Afternoon summary
Jim Allister, the leader of Traditional Unionist Voice, a small, hardline unionist party which has repeatedly accused the DUP of not doing enough to stand up for Northern Ireland, has criticised the “Safeguardind the Union” deal.
In a video posted on X, he said there was nothing in the document “that removes one word of the protocol, removes one syllable of EU law”. Instead the document left Northern Ireland “continuing to be governed in part by laws we don’t need and can’t change”, he said.
The only thing which has changed today is that the DUP have, sadly, become Protocol implementers. pic.twitter.com/WZcoCX8vkE
— Jim Allister (@JimAllister) January 31, 2024
Tory MPs in the strongly pro-Brexit European Research Group are meeting to discuss the “Safeguarding the Union” deal offered to the DUP. Jon Craig from Sky News says Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg praised what the government had done.
Not many at ERG council of war on NI deal so far. Early arrivals Theresa Villiers, IDS, Bernard Jenkin, John Redwood, Danny Kruger, Desmond Swayne & Lords David Frost & Peter Lilley. Then division bell rings & off they go!
— Jon Craig (@joncraig) January 31, 2024
Not many at ERG council of war on NI deal so far. Early arrivals Theresa Villiers, IDS, Bernard Jenkin, John Redwood, Danny Kruger, Desmond Swayne & Lords David Frost & Peter Lilley. Then division bell rings & off they go!
Jacob Rees-Mogg tells reporters as he arrives at ERG meeting on NI: “I think the government’s done well.” Priti Patel & Bill Cash arrive. Big Gavin Robinson of The DUP also enters the room & briefs the Tory MPs.
Updated
Dublin not expecting EU objections to new trade rules for Northern Ireland
Micheál Martin, the Irish foreign minister and tánaiste (deputy PM), has said that he does not expect the European Commission to object to the proposals in the Safeguarding the Union document setting out terms of the No 10/DUP deal to revise the Windsor framework.
Speaking after meeting the political parties in Belfast, he said:
I think the EU commission will look at this, I think that’s the whole purpose of the joint committee and, indeed, the various mechanisms that are in the Windsor framework is to go through issues as they arise, but I do not anticipate any particular difficulties in respect of the EU side.
Asked what would protecting the EU single market if goods going from Britain to Northern Ireland were not checked, he said:
For goods that are going from the UK into Northern Ireland that are staying in Northern Ireland, we’ve always been of the view that the more streamlined and seamless one can make that, the better all round because we want any of the frameworks we put in place to work for industry, business and jobs in Northern Ireland.
Updated
Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, said she would not bring back the cap on bankers’ bonuses (see 8.57am) in an interview to mark the publication of Labour’s plan for financial services. The party says it includes “a commitment to modernise the regulatory burden on the industry that can obstruct competitiveness and growth, including the Financial Conduct Authority’s 10,000 page regulatory handbook”.
Dominic Raab acted unlawfully by ignoring advice on raising legal aid fees, high court finds
The lord chancellor acted unlawfully and irrationally when taking the decision not to increase criminal legal aid fees for solicitors in England and Wales by 15%, which was the minimum recommendation of an independent review it commissioned, the high court has found.
The Law Society for England and Wales brought a judicial review against the decision, which came amid a 15% increase for barristers and an exodus of solicitors from criminal legal aid work.
In a judgment published on Wednesday, Lord Justice Singh and Mr Justice Jay found in favour of the solicitors’ representative body on two of its four argued grounds and ordered that the decision should be retaken.
They said that Alex Chalk’s predecessor as lord chancellor, Dominic Raab, acted irrationally by not asking whether increasing fees by less than 15% could still achieve the aims and objectives of the independent review into criminal legal aid and by not undertaking any modelling to see whether they could be met “in particular ensuring the sustainability of criminal legal aid”.
The judges said that they had been presented with an “impressive, compelling, body of evidence” which showed “the system is slowly coming apart at the seams”. They said:
Unless there are significant injections of funding in the relatively near future, any prediction along the lines that the system will arrive in due course at a point of collapse is not overly pessimistic.
The Law Society president, Nick Emmerson, expressed delight at the decision but said it was imperative the government implemented the 15% increase as soon as possible. He said:
We may have won the court battle but it’s the public who will lose out in custody suites and courtrooms across the country unless the government takes immediate action to stop the exodus of duty solicitors from the profession.
1,400 duty solicitors have left since 2017 because the work is not financially viable.
We are already seeing that there simply aren’t enough solicitors to represent suspects at police stations and magistrates’ courts day and night across the country. This situation will only get worse with potentially dangerous consequences for society.
The imbalance between the defence and the prosecution will continue to grow and public trust in the criminal justice system will continue to fail.
Government's trans guidance for schools in England 'will erase decades of progress', campaigners claim
A coalition of charities and human rights groups say they “strongly oppose” the government’s draft guidance on how schools in England should treat transgender students, and are calling for it to be redrawn.
The group including Stonewall, Liberty, Amnesty International UK and Mermaids, a charity supporting trans young people, say the guidance “seeks to deny the existence of transgender pupils” and could lead to them being forcibly outed.
In a joint statement they say:
This approach will erase decades of progress in making schools places that value difference and reject discrimination. It hampers teachers’ ability to tackle bullying and ultimately risks causing more harm and exclusion of trans young people.
Schools desperately need guidance that offers practical advice on creating school environments that support trans pupils to thrive.
We are calling on the government to listen to LGBT+ youth and inclusive educators, withdraw the guidance and rethink their approach.
Just Like Us, an LBGT+ charity that works with schools, is also advising schools not to use the guidance in its current form. “The draft guidance is unclear, impractical and many questions have been raised over its legal standing,” the charity said.
