A growing number of UK firms classed as in "critical financial distress" points to an incoming wave of business failures, new research suggests.
Begbies Traynor's Red Flag Alert report shows a 19% year-on-year increase in companies in the bracket - which means they've had county court judgements of more than £5,000 filed against them - in the first quarter of 2022.
CCJs data revealed 11,673 rulings in March - up 179% on the monthly average for the previous two years - and the highest level in a single month for five years.
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Begbies' research points to the impact of curtailed Covid support measures, the demands of repaying loans and spiralling costs as the key reasons behind the rise. It has suggested writing off debts built up through the likes of the Coronavirus Business Interruption Loan Scheme.
Julie Palmer, partner at Begbies Traynor, said: "The critical distress and CCJ data are likely predictors of a wave of insolvencies coming - it's just a case of when the dam holding it back finally bursts.
"The latest Government insolvency figures for March reinforce this worrying trend with creditors voluntary liquidations - the most common type of corporate insolvency - more than doubling compared to March 2021 and up 62% compared to March 2019.
"The Government's finances are themselves taking a hit from the increasing interest environment; they are simply not able to introduce further significant funding into the system, and they now have a choice to make. Do they rush to recover funds handed out during the pandemic to ensure there was a functioning economy afterwards? Or look for ways to control the number of businesses that fail?
"Having put so much money into protecting businesses over the past two years, ministers won't want to see it wasted as companies collapse, unable to repay their debts."
She added: "I'd expect low-cost forms of further support, probably through leniency in repaying pandemic funding. We could see an approach similar to war bonds, with terms being extended as ministers follow the adage that a rolling loan gathers no loss.
"Taking a hard line on repaying CBILS and other loans would likely drive businesses over the edge, risking the billions fed into the economy being wasted, and the legacy of this support probably explains the year-on-year fall in significant financial distress."
Ric Traynor, executive chairman of Begbies Traynor, said: "Inflation has become a global issue, not just a domestic problem. The effects of increasing costs are now starting to take their toll on businesses and consumers alike. For the first time in more than a decade, inflation is the prime concern for businesses.
"This could mean that companies which have just been surviving, being kept alive only by Government support, finally succumb to the inevitable.
"Additionally, consumer demand is likely to slow markedly as cost pressures pile up ahead of the anticipated increase in energy costs in October, and families reduce their appetite for spending accordingly. If these pressures take their toll on both corporate and personal finances, it could be particularly difficult in the latter quarters of this year. "
