Want a great stat to help you glean who will win the NFL’s Defensive Rookie of the Year award?
Since 2000, only three of the 23 winners have been picked outside the first round: DeMeco Ryans, Kendrell Bell and Shaq Leonard. And they were all second-round linebackers.
In short, if you’re going to roam outside the first 32 picks (or 31 this year, with the Dolphins’ losing their choice), good luck to you. So while we’re looking for a dark-horse winner, we’re also trying to be right. Going into the second round and beyond is a bold choice requiring a ton of daring and belief.
This year, there’s no shortage of talent. Many believe Texans edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. and Eagles defensive tackle Jalen Carter were the top two players in the draft, while corners Devon Witherspoon, Christian Gonzalez and Joey Porter Jr. are also incredibly intriguing.
So who did we roll with? Check it out.
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Matt Verderame: Mazi Smith, DT, Dallas Cowboys. Who is walking into a better situation than Smith on the Dallas defensive front?
Smith is a 6'3", 323-pound force on the interior who will be impossible to double-team with edge rushers Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence drawing attention every snap. Additionally, Smith fits the profile of a terrific sleeper for this award as a first-round pick.
Another factor is defensive coordinator Dan Quinn, one of the more creative minds in the game. Smith will have opportunities to create havoc on the inside, pushing the pocket against middling interior offensive lines within the NFC East, including Washington and New York. If Quinn can find some advantageous matchups, he won’t hesitate to relentlessly attack and leave Smith on the field.
At Michigan, Smith was a two-year starter who amassed only a half sack, but many evaluators believe his game will translate well to the NFL. If his numbers finally catch up with the talent displayed on his Big Ten tape, the former Wolverines star could become one of the more dominant rookies in 2023.
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Gilberto Manzano: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Patriots. With Sauce Gardner winning last season, let’s make it two consecutive years of a cornerback winning DROY.
Gonzalez had somewhat of a draft-day slide after the Seahawks favored Devon Witherspoon with the No. 5 pick—Gonzalez and Witherspoon were viewed as the top two cornerbacks by many pundits. Surprisingly, Emmanuel Forbes went ahead of Gonzalez to the Commanders with the 16th pick.
But this slide will benefit Gonzalez in the long run, because by going 17th to the Patriots, the Oregon product will get to play with a stacked defense, which includes cornerback Jonathan Jones and safety Kyle Dugger. And most important, Gonzalez will get to learn from coach Bill Belichick, a mastermind on the defensive side.
Gonzalez fits the mold of today’s lengthy and athletic cornerbacks—he stands 6'2" and 201 pounds, and he clocked a 4.38 at the combine in the 40-yard dash. It wouldn’t be a surprise if Gonzalez has a handful of interceptions and impact plays once his rookie season concludes.