The draft guidance, published late last year, advised schools that they had no “general duty” to let students change their preferred names or uniforms – known as social transitioning – and stressed that parents should be involved where possible.
Wales's journey towards independence speeding up, Plaid Cymru leader claims
The leader of Plaid Cymru, Rhun ap Iorwerth, has said that the “journey” towards independence is “speeding up” after a commission concluded that breaking away from the union was a viable option for the country.
Ap Iorwerth described the report from the Independent Commission on the Constitutional Future of Wales as “groundbreaking” and called on Welsh people to be “curious, bold and brave” about the possibility of independence.
The Plaid leader, who is making a keynote speech on the issue in Cardiff this evening, told the Guardian:
I absolutely understand people who see the UK as being some sort of comfort blanket. But it takes a bit of boldness and more curiosity to turn that question on its head and ask, well, how much better could things be if we switch from dependency to taking our fate into our own hands. Staying where we are isn’t risk-free – look at the poverty within many of our communities.
He said he did not want Wales to be isolated but perhaps to be part of a new union of the British Isles or the Celtic nations. He went on:
To me, redesigning Britain is what it’s about. This is a hugely exciting time and I want more people to come with us on the journey.
Also, there’s the reality that if Scotland becomes independent and if Northern Ireland and the Republic reunify, you are left with England and Wales, with Wales being a very, very small partner in that rump of the UK. I think it will dawn on people quickly that that could be bad for Wales. Things could change because of decisions not made by us. We need to prepare for all outcomes. We have to be alive to the possibility that the timescale might not be entirely of our own making.
Updated
Brexiters and unionists raise concerns as MPs largely back No 10/DUP deal to reform Windsor framework
MPs broadly backed the No 10/DUP deal to reform the way the Windsor framework operates, set out in a lengthy and complicated command paper when Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, presented it in a statement to the House of Commons. If Downing Street was fearing a major backlash, it has not happened, and the restoration of power sharing at Stormont is still all set to happen very soon.
But there were concerns raised about the deal, by two groups of MPs.
At a meeting on Monday night Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP leader, secured backing for the deal from the party’s executive.
But he does not have unanimous support and in the Commons at least two of his eight MPs expressed concerns that the deal would not stop Northern Ireland being bound by EU law.
The most outspoken (as usual) was Sammy Wilson, who said:
When the Northern Ireland assembly sits, ministers and assembly members will be expected by law to adhere to and implement laws which are made in Brussels, which they had no say over and no ability to amend, and no ability to stop. This is a result of this spineless, weak-kneed, Brexit-betraying government, refusing to take on the EU and its interference in Northern Ireland.
And Carla Lockhart suggested there was more work to be done because Northern Ireland remained bound by EU single market rules, and the customs code still applied.
Several Tory Brexiters, such as Priti Patel and Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, raised a question also raised by Wilson: what will happen if, in future, the UK government does want to pass legislation diverging from EU law that might necessitate the reimposition of checks on goods going from Britain to Northern Ireland?
This is the key issue, and one that Boris Johnson was tweeting about earlier (see 11.33am), because for Brexiters it is an article of faith that the UK should diverge in this way.
Heaton-Harris replied several times using the same formula. He told
I can tell him absolutely that this agreed package of measures will not change the freedoms and powers we have secured through Brexit or through the Windsor framework. It will not reduce our ability to diverge nor our commitment to do so should it be in the interest of the United Kingdom.
This partially satisfied the Brexiters, although it sounded like a fudge, and Heaton-Harris never fully explained what would happen – under the procedure highlighted by Rees-Mogg (see 1.59am) – if the government did want to diverge in this way.
If the Conservatives were expecting to be in power for another five years, with the government diverging away merrily, this would be a problem, because the Brexiters would not be happy with the answer they got today.
But they don’t, and as a consequence – judging, at least, by what they were saying in the Commons – they don’t have the appetite for a big fight.
Updated
In his response in the Commons to Chris Heaton-Harris, Hilary Benn, the shadow Northern Ireland secretary, said Labour would be voting for the legislation to implement the “safeguarding the union” changes. He said:
I have always made it clear that we believe in Northern Ireland’s place in the internal market of the United Kingdom and that we support any practical measures that reinforce this which are consistent with the Windsor framework, which we also support, and which have the support of nationalists as well as unionists. On that basis, we will vote for the legislation.
He also said that negotiating the deal was “a great achievement” by Heaton-Harris.
Updated
The Heaton-Harris statement is now over. In the Commons Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons, has just told MPs that tomorrow they will debate regulations to implement the measures in the Northern Ireland deal.
In the Commons Colum Eastwood, the leader of the SDLP (a Northern Ireland nationalist party), asked if Heaton-Harris backed reform to the Good Friday agreement to ensure “no one party can pull them down again”.
Heaton-Harris said this was a matter for MLAs at Stormont.
This is what the command paper says would happen if the UK government wants to pass legislation that would further diverge from EU law, creating a risk that border controls on goods going from Great Britain to Northern Ireland might have to change.
We will ensure that whenever parliament is considering new legislation, it has the information needed about any impacts on the internal market and measures necessary to protect Northern Ireland’s place in the internal market, to decide how to proceed.
To ensure complete transparency, the government will legislate to require that a minister in charge of a bill must assess whether or not it has an impact on trade between Great Britain and Northern Ireland and, if so, make a statement to parliament setting out whether the legislation would have significant adverse implications for Northern Ireland’s place in the UK internal market. Where primary legislation does carry such implications for the internal market, the government will set out any measures it proposes to take to protect the internal market.
In the Commons Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg, another leading Brexiter, asked Heaton-Harris to give an example of when this mechanism might be deployed. Heaton-Harris was unable to give one.
