A massive stretch of the New South Wales coast is forecast to be hit by dangerous weather with a second east coast low set to deliver heavy rains and strong winds.
The Bureau of Meteorology has expanded its warning zone for towns and communities stretching almost 1,000km from Coffs Harbour south towards the Victorian border.
The NSW State Emergency Service on Mondy evening warned dangerous conditions were expected to increase for large parts of the coastline, including Sydney. Renewed flooding and landslides were possible, along with severe thunderstorms, hazardous surf, damaging wind and hail.
Heavy rain and strong winds forecast tonight for large part of coastal NSW. It could bring new flooding, and see already flooded rivers rise more. The rain and wind also brings a risk of trees falling. Stay safe and stay up to date with warnings from @BOM_NSW and @NSWSES #NSWRFS pic.twitter.com/JCnN7ktSHu
— NSW RFS (@NSWRFS) March 7, 2022
A severe weather warning was in place between Taree and Bega, while conditions were expected to worsen on the mid-north coast and the Hunter, Sydney, Illawarra and South Coast regions.
“Heavy rain may cause flash flooding, and river heights could rise rapidly over and above what has been experienced in the past few days,” the SES said.
“This could happen during the night. Strong winds are expected which could cause trees and powerlines to fall. Landslides are also possible, which could block roads.”
Six-hourly rainfall totals between 70mm to 120 mm were possible, the bureau said, with a peak expected in Sydney and the Illawarra on Monday evening into Tuesday.
Damaging wind guests with peaks in excess of 90 km/h were possible on Tuesday across Sydney, the South Coast, Illawarra and the Southern Tablelands, continuing into Wednesday.
Doon Doon in NSW copped 1040 mm in 48 hours. That's more than one metre of rain in two days! This rain rate, in this part of NSW, has an annual exceedance probability of between 0.1 and 0.05% (1-in-1000 to 1-in-2000 year event). pic.twitter.com/sMADkb2JLy
— Ben Domensino (@Ben_Domensino) March 7, 2022
Updated forecasts for Tuesday said Sydney’s falls could range from 50mm to 80mm, and as much as 150mm at Penrith. Wollongong, not far to the south, may get 90mm to 300mm, indicating the difficulties for meteorologists in picking the low’s impact.
“This one is going to come with more wind [than last week’s east coast low] but rainfall totals may be fairly similar,” bureau meteorologist Hugh McDowell said.
“There’s more likely to be trees coming down with this one than the last one. Sodden ground doesn’t help things at all.”
The NSW SES said the state had 16 evacuation warnings in place for its central coastal region, including parts of Sydney, with forecasts of more heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding as a second east coast low looms in as many weeks. Across the state, 43 evacuation orders remain in place.
Fire and Rescue NSW crews were dispatched on Monday to the scene of a major landslide, caused by intense rainfall, at Katoomba in the Blue Mountains.
FRNSW said the rail line was also in danger as greater Sydney braces for more rain.
Some large rain totals had already been recorded in the 24 hours to 9am Monday, including one gauge near Shoalhaven that collected 253mm, and Wottamolla, south of Sydney, with 191mm, McDowell said. Some 118.5mm of rain fell in six hours at Mittagong.
#Sydney’s Hawkesbury River region has many roads closed like this one: pic.twitter.com/r6AcIPqThP
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) March 6, 2022
Sydney and surrounds are in for two more days of potentially heavy rain from an east coast low. @BOM_au pic.twitter.com/ktAIXn5oTQ
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) March 6, 2022
The NSW SES has issued evacuation warnings for parts of the Hawkesbury-Nepean River, which continues to flow at major flood levels at North Richmond. Levels were steady on Monday morning.
A road weather alert has been issued for metro Sydney through to the Central Coast and Illawarra, with a warning heavy rain and strong winds could down trees and powerlines, cut roads and cause land slips.
Dams around Sydney were 100% full and most were spilling as of Monday. The largest of them, Warragamba Dam, has been spilling since Wednesday morning.
The latest figures from WaterNSW show Warragamba Dam, Sydney’s main reservoir, was spilling at the daily rate of 160 gigalitres as of Monday morning.
Warragamba Dam update: it's spilling at a steady rate of 160 gigalitres per day, and inflows are running at 113GL/day and falling slightly, WaterNSW says. Rainfall today is expected to increase both the inflows and spill rate over the next 24 hours. pic.twitter.com/RwKFkZMHEv
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) March 7, 2022
Inflows into the dam are at 113 GL/day, but rainfall today is expected to boost both the inflows and spill rate over the next 24 hours.
“Based on the current forecast from the Bureau of Meteorology the upper range of that peak spill forecast remains 240-400GL/day tomorrow,” WaterNSW said.
Last week’s spill rate reached 315 gigalitres a day – it reached 450GL a day during the March 2021 floods.
Warragamba collected 46mm of rain in the 24 hours to 9am Monday, McDowell said. It may get another 100-200mm “broadly across that area” before the east coast low weakens and moves away from the coast, probably on Tuesday going into Wednesday.
Sydney and surrounds were forecast to have two more days of heavy rain, with falls approaching or exceeding 100mm possible.
Flood evacuation warnings were in place for Wisemans Ferry, Picton’s central business district and parts of the Hawkesbury-Nepean River.
Wollongong to the south of Sydney may collect even more rainfall. Lake Illawarra was another of the areas under an evacuation warning.
It will still be breezy on Wednesday before clear skies return, potentially breaking a run of rainy days for Sydney that began on 21 February.
The view from Pitt Down on Sunday … not usually so close to the Hawkesbury River. #nswfloods pic.twitter.com/3YI4zkZw5u
— Peter Hannam (@p_hannam) March 6, 2022
The SES had conducted 38 flood rescues in the past 24 hours, including 14 in the Sydney metro area.
According to an update from emergency services on Monday morning, there were about 280 ADF troops helping with flood assistance in hard-hit areas of NSW and Queensland. A basecamp for 100 troops is being built.
The NSW Rural Fire Service, meanwhile, has set up a basecamp at Wollongbar TAFE near Ballina. It will house 450 personnel to scale up to 550 as more shelters are added.
“Numerous communities across the Northern Rivers are currently isolated,” the report said.
Service NSW has set up a new phone number for community members in need of rapid relief and resupply requests.
The NSW government is also setting up a third incident control centre at Taree on the mid-North Coast to take control of coordination by Tuesday morning.
“Telco agencies are responding to multiple isolated outages and are progressively restoring services as access and conditions allow,” the emergency authorities report said.
Metro Sydney continues to face flood threats, and not just in the Hawkesbury-Nepean floodplain. Authorities, for instance, are planning for “potential operational activity” from the east coast low that forecasters are expecting to form.
Priority areas facing potential flooding include Sussex Inlet “around Tuesday”, the report said.
Floods have claimed six lives in NSW including four people in Lismore.
