The baseball season began with the Los Angeles Dodgers playing the San Diego Padres in Seoul, South Korea, in March. Two hundred and two days and 6,000 miles removed from that beginning, the season will end for one of them tonight. Game 5 of the National League Division Series has all the pre-set narratives of a classic: bitter rivals, superstar players and managers who can’t wait to get to their bullpens.
The winner gets to play the New York Mets in a coast-to-coast National League Championship Series. By the start of it, hopefully people will have stopped referring to the Mets as a “hot” team and a “Cinderella” team with “magic” on their side. What they should be calling them is the best team in baseball over the past five months, which is exactly what they are.
Here is what to look for in the game tonight:
Neither team has the clear edge
The Dodgers are the home team, but that means nothing in a winner-takes-all game. This is the 132nd sudden-death game in MLB history. The home team is 65–66.
The Dodgers are 10–6 in these winner-takes-all games, including 3–0 in their past three.
The Padres are 3–0 in these games. They are the only undefeated franchise among those to appear in more than two winner-take-all games.
Key at bat will be Shohei Ohtani vs. Tanner Scott
Padres manager Mike Shildt loves to match up his best lefty against Ohtani in a crucial spot. Ohtani is 0-for-3 against Scott in this series and 1-for-12 lifetime.
Scott has totally flipped how to attack Ohtani. From 2019 to ’23 he threw him 84% sliders.
This year he has thrown him 81% fastballs, including 14 of 16 pitches he has thrown him in this series.
Tanner Scott gets Shohei Ohtani looking! 😮💨
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 9, 2024
📲 Watch in 4K on the FOX Sports App: https://t.co/DvnyoAIs1M pic.twitter.com/S36Kxyhe1c
Scott needs to be careful. The Law of Exposure may apply here. (The longer the series, the more hitters get comfortable against relievers.) Giving Ohtani four looks at the same pitcher with the same game plan within a seven-day span is risking trouble.
Keep an eye on how Yu Darvish holds his stuff
Darvish, 38, has looked sharp. He is pitching on four days' rest for only the fifth time this year, only the second time since May. Four days used to be “regular” rest. It’s not. It is short rest for most MLB starters, especially Darvish, who has made 71% of his career starts on five days of rest or more. This year he is 1–3 with a 6.43 ERA on four days’ rest and 7–0 with a 2.13 when he gets more.
Yu Darvish's 5 Pitch K vs. Ohtani.
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 7, 2024
5 Different Pitches: Cutter, Curve, Sweeper, Fastball & Slider. pic.twitter.com/GXzXGwK2HS
In his favor, he pitches well against the Dodgers. He is 3–0 with a 1.73 ERA against them over the past two seasons. He has the fourth lowest career ERA against the Dodgers in the 104-year history of the Live Ball Era (2.20; minimum 15 starts). His four-seam velocity in Game 2 matched a season high (94.8) and the Dodgers were clueless against his sweeper.
Expect something big from Mookie Betts
He’s swinging a hot bat, and he has a history in these games that cannot be ignored. Betts has played in three winner-take-all games, all with the Dodgers. His team is 3–0. He is batting .667 (8-for-12), the highest batting average all-time in these games (min. 12 at bats).
Dodgers must be even more careful with Fernando Tatis Jr.
He is molten hot. They have thrown 56% of the pitches to him out of the strike zone. Not good enough, because when they have thrown the ball over the plate Tatis has seven hits, all crushed more than 100 mph, and is batting .500 with a 1.357 slugging percentage.
FERNANDO. TATIS. JR. 🤩 #NLDS pic.twitter.com/DbwB6Q0TPJ
— MLB (@MLB) October 9, 2024
Dave Roberts and the L.A. front office have the most pressure
These winner-take-all games tend to be managers’ games. “That’s how we’ve done it all year” no longer applies. Scripts get blown up. Urgency dominates strategy. This is speed chess.
Without length from a starting pitcher, the Dodgers skipper and his bosses must get creative running this game. Nothing new there. Roberts has managed seven winner-take-all games. He is 5–2 in these games, including 3–0 in one-run games. Only Bruce Bochy (6–0) and Dick Williams (5–1) have a better record among managers who have run at least five winner-take-all games.
In those seven games, Roberts has pulled his starter after an average of 3 1/3 innings. He has navigated these games using an average of 5.6 pitchers. On Friday, take the over.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Shohei Ohtani, Yu Darvish Hold Keys to Dodgers-Padres NLDS Game 5.
