From the moment the Queensland Labor leadership contest began, Steven Miles has had almost enough factional support to become premier. Annastacia Palaszczuk’s decision to endorse her deputy, some thought, would push him over the top.
But on Monday, the health minister, Shannon Fentiman, stepped forward as a credible alternative, believing she has “considerable support” and deliberately pitching herself as an antidote to the things that have come to annoy and anger MPs about Palaszczuk’s tenure.
If Fentiman ends up the premier, it may be because of – not in spite of – Palaszczuk’s backing for Miles.
“Now is the time for renewal,” Fentiman said. “That means we may have to do some things differently. I believe I am best placed to lead that change.
“We need to do more now to really tackle the challenges that we are facing.”
In her brief remarks to reporters on Monday, Fentiman dropped a reference to the need for “robust cabinet processes”. This is a direct pitch to Labor MPs who had been frustrated by Palaszczuk’s top-down governing style, be that through a lack of genuine debate in cabinet, or backbenchers who have complained about being kept out of the loop.
Comments about the need for “a far more inclusive and transparent approach to Olympic and Paralympic infrastructure” suggest that Fentiman would reinstate the plan for an independent body to build venues for the 2032 Games. Miles was central to the controversial decision to move planning in-house.
Fentiman also said housing must be “front and centre” of government policy, tapping into caucus fears about the party’s electoral prospects due to a lack of safe and affordable housing.
Miles fronted a briefing about the approaching Cyclone Jasper on Monday and made it clear he wouldn’t talk about leadership.
“I won’t be spending the day campaigning, I’ll be spending the day focused on ensuring that we are well prepared for this cyclone, ensuring Queenslanders have what they need,” he said.
“I think that the best way to demonstrate to all Queenslanders, including our MPs, what kind of leader I will be is by demonstrating that kind of focus on delivering for Queenslanders.”
There is, of course, a strategy to those comments. Taking the lead on the cyclone messaging gives Miles an opportunity to demonstrate he looks and sounds like a leader.
Since becoming deputy, Miles has played the role of government attack dog, attacking the judiciary and occasionally stepping close to the line.
One view internally is that he “has a bit of Paul Keating about him”. Another is that he “comes across as immature and won’t play at all in the regions”.
The hope from his camp is that taking the lead on cyclone response will bring wavering votes across the line, and get him home.
But there remain significant lingering concerns among some Labor MPs about whether Miles is capable of winning an election in October next year.
The third potential contender, treasurer Cameron Dick, decided on Monday to keep his head down. Dick has been making calls and his supporters say “not to read too much into” his decision not to step out and face questions.
Miles begins with the endorsement of not just Palaszczuk, but key party powerbroker Gary “Blocker” Bullock from the United Workers Union. Some say Bullock’s influence “is overstated”, but he undoubtedly gives the deputy premier a head start.
The UWU has 12 votes in the 52-member caucus. The “Old Guard” Unity faction has nine MPs who are expected to largely vote with the UWU. Add in Palaszczuk, from the right faction, and this alone leaves Miles needing only a handful more supporters to achieve a majority of 27 votes.
The 13 non-UWU members of the left will mostly back Fentiman. Most from the right (18 MPs) would be expected to support Dick, should he run.
The reality of the leadership contest is that Fentiman and Dick probably need a three-sided contest – or to team up – to go into Friday’s caucus meeting with a realistic chance.
Sources say it is unlikely that Friday’s caucus meeting will be followed by a protracted vote of members and unions, as per Labor’s rules.
“They’ll go in to the meeting and sort it out,” one MP said. “There will only be one candidate who leaves caucus.”