Updated
Priti Patel, the former home secretary, and another leading Brexiter, asks Heaton-Harris to confirm that the UK still has the full ability to diverge from EU laws if it wants.
Heaton-Harris says that is the case. He repeats the point about how the deal will not affect the UK’s ability to diverge, or its commitment to do so if that is in the UK’s interests.
Heaton-Harris says he does not expect to see Irish reunification in his lifetime
Richard Drax, a Tory Brexiter, says “whispering” from Sinn Féin about reunification has been unhelpful. Can the government say that will never happen?
Heaton-Harris says he has to be careful, because as secretary of state he is the person who would authorise a border poll. But he says that he expects Northern Ireland to remain part of the UK for the rest of his lifetime.
He says the Good Friday agreement says reunification would only happen with the consent of both communities.
Heaton-Harris is 56.
Updated
Heaton-Harris says deal will not stop government diverging from EU law 'should it be in interests of UK'
Sammy Wilson (DUP) asked if the UK government would still have the power to diverge from EU laws, and implement laws that would not apply to Northern Ireland.
Heaton-Harris says this package of laws will not reduce the UK’s ability to diverge, or the government’s “commitment to do so should it be in the interests of the United Kingdom”.
He says, if there is a possibility of a measure having a diverse impact on GB/NI trade, the government would have to publish a ministerial statement justifying this.
Updated
Sir Bill Cash, another leading Brexiter, asked what the deal would do to ensure EU laws affecting Northern Ireland could be blocked.
Heaton-Harris said that deal includes changes to the Withdrawal Act that will strengthen the “Stormont lock” mechanism that provides a democratic safeguard.
In the Commons Theresa Villiers, a former Northern Ireland secretary and a leading Brexiter, pointed out that the new deal did not take Northern Ireland out of the single market. She asked if the government was still committed to negotiating with the EU to amend the Windsor framework to restore democratic control to law making in every part of the UK.
In response, Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, said the deal does contain changes affecting the framework.
Updated
What command paper on Northern Ireland, setting out details of DUP deal, actually says
This is from PA Media on what the command paper says:
It commits to replacing the green lane, which currently requires a percentage of goods to be checked, with a “UK internal market system” that will govern the movement of goods that will remain within the UK.
The paper said that would ensure there would be “no checks when goods move within the UK internal market system save those conducted by UK authorities as part of a risk-based or intelligence-led approach to tackle criminality, abuse of the scheme, smuggling and disease risks”.
The paper adds: “This will ensure the smooth flow of goods that are moving within the UK internal market.”
The red lane for transporting goods from GB to NI and on into the EU single market will remain, but the command paper offers measures aimed at reducing the volume of trade required to use that red-tape heavy route.
The move to reduce post-Brexit checks on GB-NI trade would represent a change to the current EU/UK Windsor framework agreement and therefore would require Brussels approval. It is understood decisions on implementing the changes are expected to be examined within the existing EU/UK joint committee framework in the time ahead.
As well as moves to cut Brexit bureaucracy on Irish Sea trade, the command papers includes a series of measures aimed at providing assurances around Northern Ireland’s constitutional position within the United Kingdom.
Legislation will be tabled with the purpose of “affirming Northern Ireland’s constitutional status underpinned by, among other provisions, the Acts of Union.”
The paper said: “The legislation will affirm parliament’s sovereignty over all matters in Northern Ireland, and address the concern that Northern Ireland’s constitutional position in the union has been weakened by the creation of specific arrangements for trade in goods.”
The government has also pledged to amend domestic law, specifically section 7A of the European Union (Withdrawal) Act, to affirm the fact that new EU laws will not automatically apply in Northern Ireland, and must first be subject to democratic oversight by the Stormont assembly.
The oversight procedures already outlined in the Windsor framework include the so-called Stormont brake mechanism that enables 30 or more MLAs to flag a concern about a new EU law planned to come into effect in Northern Ireland. The government is obliged to assess whether those concerns meet a threshold that could then result in the UK vetoing the application of the law in the region.
The command paper also includes commitments to ensure Northern Ireland goods will always be able to be sold in the GB market regardless of any divergence in EU and UK standards.
In respect of further UK divergence from EU standards, there is also a legal requirement that new legislation is assessed as to whether it “impacts on trade between Northern Ireland and Great Britain”.
If it does there will be a statutory duty for the relevant minister to make a statement “considering any impacts on the operation of Northern Ireland’s place in the UK’s internal market”.
A requirement that saw certain goods sold in Northern Ireland to display a label stating “not for sale in the EU” will now to extend to cover the whole UK.
The government is also creating two new bodies. An UK east-west council will bring together representatives from government, business and the education sector from Northern Ireland and Great Britain to “identify opportunities for deepening connections between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK in areas such as trade, transport, education and culture”.
Intertrade UK will promote trade within the UK. Among its roles will be to proactively communicate with businesses that currently choose not to sell products in Northern Ireland and identify solutions that could enable them to expand their services to the region.
Updated
Chris Heaton-Harris makes statement to MPs on deal with DUP
Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, has just finished making his statement to MPs about the deal with the DUP.
The details are set out in an 80-page command paper just published by the government.
PMQs - snap verdict
Rishi Sunak must be getting used to floundering at PMQs on the cost of living crisis, but today he was even weaker than usual. This probably won’t be remembered as a classic exchange, but it was one that Keir Starmer won comfortably by deploying three familiar tactics.
First, Starmer started with a joke that was funny enough to be disarming, but sharp enough to make a political point. He referred to this story about the Tory MP George Freeman.
One of the most difficult experiences of any member of this house is speaking to those at the sharp end of this government’s cost-of-living crisis. So nobody could fail to be moved by the plight of [Freeman].
