As we draw closer to the possible return of baseball, it is time to research the player pool for the upcoming baseball season. Unfortunately, the current lockout will put a damper on the player movement and signings, but I expect the season to start as scheduled.
After updating the data for the SIscores for 2022, I updated the data points for the final 2021 major league baseball player stats. I also pulled the ADPs from the National Fantasy Baseball Championship to help jump-start the learning curve.
Over the coming news, players’ values will rise and fall based on news, injuries, and success in spring training. Once I have completed the research for all 30 teams, I will have the 2022 projections and the second round of SIscores.
For now, I’m going to take a quick trip through the starting and relief pitching options to show their ADPs, stats, and SIscores.
Top 10 Starting Pitchers
Three of the top four ranked pitchers by SIscore in 2021 ended the season pitching for the Dodgers (Max Scherzer – 9.19, Walker Buehler – 8.25, and Julio Urias – 7.19).
Shohei Ohtani is the first pitcher off the board in the early draft season, but he posted a -0.15 SIscore due to his lower total in innings pitched. In comparison, Ohtani was the sixth-ranked hitter by SIscore (8.42). His flexibility and overall skill set are elite in all areas while being a challenge to manage in leagues with weekly moves. As impressive as he was in 2021, his ceiling looks even higher if he can make 30 starts.
Julio Urias gained his edge by winning 20 of his 32 starts while pushing his innings to a competitive area (185.2). His next step is a higher strikeout rate, leading to a lower ERA and WHIP. The Dodgers will win plenty of games, and his floor should be 15 wins with an entire season of starts. Urias should be an attractive starting option in the third round in the 2022 draft season.
With a push to 207.2 innings, Walker Buehler will be drafted as the first overall pitcher in many leagues this year. He brings an edge in wins, ERA, and WHIP while owning the skill set to push his strikeouts to an electric area.
Age (37) and a switch to the Mets pushed Max Scherzer’s ADP to 16.5 despite being the best pitcher in baseball in 2021. His wins (15), ERA (2.46), WHIP (0.86), and strikeouts (236) finished in an elite area last season, but he averaged just under 6.00 innings. From 2013 to 2019, Scherzer posted workhorse innings (6.66 per start).
The crackdown on pitchers using foreign substances to improve the baseball's rotation led to Gerrit Cole posting multiple disaster starts (4) over the final three months of 2021. Over 14 starts, he went 8-4 with a 3.95 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 114 strikeouts over 79.2 innings. Cole missed some time in August with a battle with Covid-19. His season started with a 2.66 ERA and 129 strikeouts over 101.2 innings. Cole has an ADP of 9.0 in the early drafts season, with each fantasy owner having a different spin on his 2022 value.
Starting Pitchers (11-20)
Opinions will vary on the second tier of starting arms. This group has a pair of breakout arms (Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman) who found new homes in 2022. In addition, multiple starters moved into an elite area after offering a minimal major league resume coming into last season. Lucas Giolito and Aaron Nola underperformed their ADPs in 2021, leading to a drop in draft value this year. Jack Flaherty and Chris Sale pitched short innings last season for different reasons. Both options appear to be values if they regain their previous form.
Starting Pitchers (21-30)
Yu Darvish went from first-round darling in 2021 to player to fade so far this draft season based on his ADP (97.1). His WHIP (1.09) graded well, but home runs allowed (18 over 70.1 innings) caught up to him over the final three months (6.65 ERA).
The most disappointing arm in this grouping was Luis Castillo. Many predicted a step forward in 2021, thanks to a high-velocity fastball and elite changeup. He finished the year with a 2.76 ERA and 147 strikeouts over 140.1 innings over his final 23 starts. Command of the strike zone led to brutal first 10 games (7.61 ERA and 1.80 WHIP).
Alek Manoah and Trevor Rogers flashed a high ceiling while Dylan Cease found his swing-and-miss stuff.
Top 10 Relief Options
The highest three ranking closing arms (Liam Hendriks, Josh Hader, and Raisel Iglesias) in 2021 all struck out more than 100 strikeouts with a floor of 34 saves. No reliever recorded more than 40 saves. Hendriks and Hader have third-round ADPs in 12-team leagues, while the second closer run comes in the late sixth round. The top 10 closers finished with an average of 32 saves.
Relief Options (11-20)
Only Mark Melancon (39 saves) had a full-time closing job last season. Craig Kimbrel (24 saves) handled the 9th inning for the Cubs before getting traded to the White Sox. The other eight relievers finished with only 72 saves (nine per player).
Giovanny Gallegos has the tools to push toward the best closing options in the game. His next step should be a push for over 100 strikeouts and a run at 40 saves.
The Dodgers have Blake Treinen listed as the closer with Kenley Jansen looking for his next job via free agency.
MORE: Early ADP Data and SIscores for Hitters
A late-September run by Camilo Doval (no runs over 14.1 innings with 20 strikeouts, four wins, and three saves) puts him in the sexy upside column for a closing job in 2022.
Michael Kopech pitched in relief in 2021, but he didn’t record a save. However, Chicago will give him every opportunity to earn a starting job in 2022. His arm brings difference-maker upside with a fallback of pitching late in games.
Top 300 Pitchers
I’ve attached the top 200 starters and 100 relievers by SIscore. I ranked them by their early ADPs in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship to help fantasy owners get a feel for each player's value for the 2022 draft season.
