Walmart and Target shoppers are no longer lingering between aisles, looking wistfully at a bag of chips before placing it back on the shelf. Consumers have their grocery shopping routines down pat, and it’s a sign they’ve been beaten down by inflation over the past three-plus years.
Visitor dwell time, or the time spent perusing aisles to check off every item off a grocery list, has decreased at Walmart and Target over the past year, according to an August report from foot traffic data software firm Placer.ai. This suggests there’s less mission-driven shopping taking place, and instead, consumers are frequenting individual retailers for select items and deals they know will be within their budgets, R.J. Hottovy, head of analytical research at Placer.ai, told Fortune.
“They probably know what they're looking for there,” he said. “They're probably just looking for certain deals, and so they know what they want when they go in.”
The trend reflects consumers’ resignation toward their economic landscape. Navigating creeping inflation since mid-2021, consumer appetite for discretionary goods has waned, leaving them with greater intention to buy only the essentials. Looking to save money on basic goods, shoppers have traded down over the past year, picking budget brands or choosing to frequent discount retailers like Walmart and Target. Over the past year, Hottovy said, consumers have cemented new habits. They know where to go to find deals, and they’re doing so efficiently.
Costco is a notable exception to this, having seen a steady—and higher—dwell time as discount retailers see drop-offs, according to Placer.ai’s data. It’s more of a function of the retailer’s strategy to keep customers busy: changing store layouts, offering samples, and promising a cheap meal in the form of a $1.50 hot dog at the end of a long shopping excursion. It’s a strategy that’s worked for the big-box chain, which reported a 9.1% year-over-year increase in revenue in May.
The big winners
Lower dwell times don’t correlate to loss of sales. Both Target and Walmart have jumped at the opportunity to lure cash-strapped shoppers, lowering prices on thousands of items and launching private brands that have appealed not only to those desperate for deals, but also higher-income customers looking to save. It’s a strategy that worked, partially responsible for Walmart’s continued blockbuster earnings and Target’s recent expectation-defying revenue.
“These [consumers] are extremely price sensitive in this environment,” Hottovy said. “And if you can give them a better deal—particularly if you make prices lower than they were a year ago—consumers will definitely respond.”
But while Walmart and Target have been rewarded for lowering prices, they’re also beginning to see increased competition from dollar stores, which have continued to bring in middle- and lower-income consumers as superstores reap the benefits of wealthier consumers trading down, Hottovy said. Placer.ai found more Walmart, Target, and Costco shoppers also frequented Dollar Tree over the past quarter compared to a year ago, a trend that has persisted from before the pandemic.
While dollar stores have struggled in this period of economic uncertainty when lower-income shoppers bear the brunt of inflation, they’ve also worked to appeal to those struggling consumers. Dollar General added grocery products to over 5,000 locations, attempting to nab sales from Walmart and Target, which have relied heavily on groceries to drive store traffic. Others are moving and opening new locations to increase footprint in areas with higher demand.
As consumer behaviors around shopping have both normalized and created opportunities for more retailers to woo them with deals and low prices, both big-box chains and dollar stores have the chance to win big, Hottovy argued, even as inflation begins to cool.
“I do think we're gonna see more competition between the channels,” he said. “But there's enough population that’s going to go to both channels right now.”