His mortgage has gone up £1,200 a month, he’s been forced to quit his dream job to pay for it. A Tory MP counting the cost of Tory chaos. After 14 years, have we finally discovered what they meant when they said ‘we’re all in this together’?
Starmer then hammered away on the cost of living for the rest of the session. He repeatedly challenged Sunak to say how much the average cost of a mortgage was going up for someone coming off a fixed rate deal, and he deployed the “real person” card, asking Sunak to say how he would explain himself to Phil, an employee he met at Iceland, facing a £1,000-a- month rise in his mortgage.
There is not really a particularly good answer a PM can give in response to a question like this. For the election, the Tories have settled on the argument that they are committed to bringing down taxes, while Labour would put them up (even though they say they won’t). In the circumstances this is probably the best messaging available, and it is understandable why Sunak has chosen to stick with it.
But Labour’s decision to support the national insurance cut that came into force this week has made it harder for the Tories to deploy this line and so now, unable to attack Labour for opposing tax cuts, they are having a go at Labour for not actually adoring them. This was the theme a CCHQ press release on Monday criticising Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, for describing the tax cuts as being part of a “scorched earth” policy and it was a line deployed by Sunak today. It is not a compelling one; fiscal thought crime is not a terrible offence, particularly when the IMF agree with you.
There were two other aspects of Sunak’s performance that made things worse. First, on mortgage costs, he argued:
Someone on a typical mortgage of about £140,000 with 17 years left is currently paying around £800. As a result of the ability to extend their mortgage term or switch to a six-month interest-only mortgage they will be able to save hundreds of pounds.
This is not much consolation to Phil, or anyone else, because anyone using these options won’t be saving money at all; they will just be delaying repayments.
And, second, Sunak referred to Phil from Iceland in a way that sounded patronising. Almost certainly, this was not what Sunak intended. But it is how it came across, and that’s gruesome.
Starmer has repeatedly argued that Sunak is too out of touch to be a successful PM. Today’s PMQs made this charge ever more compelling, and this helps to explain why, according to Ipsos polling published yesterday, Starmer is opening up an ever bigger lead on best PM.
Updated
Government publishes details of new proposals for Northern Ireland
The government has published what it calls a command paper effectively setting out details of the deal aimed at restoring power sharing at Stormont.
The paper, which you can read here, includes a commitment to removing the post-Brexit green lane for checking goods shipped from Great Britain to final destinations in Northern Ireland.
No 10 says that the deal with the Democratic Unionist party contains “significant” changes to the Windsor framework’s operation.
The PM’s official spokesperson said:
This is our negotiation between the UK and the DUP, this is not about altering the fundamentals of the Windsor framework.
We do believe the changes we are implementing are significant and the DUP have made similar comments.
Pressed on the “significant” changes, he said that they were to the “operation of the framework”.
He declined to say whether talks have been held with the EU, saying he would not discuss “private conversations”.
He added:
It’s important to make clear that this was a negotiation between the UK and the DUP about ensuring the framework operates properly within the UK.
Updated
I have beefed up the earlier post at 12.02pm to include the full quote from Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the speaker. He complained that MPs’ behaviour was getting worse at PMQs, and he suggested the approaching election was partly to blame.
Sunak distances himself from David Cameron's suggestion UK might bring forward recognition of Palestinian state
Michael Ellis (Con) asks if the PM agrees that any recognition of a Palestinian state can only come about as a result of negotiations between Israel and Palestine.
Sunak says recognition of Palestine would have to be part of a process. He suggests that many steps would have to come first, and he says the UK stands with Israel.
That sounded like a mild rebuke to David Cameron. Neither Ellis nor Sunak mentioned Cameron, and Cameron’s speech on this earlier this week did not explicitly contradict what Sunak was saying today. But Cameron was floating the idea of bringing forward the moment when the UK might recognise a Palestinian state – while Sunak seemed to be kicking the prospect back into the long grass.
UPDATE: Ellis said:
All of us want to see a peaceful and demilitarised Palestinian state, however Hamas remain in control in large parts of Gaza, support is growing in the West Bank.
Nearly two-thirds of Palestinians in polling reject coexistence with Israel, and the Palestinian Authority has continued to promote hatred of Jews.
Does [the PM] agree that any recognition of a Palestinian state must address these issues and can only come about as part of a negotiated settlement between Israel and the Palestinians?
And Sunak replied:
The government’s position is clear. [Ellis] is right that steps and conditions need to be put in place on this journey: first and foremost, the removal of Hamas from Gaza; a Palestinian-led government in Gaza and the West Bank; a concrete plan to reform and support the Palestinian Authority; a reconstruction plan for Gaza; and a two-state solution, which we have long supported.
Let me be clear: we stand with Israel. The terrorist threat it faces must be eliminated and Israel’s lasting security must be guaranteed.
Updated
Marsha de Cordova (Lab) cites research saying half of employers exclude blind people. Will the PM have a meeting about creating a more inclusive workforce?
Sunak says he wants to see the workforce become more inclusive. The DWP is looking at this, he says.
Dawn Butler (Lab) says people in public life should not act to obtain personal advantage. She says Sunak tweeted a link to an advert allowing the Tories to scrape data. (It was asking for email addresses.) Is Sunak confident he did not break the law?
Sunak says of course he didn’t.
Updated
Jo Gideon (Con) asks Sunak to back community banking as an option.
Sunak says the Post Office Horizon scandal does not mean the Post Office does not provide a valuable service.
Andrew Bridgen (Ind) says Tony Blair promoted the Horizon system, which generated untold misery. He asks Sunak what he has promoted that has done the same.
Sunak says Bridgen was wrong to imply Covid vaccines are not safe.
