Good morning, I’m Dan Gartland. Let me give a quick shoutout to Kevin Harlan. I had to be in the car during the second quarter of the AFC championship game and Harlan was so good on the call.
In today’s SI:AM:
😲 Mahomes keeps rolling
👏 Why Spags deserves another shot
😞 Disappointment for the Commanders
No risk, no reward
During the second quarter of Sunday’s NFC championship game between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders, Sports Illustrated senior editor Mitch Goldich posted on Bluesky, “Football is more fun to watch when the teams are regularly going for it on fourth downs.” Mitch attached an image of the Norman Rockwell painting “Freedom of Speech” to his post, a piece of art that in recent years has become an internet meme people use to acknowledge that the point they’re trying to make is controversial. But there’s nothing controversial about Mitch’s post. Going for it on fourth down is awesome—and Sunday’s games proved it.
There were a total of 14 fourth-down attempts Sunday. The Commanders went for it six times in their 55–23 loss to the Eagles, and the Buffalo Bills went for it six times in their AFC title game loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Both winning teams attempted one fourth down.
There has never been a conference championship Sunday with that many fourth-down attempts. In fact, never before in the history of the conference championship round had multiple teams attempted more than two fourth-down conversions on the same day. The Bills and Commanders were the third and fourth teams to go for it on fourth down at least four times in a conference title game.
Washington and Buffalo didn’t attempt many fourth downs during the regular season, ranking 17th and 20th in the league, respectively, but they recognized that they needed to take more chances with their seasons on the line. The Commanders’ evolution was especially noteworthy. They became the first team in recorded history to attempt at least four fourth-down conversions in multiple games in the same postseason, doing so in all three playoff games they played this year.
One aspect of football’s analytics revolution is that teams are more comfortable with rolling the dice on fourth down earlier in the game. When the Indianapolis Colts set the record for fourth-down attempts in a conference championship with seven in 2004 against the New England Patriots, five of them came when the Colts were in desperation mode, trailing by two possessions in the fourth quarter. Two decades later, the Commanders kept the offense on the field twice on fourth down on the opening possession of the game.
In every instance where the Bills and Commanders went for it on fourth down on Sunday, conventional wisdom 20 years ago would have said it was entirely acceptable to punt the ball away or attempt a field goal. But viewed through our modern understanding of the game, each of those decisions to go for it was just as much of a no-brainer.
Fans today understand that going for it on fourth-and-short from the middle of the field or in the shadow of the goal line is a smart play. It’s also a significantly more exciting play. When teams take the calculated risk of attempting a do-or-die play on fourth down, it’s a far more entertaining option than the safe, cowardly choice to kick it. In another era, no one would have batted an eye if the Bills decided to kick an easy field goal on fourth-and-goal from the 1-yard line down 21–16 in the third quarter. Today, the decision to go for it was an obvious one, and it paid off for both the Bills and the viewer at home. James Cook’s diving go-ahead touchdown was about a thousand times more exciting than an 18-yard field goal to cut the deficit to three points would have been.
WOOOOOWWWWWW!!!!
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) January 27, 2025
📺: @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/0PBpEnXZ3N
Even when the decision to go for it ultimately fails, it gives us something to talk about. The most pivotal play of the Chiefs-Bills game may have been Josh Allen’s run on fourth-and-1 early in the fourth quarter where he was controversially ruled short of the line to gain.
Both games benefited from the teams’ decisions to go for it. The Commanders’ daring approach kept them in the game against the Eagles before their turnovers became too much to bear, and the Bills’ success on fourth down was crucial to their ability to hang with the Chiefs. We may not see many fourth-down attempts two weeks from now in the Super Bowl (Philadelphia ranked 10th in the NFL this season in fourth-down tries, while Kansas City ranked 26th) but more teams in the NFL are embracing a more exciting style of play, and that’s great news for fans.
The best of Sports Illustrated
- Albert Breer has everything you need to know about conference championship Sunday, starting with how the Chiefs continue to win close games.
- Thanks to the excellence of Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs’ success is starting to feel inevitable, Greg Bishop writes.
- Gilberto Manzano makes the case that the Chiefs’ tremendous defensive effort in these playoffs shows why Steve Spagnuolo deserves another shot at being a head coach.
- Manzano also broke down how the Eagles beat the Commanders in the NFC title game—and how the Commander beat themselves.
- Conor Orr covered the NFC game from the Commanders’ perspective and wrote about how the team reacted to a disappointing end to an unexpectedly great season.
- Eagles fans celebrating the team’s win on Broad Street in Philadelphia were joined by a surprise special guest: Nick Foles.
- The Aces and Sparks jumpstarted the WNBA offseason with a blockbuster trade involving Jewell Loyd and Kelsey Plum.
The top five…
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as SI:AM | Going for It on Fourth Down Rocks.
