this point.
Seeding UConn was a challenge given the Huskies’ recent slide. We knocked the Huskies down to the No. 3 line in the aftermath of Sunday’s loss to St. John’s, coincidentally falling one spot on the seed list below an Iowa State team they beat handily in November. There’s time for UConn to turn things around and get back in the mix for a No. 1 seed, but the Big East’s lack of depth may hurt them. The primary goal for the Huskies: Get sent to the East Regional with a chance to play at Madison Square Garden.
Midwest Region
No. 1 Kansas* vs. No. 16 Southern*/Morgan State*
No. 8 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Boise State*
No. 5 Rutgers vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts*
No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Southern Illinois*
No. 6 Saint Mary’s vs. No. 11 Kentucky
No. 3 Texas vs. No. 14 Youngstown State*
No. 7 San Diego State vs. No. 10 Creighton
No. 2 Gonzaga* vs. No. 15 SIUE*
The winner of the Big 12 should be a lock for a No. 1 seed, though the league’s depth may knock the winner down the seed list a bit as teams beat each other up in late January and February. Defending national champion Kansas will go through plenty of battles like the one it went into against Kansas State on Tuesday.
I’m incredibly intrigued to see how the committee will seed Gonzaga this year. From a pure résumé standpoint, the Bulldogs have wins over Alabama, Xavier, Michigan State and Kentucky (three on road or neutral courts), no bad losses and top-10 metrics. They don’t necessarily pass the eye test of a true contender, but it strikes me that there’s a real path to a No. 1 seed with at least two wins in the potential three remaining meetings with Saint Mary’s and no other slip-ups.
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West Region
No. 1 Houston* vs. No. 16 UNC-Asheville*
No. 8 Missouri vs. No. 9 Iowa
No. 5 Illinois vs. No. 12 Charleston*
No. 4 Marquette vs. No. 13 Liberty*
No. 6 Auburn vs. No. 11 Pittsburgh/Penn State
No. 3 Xavier* vs. No. 14 Colgate*
No. 7 North Carolina vs. No. 10 Arizona State
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Samford*
Houston’s résumé come Selection Sunday will almost assuredly be leaner than other No. 1 seed contenders, so the Cougars will rely on strong predictive metrics and a December road win at Virginia for their top seed case. The overall No. 1 is within reach should Houston win out, particularly given neither Purdue nor Kansas figures to run through their highly competitive conferences. That said, it also wouldn’t take much for Houston to fall off the No. 1 line should it stumble in conference play.
Xavier’s body of work deserves praise: The Musketeers are 5–2 in Quad 1 games and 4–1 against Q2. Their schedule down the stretch features several tough road games, but stealing a few could push the Musketeers into the conversation for a top-two seed.
North Carolina’s résumé looks quite similar to how it did last season at this time: No bad losses, but an inability to win big games. The Tar Heels’ win over Ohio State on a neutral court puts things on slightly more solid ground than they were on a year ago, but the preseason No. 1 team needs to bolster its team sheet before March.
East Region
No. 1 Alabama* vs. No. 16 Texas A&M–Corpus Christi*
No. 8 NC State vs. No. 9 Indiana
No. 5 Baylor vs. No. 12 Kent State*
No. 4 Arizona vs. No. 13 UC Irvine*
No. 6 Duke vs. No. 11 Wisconsin
No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 14 Princeton*
No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 New Mexico
No. 2 UCLA* vs. No. 15 Eastern Washington*
Since Alabama’s Dec. 17 loss to Gonzaga, the Crimson Tide have been the best team in the sport, per T-Rank. They’ve won all seven games they’ve played in that stretch by double figures, including a 40-point drubbing of LSU over the weekend. Plus, their true road win at Houston is arguably the best win of the season by any team.
New Mexico is one of three Mountain West bids in our opening projections. The Lobos did take a pair of Quad 3 losses in January but were the nation’s last undefeated team and have road wins over Saint Mary’s and San Diego State. SDSU and Boise State also are in the field as of today, with Nevada and Utah State also in the mix. With five teams in the top 35 of the NET, the league will be able to give each other quality wins during conference play, and a fourth bid like last year seems quite possible.
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