Selaine Saxby (Con) asks about dental provision in Devon. She asks when the govenrment’s plan for dentistry is coming.
Sunak says more financial support is being delivered for this sector. But more needs to be done, he says. The dentistry recovery plan will be published soon, he says,
Dehenna Davison (Con) asks if the PM agrees that one-punch manslaughter should be a specific offence. (Her father was killed this way, but she refers to a recent case where someone who killed in this manner received a light sentence.)
Sunak says the government will consider Davison’s call for a change in the law on this.
Stephen Flynn, the SNP leader at Westminster, goes on bankers’ bonuses. Labour was right to oppose the plan to scrap the cap. But now they are in favour. That is shameful. Is the PM comforted by being no longer alone in being out of touch with public opinion.
Sunak says the government followed the recommendations of an independent regulator. He says Labour has no principles.
Flynn says this was a result of Brexit. And Brexit red tape is pushing up food prices. He refers to “broken Brexit Britain”, and says the Tories have got Labour to endorse this too.
Sunak says the best thing the SNP could do to help people with the cost of living would be to stop Scotland being the highest-taxed place in the UK.
Sunak ‘just doesn’t get how hard it is for people’, says Starmer, as he attacks prime minister over cost of mortgages
Starmer says he did not expect Sunak to laugh at Phil. Sunak just does not get how hard it is for people. He is so detached. He cannot even fool his own MPs. George Freeman is exhausted, and wants opportunities outside parliament. Why won’t the PM just call an election?
Sunak says he is getting on with the plan. Just this week, he is tackling vaping, extending powers to pharmacies, and tax cuts are coming into force.
Updated
Starmer says Sunak should explain to Phil how paying an extra £1,000 a month will make him better off. Most people do not have that money available. This shows how out of touch Sunak is. And he says council tax is going up.
Sunak accuses Starmer of resorting to the “politics of envy”. Labour used to attack the government for lifting the bonus cap. But Labour has changed his position. Did Starmer mention that to Phil? This shows you cannot trust a word Starmer says.
Updated
Starmer asks about a worker he met at Iceland whose mortgage is going up £1,000 a month. If George Freeman MP, on £120,000, can’t afford this government, how can Phil from Iceland?
Sunak says inflation is going down. And people are benefiting from the tax cut coming into force this month. Did Starmer explain to Phil how he would have to pay for Labour’s £28bn spending spree.
Updated
Starmer asks the question again. For those coming off fixed rate mortgages, how much will their mortgages go up by?
Sunak says the measures in place announced by the chancellor last week will allow mortgages to stay essentially the same. He refers to Labour’s £28bn green plan and claims Ed Miliband said in an interview at the weekend the party did not need to say how it would pay for it.
Updated
Starmer says the government has put taxes up, and is only giving some of that back. And Sunak expects people to be dancing in the streets. How much are monthly payments going up?
Sunak says someone with a monthly mortage of £800 a month will be able to save money as a result of measures like allowing them to extend.
Keir Starmer says all sides need to work together to get Stormont up and running.
And he says he too met the families of the Nottingham attack victims. He says it is impossible to express the horror of what they experienced.
He says one of the hardest jobs for MPs is speaking to people at the sharp end of the cost of living crisis. So no one won’t be moved by the plight of George Freeman, who had to give up his “dream job” as a minister because he could not afford his mortgage. Is this what they meant by ‘we’re all in it together’?
Sunak says, if Starmer cared about this, he would focus on what is being done. Taxes are being cut. But Starmer has described tax cuts as “salting the earth”, and Rachel Reeves has described them as a scorched-earth policy.
Updated
Henry Smith (Con) asks about support for sustainable aviation projects.
Sunak says the government is mandating the use of sustainable aviation fuel. That will help to develop the industry in the UK.
Joanna Cherry (SNP) asks about a constituent who worked for a supermarket that operated a Post Office franchise. She was wrongly accused of dishonesty because of the Horizon system. Will people like her be included in the compensation scheme?
Sunak says the government will look into this case, and other similar ones, and get back to Cherry soon.
Updated
Rishi Sunak says on Monday he met the families of the Nottingham stabbing attacks. And he welcomes the prospect of power sharing being restored at Stormont.
Commons speaker Lindsay Hoyle suggests approaching election has made MPs' behaviour worse at PMQs
Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the speaker, starts by saying MPs have been making too much noise at PMQs. He says bad behaviour has escalated. He urges MPs to show more restraint.
UPDATE: Hoyle said:
Recent exchanges have been lively to the point where it is becoming difficult for colleagues to hear what is being said clearly.
There has been an escalation in unhelpful exchanges across the floor of the House from sedentary positions, and the attempted use of props.
Some of the language used in questions has also fallen short of the standard and good temper and moderation that should characterise the proceedings of this house.
I know there is a general election approaching but I would urge members on both sides of the house to exercise greater self-restraint in their choice of words and in their general behaviour, both when they are asking a question and when they are not.
Updated
Here is the list of MPs down to ask a question.
Sunak faces Starmer at PMQs
Rishi Sunak is about to take PMQs.
Sinn Féin's Michelle O'Neill says everyone in island of Ireland 'has been failed as direct result of partition'
Yesterday Sinn Féin said that a united Ireland was now “in touching distance”, as Rory Carroll reports.
Today Michelle O’Neill, the first minister designate and Sinn Féin leader in Northern Ireland, said everyone on the island of Ireland had been “failed” by partition.
Speaking after her meeting with Micheál Martin, the tánaiste (Irish deputy PM) in Belfast, O’Neill said:
I think we have so much hope and opportunity in terms of the change, as we have been failed. Everyone across this island has been failed as a direct result of partition. Our people have been forced to live back-to-back instead of side-by-side.
