Before the season, this Monday night game between the Lions and the 49ers was expected to be one of the showcase games of the entire NFL calendar. Things have changed due in large part to an injury-cursed 49er team. Thus, tonight’s game has been rendered almost meaningless to both teams in terms of standings.
Technically, if there is a tie next week in the Lions vs Vikings finale, a Lions win tonight would give them the division crown and #1 seed. However, there have been 255 games this year in the NFL without a single tie. There were also no ties in all 272 regular season games in 2023. The last tie in the NFL was December 4, 2022. Thus, the likelihood of a tie is extraordinarily low.
On the other hand, the likelihood of injuries in the NFL is extraordinarily high. Lions fans have already exhausted all fingers and toes counting up the players that have gone on injured reserve. Forty-niner fans can certainly sympathize as they have seen many key injuries sabotage their season.
Last year, the Lions had a mostly meaningless game also. That was the week 18 game vs the Vikings when Sam LaPorta went down with a scary-looking, left knee hyperextension. Fortunately, the injury ended up not being serious, and he played the next week.
Detroit Lions Top 10 injury news of 2023
#2 Sam LaPorta
-Wk18: L knee hyperext + bone bruise
-Likely also mild sprains of knee ligaments
-Missed 0g. Played all 3 playoffs
-Could have been MUCH worse (ACL, dislocation, peroneal nerve, arteries) affecting 2024 & beyond pic.twitter.com/0RNS7ae9lC— Jimmy Liao MD | Detroit Lions Morning Rounds (@JimmyLiaoMD) April 10, 2024
This raises the question of whether the Lions should strategically try to decrease injury risk during tonight’s game. The most obvious way would be to bench key starters, but Dan Campbell has already firmly stated that won’t happen.
However, there are surreptitious ways to decrease injury risk without benching anybody. The following are just some of the ways for the Lions to decrease risk while still presenting the image of going all-out for a win.
Decrease snap counts to key players
You can’t decrease snap counts at QB and offensive line without it being obvious. But it would be easy and almost imperceptible to decrease snap count percentages at other positions.
With David Montgomery hurt two weeks ago, Jahmyr Gibbs took 69% of snaps last game at RB. This percentage could easily be lowered to 50% without anybody batting an eye. The Lions played three other RB’s last game in Craig Reynolds, Sione Vaki, and Jermar Jefferson, so there are plenty of other players eager to take the snaps. The Lions traded up in the 2024 draft to take Vaki so maybe it’s time to cash in on that investment.
Other key starters that could subtly take a 10-20% drop in snap count from last game are:
- Sam LaPorta – 92% last game
- Amon-Ra St. Brown – 85%
- Jameson Williams – 83%
- Josh Paschal – 70%
- Za-Darius Smith – 62%
- Levi Onwuzurike – 62%
- Jack Campbell – 100%
The starting secondary (CB & S) usually take close to 100% of snaps, but there are enough reserves to do spot rotations if the Lions choose.
Protect Jared Goff as much as possible
During preseason games of past when starting QB’s actually played (Jared Goff did not play a snap this preseason), teams would be careful with the offensive play calling to minimize risk to the starter. That meant quicker throws to decrease the risk of taking hits. This preseason play-calling strategy could be employed during tonight’s game.
In addition, Goff can take it upon himself to reduce his risk:
- Avoid extending plays which could expose himself to hits. Just throw the ball away.
- Minimize scrambling. If he does scramble, go down or slide if there is any hint of danger.
- Ignore the 1st-down marker. Don’t take a big hit just to try for a 1st down.
Game strategy
In-game strategy often changes from game to game so employing certain strategies to decrease the overall snap count during a game would not be obvious.
- As often as possible, drain the 40-second clock. This year, we’ve seen the Lions sometimes quick-snap to catch the defense off guard. That strategy could simply be decreased or eliminated tonight.
- Don’t use time-outs at the end of the first half to try to squeeze out an extra possession.
- Avoid overtime by going for two as necessary. Recall last year in the “ineligible player” game vs the Cowboys, the Lions went for two at the 7-yard line after a penalty in order to avoid overtime. So there is precedence of taking an unusual action to avoid the extra period.
- While the Lions typically only go for two in late game situations, they could do it earlier to keep the score offset throughout the game.
