Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. I can’t wait to see what the College Football Playoff committee decides on Sunday.
In today’s SI:AM:
🧀 Packers fall short again
🦁 The Lions’ strong identity
🎓 Belichick on campus?
Can they make a run in the postseason?
The Green Bay Packers might be the most confounding team in the NFL. At 9–4, they have already equaled last year’s win total and are in prime position to reach the playoffs for the second straight year. But at the same time, they have fallen flat against the best teams on their schedule.
That was the case again on Thursday night against the Detroit Lions, as Detroit won 34–31 on a field goal as time expired. It was the sort of result that the Packers have become frustratingly familiar with this season—losing a close game against an elite opponent. Green Bay’s four losses have come against the Lions (twice), Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles. Those three teams have a combined record of 32–5. And the four losses have come by a combined 20 points, or five points per game. The Eagles loss came in Brazil in a game in which quarterback Jordan Love was hampered by an ankle injury that caused him to miss the next two games. The Vikings loss came in Love’s first game back from injury.
So then how good are the Packers, really? There are a couple different ways to look at it. On one hand, you could say that they’re bound to catch a break in one of these tight games and finally pick up a win. But at the same time, you could also say that truly good teams find ways to win the sort of games that the Packers have been losing—like the Lions did on Thursday night.
There’s something to be said for a team that does not suffer bad losses. Plenty of Super Bowl contenders have had embarrassing losses this year. The Buffalo Bills got blown out by the Baltimore Ravens, 35–10, and the Ravens have losses to the Las Vegas Raiders and Cleveland Browns. The Eagles suffered a 17-point loss to a Tampa Bay Buccaneers team that is clawing for a playoff spot at 6–6.
The Packers don’t have any such losses. But they also don’t have any signature wins. Their best win is probably a 34–13 victory over the Arizona Cardinals in Week 6, or a 24–22 win over the Houston Texans the following week. That win over Houston is Green Bay’s only victory over a team that currently has a winning record.
The stats say the Packers are among the best teams in the NFL. Their plus-75 point differential is sixth-best in the league. They rank seventh in points scored and 10th in points allowed, and are just as good on both sides of the ball on a per-play basis, ranking second in yards per offensive play and 10th in yards allowed per play. The offense is well-rounded, too. Green Bay ranks seventh in yards per rushing attempt and second in net yards per pass attempt.
So it should come as no surprise that the Packers have managed to win nine of their first 13 games. But should anyone be afraid of them come playoff time? They haven’t shown at any point in the regular season that they’re capable of beating playoff-caliber teams. Their last chance to prove that they are will come in Week 17 on the road against the Vikings. If they can’t win that one, it might be fair to pencil them in for an early playoff exit.
The best of Sports Illustrated
- Alberto Breer and Pat Forde have the best reporting I’ve seen on Bill Belichick considering the head coaching job at North Carolina.
- Gilberto Manzano believes the Packers need Jordan Love to step up and start playing more like he did last year if they’re going to contend this season.
- Michael Rosenberg wrote about how the Lions continue to win by embracing the identity they’ve forged under coach Dan Campbell.
- The news that the Athletics signed Luis Severino to the biggest contract in franchise history took many by surprise, but Tom Verducci explains why the team needed to offer the inconsistent pitcher so much money.
- Bryan Fischer has a great profile of Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel, a sixth-year senior playing for his third school who’s now a Heisman contender and national championship hopeful.
- Greg Bishop looks at how advancements in kicker training mean that we’re not far off from seeing the NFL’s first 70-yard field goal.
- The Lions are hoping to have injured star Aidan Hutchinson back on the field if they make it to the Super Bowl.
- The NHL-worst Blackhawks have fired their coach.
- Here is the full list of nominees for the NFL’s Walter Payton Man of the Year award.
The top five…
… things I saw last night:
This article was originally published on www.si.com as SI:AM | How Seriously Should We Take the Packers?.