So let’s look at the opportunities we have ahead of us and that’s why we call on the Irish government to create the forum in which we can have a healthy conversation about change, about education, about health across the island.
We are running two health services back-to-back, two education systems. We have so much opportunity that we need to harness and work together.
I think the debate that we are going to have over the next decade is going to be one that hope and opportunity and benefits.
But it has to be inclusive, it has to be about us all and about Irish identity, British identity and the people who have made here their homes, all coming together.
Updated
Jamie Bryson, the loyalist activist and blogger who has been one of the most vocal critics in Northern Ireland of the DUP’s deal with the UK government, has challenged Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP leader, to a public debate.
💥 🇬🇧 A CHALLENGE TO SIR JEFFREY DONALDSON:
— Jamie Bryson (@JamieBrysonCPNI) January 31, 2024
As someone who stood on anti-Protocol platforms with Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, I challenge him to face me or Jim Allister in a public debate either tonight or tomorrow night after the publication of the legal text.
He and his team have… https://t.co/b7TipSltlk
If this deal does what Sir Jeffrey and his close allies claim it does – but which senior constitutional law experts in his own party such as Lord Dodds says it does not – then why would he be afraid of taking us on, exposing us as being the ones in the wrong and putting beyond all doubt that his claims can stand up to scrutiny?
Sir Jeffrey was good enough to stand with us at anti-protocol rallies sharing our message and to march alongside us. He now calls us ‘naysayers’, well now is his chance to confound us and expose us once and for all. Take us on publicly, dismantle our arguments, show how you are right and we are wrong, and let everyone see you do it.
We aren’t afraid of public debate, why are you Sir Jeffrey?
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Boris Johnson says DUP deal must not be allowed to limit UK's ability to diverge from EU laws
But at least one Tory Brexiter is still defending the project. Boris Johnson, the former PM, has posted this on X.
Four years on from Brexit we celebrate the restoration of this country’s democratic power to make its own laws and rules. With those Brexit freedoms we have introduced improved standards for animal welfare, cut taxes on sanitary products, created greater flexibility for cutting…
— Boris Johnson (@BorisJohnson) January 31, 2024
Four years on from Brexit we celebrate the restoration of this country’s democratic power to make its own laws and rules. With those Brexit freedoms we have introduced improved standards for animal welfare, cut taxes on sanitary products, created greater flexibility for cutting edge industries from financial services to bioscience, done many global free trade deals – and it was at least partly thanks to Brexit that this country had the fastest Covid vaccine rollout in Europe.
We must retain the appetite and the courage to diverge from the low-growth high-regulation European model. We must at all costs avoid a return to anything remotely like the disastrous “Chequers” formula whereby artificial concerns about the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland are used to keep the whole of the UK in alignment with EU rules.
In the past Johnson used to claim that the UK was able to have a speedy vaccine rollout entirely because of Brexit. Now he seems to have refined that a bit, saying it was “partly” due to Brexit. But he is still wrong, as numerous factcheck reports have stated, like this one.
Johnson’s main point, about the need for the UK to retain the ability to diverge from EU rules, is a response to claims that the DUP deal will somehow restrict that. We will find out later to what extent, if at all, that is true.
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Only 13% of Britons think Brexit has been a success, poll suggests
As discussed earlier (see 9.22am), so far there has been almost no protest from Tory Brexiters about the deal with the DUP – even though there are reports that it might limit the chance of the UK diverging from EU rules. That may change later when the full details of the deal are published.
Or it may not. And if it doesn’t, perhaps that is because championing Brexit is not exactly a vote-winner at the moment. Ipsos has published polling this morning suggesting that only 13% of people view Brexit as a success and that, by a factor of more than 4 to 1, they are outnumbered by the 57% who view it as a failure.
The polling also suggests 70% of people think Brexit has been bad for the economy.
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There are three statements in the Commons today after PMQs at 12pm. The first, from Dame Andrea Leadsom, a health minister, will be about the plan to let pharmacies in England treat people for minor ailments.
Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, will make a statement about the deal with the DUP after that, starting at around 1.30pm. When he finishes Penny Mordaunt, the leader of the Commons, will make a business statement, presumably about plans to the Commons to pass legislation related to the DUP deal before the end of the week.
Carolyn Harris (Lab) asked Cleverly if he agreed with Robert Jenrick, the former immigration minister, that any flights that did leave for Rwanda before the election were only likely to be “symbolic” because of the low number of people likely to be affected.
Cleverly said he did not agree. He would not describe flights like that, he said. He said the policy was meant to have a deterrent effect, and flights taking off would be a deterrent.
Cleverly tells MPs he cannot say how many of 33,000 asylum seekers liable for deportation to Rwanda might actually go
Diana Johnson then asked Cleverly how many of those 33,085 asylum seekers were likely to be sent to Rwanda.
Cleverly refused to give a specific answer. He said it would depend on how many returns agreements were in place. The government was still negotiating those, he said.
He went on:
So it’s entirely feasible that a significant number within that cohort will be returned to their country of origin.
Q: But what about the numbers to Rwanda? How many of those 33,000 will go there?
Cleverly said it would depend on how many went to other countries.
Johnson repeated the question.
Cleverly said the Rwanda scheme was uncapped, so there was no upper limit. But he repeated the point that he could not give a number, because it would depend on any returns agreements with other countries.
Q: Is it 100, 1,000, 10,000?
Cleverly said Johnson was asking the same question. He went on:
You’re asking for a figure that no one can provide, because it is contingent on other things happening … It is entirely dependent on what other work we do
He said the figure could be “quite low” or that it could be “nearly at that figure” (which seemed to be a reference to 10,000, but Cleverly was not specific).
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Cleverly tells MPs asylum application backlog not a backlog but a 'queue'
Back at the home affairs committee Diana Johnson, the Labour chair, asks if the 33,085 asylum seekers mentioned earlier (see 10.17am) are in the asylum caseload backlog.
James Cleverly, the home secretary, says they are part of the 94,000 caseload. But he disputes the suggestion that this is a “backlog”. He says he would describe it instead as a queue. And he explains why.
There are a number of cases that we are working through. At any given time, someone who has arrived will be added the caseload. By your definition, if someone arrived yesterday, that would be a backlog. And I don’t agree with that as a definition.
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Micheál Martin, the tánaiste (Irish deputy PM), is in Belfast today for talks with the political parties. After meeting Martin, Doug Beattie, leader of the Ulster Unionist party, told journalists that he thought everybody was “pretty comfortable” with the deal secured by the DUP. He said:
I think everybody is pretty comfortable with what the deal is. I don’t think anybody is concerned. I think everything that is going to happen is going to happen within the confines of what has already been agreed in regards to the Windsor framework.
What we are really talking about is the application of the Windsor framework and certain things that may well change.
I think Sinn Féin have known about this since last year and they are not jumping up and down, the European Commission is not jumping up and down, the Irish government is not jumping up and down. So it tells you that it falls within an agreed framework.
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Q: Why is David Neal, the independent chief inspector of borders and immigration (ICIBI), not having his contract renewed?
Cleverly says he cannot say. There may be a reason he cannot share with the committee.
Tim Loughton (Con) says Neal has submitted 10 reports to the Home Office which have not yet been published.
Dan Hobbs, director general for the migration and borders group at the Home Office, tells the committee that there are 33,085 asylum seekers who arrived in the UK after the Illegal Migration Act came into force, most of whom are on bail.
Tim Loughton (Con) asks James Cleverly, the home secretary, if he is comfortable about this many people being missing.
Cleverly says he would not describe them as missing.
But he says there are many numbers relating to the asylum system that he is not comfortable with.
He says it would be “incredibly costly” to put all these people in accommodation.
Loughton says there is a growing cohort of people in limbo. And there is a “fairly strong possibility” that we do not know where large numbers of these people are. This number will only grow.
Q: Where did these 33,085 people come from?
Hobbs says this figures does not just cover people arriving in small boats. It includes other people arriving illegally.
Q: Re the ones not arriving in small boats, how do they get here?
Hobbs says some arrive at ferry points. Some arrive at airports, with fraudulent documents. And some arrive through the common travel area with Ireland.
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Nicola Sturgeon, the former Scottish first minister, has just started giving evidence to the UK Covid inquiry in Edinburgh.
Ben Quinn is covering the hearing on a separate live blog here.
Tim Loughton (Con) asks Sir Matthew Rycroft, the permanent secretary, about what has happened to the 17,000 asylum applicants who withdrew there applications. He points out that, when Rycroft was last at the committee, Rycroft could not answer.
Rycroft says the Home Office has established what happened to them. It set out the figures in a letter to the committee from a minister.
In that letter the Home Office said there were 5,598 of these asylum seekers still in the UK but not contactable by the Home Office.
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Diane Abbott, who currently sits as an independent MP because she has been suspended by Labour, goes next.
She asks about the Bibby Stockholm. She says the committee visited it, and two people are sleeping in rooms intended for one person.
Q: Are you confident the space allocated people meets legal requirements?
Yes, says Cleverly. He is “totally confident” about that.
Q: And are you confident that anyone who is suicidal on the Bibby Stockholm would get the help they need. The person who committed suicide there was talking about suicide in advance.
Cleverly says he does not want to talk about that case. It is still being investigated by the coroner.
Abbott say she is not asking about the individual case. She is asking about mental health support generally.
Cleverly says he takes mental health very seriously, and he wants to see if the coroner has any recommendations to make in this case.
Back at the home affairs committee James Daly (Con) asks why so few police investigations end up in people being charged.
James Cleverly, the home secretary, says the Crown Prosecution Service is independent. He wants to make sure investigations are as professional as possible.
Q: Do you think all shoplifters should be charged?
Cleverly says he is reluctant to give a blanket answer, but he says shoplifting is a crime and should be taken seriously.
Ruling out reimposing cap on bankers' bonuses 'a terrible decision out of touch with Labour's values', says Momentum
Momentum, the leftwing Labour group, has said that Rachel Reeves’ decision to rule out reimposing the cap on bankers’ bonuses is a terrible decision. It has posted these comments on X.
A terrible decision totally out of touch with Labour's values and public opinion. https://t.co/17MmijkGLc
— Momentum 🌹 (@PeoplesMomentum) January 31, 2024
A terrible decision totally out of touch with Labour’s values and public opinion.
For over forty years our economic model has sucked wealth from the country & enriched a few in the City.
It even crashed the economy in 2008.
Yet instead of learning the lessons from New Labour’s failures, Starmer & Reeves seem determined to repeat them.
Brexit checks ‘price you pay for being a sovereign state again’, Andea Leadsom says
British businesses experiencing “some friction” when trading with the European Union after Brexit is the “price you pay” for “being a sovereign state again”, Dame Andrea Leadsom, the health minister and former business secretary has said. Aletha Adu has the story.
Diana Johnson, the Labour chair of the committee, starts the questioning of Cleverly.
Q: You have said violent crime is falling. But rape, sexual assault and stalking are not included in the definition of violent crime. So isn’t it misleading to say violent crime is falling?
Cleverly says there is always a challenge using consistent metrics.
Rape is obviously violent crime, he says.
But there is a need to compare like with like, and that is why it makes sense not to change the basket of crimes used for this measure. Consistency provides value, he says.
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James Cleverly gives evidence to Commons home affairs committee
James Cleverly, the home secretary, is giving evidence to the home affairs committee. It is his first appearance before them since he was appointed in November last year.
He is appearing with Sir Matthew Rycroft, permanent secretary at the Home Office.
Rycroft’s last appearance at this committee was a disaster, and so Cleverly is unlikely to get an easy ride.
According to the committee, the hearing will cover small boats and Rwanda, legal migration, the Home Office’s culture, violence against women and girls, and policing.
There is a live feed here.
Luke Tryl, who as UK director for the campaigning group More in Common carries out extensive research into public opinion, says Labour may be making a mistake in ruling out restoring the cap on bankers’ bonuses. (See 8.57am.)
Of course Labour needs to build good relations with business but they risk missing how the mood of the country has shifted on business/banks. Among the angriest I have heard people in focus groups is on the lack of a windfall tax and sense some are profiting from other’s misery.
Of course Labour needs to build good relations with business but they risk missing how the mood of the country has shifted on business/banks. Among the angriest I have heard people in focus groups is on the lack of a windfall tax and sense some are profiting from other’s misery. https://t.co/muTm6Fg3PU
— Luke Tryl (@LukeTryl) January 31, 2024
Dame Andrea Leadsom, the health minister and a former business secretary, has played down complaints that Brexit has led to higher costs for businesses, saying there are always costs to doing business and that Brexit brings opportunities.
On Sky News this morning, asked to respond to the case of a florist struggling to import flowers from the Netherlands because of the cost of post-Brexit checks, she replied:
Businesses always face the cost of doing business. Businesses knew at the time of Brexit that in leaving the European single market there would be additional checks at the border because, by definition, we were no longer in that single market. There was no surprise about that.
I can certainly remember as business secretary myself back in 2019 every day meeting with businesses, roundtables, to help them to prepare for us actually leaving the European Union and to understand the additional checks that would be required.
So businesses are used to the costs of doing business. I understand that today is a big news story because it is something that finally has come home to roost.
But the fact of the matter remains that businesses have huge opportunities with other parts of the world which are the direct benefit of us leaving the European Union.
Can’t buy economically from Europe anymore? Buy British instead, says the Government
— Kay Burley (@KayBurley) January 31, 2024
Here's minister @andrealeadsom#KayBurley #Brexit PO pic.twitter.com/0itAuSoWPw
Yesterday, as Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP leader, set out details of the deal he has got from the UK government to adjust the Windsor framework, there were no senior figures from his party speaking out to denounce the deal. Full details are only being published this afternoon.
But there was mostly silence from Tory Brexiters. During the Brexit negotiations, the DUP and the hardline Brexiters were aligned in their opposition to Theresa May’s plans, but it has been reported that the new deal might limit the extent to which the UK diverges from EU rules, and this is something liable to provoke the Tories.
Today the i says Brexiters may claim Brexit has been betrayed. In their story, Arj Singh and Hugo Gye report:
But the Tories are said to be concerned about the extent of the screening mechanism, after the Telegraph reported that all legislation would need to be accompanied by a ministerial statement saying it did not have an adverse effect on internal UK trade.
While this would not stop ministers diverging from the EU, even if it created trade barriers in the Irish sea, Brexiteers are concerned that it is a significant extra hurdle.
A source from the Tory European Research Group (ERG) told i it “amounts to much the same” as alignment with the EU.
Shadow chancellor Rachel Reeves rules out bringing back cap on bankers’ bonuses
Good morning. Keir Starmer has said that he is “bomb-proofing” Labour’s policy offer before the election, which largely consists of identifying any proposal likely to be criticised as leftwing, radical or anti-aspiration by the Daily Mail and consigning it to the bin. The latest example has emerged today.
Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, has said Labour would not reinstate the cap on bankers’ bonuses that was introduced in 2014, as part of an EU initiative intended to limit the risk-taking in the financial sector blamed for the 2008 crash, and abolished by Liz Truss in her mini-budget.
In an interview with the BBC, Reeves said:
The cap on bankers’ bonuses was brought in in the aftermath of the global financial crisis and that was the right thing to do to rebuild the public finances.
But that has gone now and we don’t have any intention of bringing that back.
And as chancellor of the exchequer, I would want to be a champion of a successful and thriving financial services industry in the UK.
The announcement won’t come as a huge surprise, and it will be welcome in the City, where analysts argued the cap never worked anyway because all it did was encourage banks to pay much higher basic salaries as an alternative. But it is another example of the gap between Labour and the Conservatives on economic policy narrowing.
Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: James Cleverly, the home secretary, gives evidence to the home affairs committee.
9.30am: Rhun ap Iorwerth, the Plaid Cymru leader, holds a press conference on independence in Cardiff.
10am: Nicola Sturgeon, the former Scottish first minister, gives evidence to the UK Covid inquiry in Edinburgh. We will be covering that on a separate live blog.
12pm: Rishi Sunak faces Keir Starmer at PMQs.
After 12.30pm: Chris Heaton-Harris, the Northern Ireland secretary, makes a statement to the Commons about the deal with the DUP to restore power sharing.
If you want to contact me, do try the “send us a message” feature. You’ll see it just below the byline – on the left of the screen, if you are reading on a laptop or a desktop. This is for people who want to message me directly. I find it very useful when people message to point out errors (even typos – no mistake is too small to correct). Often I find your questions very interesting, too. I can’t promise to reply to them all, but I will try to reply to as many as I can, either in the comments below the line; privately (if you leave an email address and that seems more appropriate); or in the main blog, if I think it is a topic of wide interest.
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