As Senegal waits to learn whether President Macky Sall plans to plans to run in next year's presidential election, he has promised to speak publicly after the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha, which ends on Sunday.
"I will respond because now is the time to respond, but not today," Sall said last weekend at the close of his national dialogue with the opposition, which aimed to ease political tensions.
"I will give a speech to the nation. I will bring my answer."
The Senegalese president was originally supposed to speak on 25 June, but postponed.
He didn't give a new date, but said it would be after the most important Muslim holiday of the year, Eid al-Adha or Tabaski as it is known in Senegal, celebrated this year between 28 June and 2 July.
Sall launched three and a half weeks of national dialogue at the end of May, but most of the opposition boycotted the talks and still wants him to abandon any plans to run for a third term.
Election rivals opposed
One of his main opponents, Ousmane Sonko, was detained as the talks opened and subsequently sentenced to two years in prison on sexual assault charges that he claims are politically motivated.
A spokesperson for Sonko's Pastef party, Malick Ndiaye, told RFI English that Sall "has to keep his word to the Senegalese people".
"He promised many times to not run after this second mandate, so he must announce he won't," Ndiaye said.
All other eligible candidates must be allowed to compete "in free and fair elections", he added – including Sonko.
Three weeks ago, Sall's former ally turned election rival Idrissa Seck called on the president to clarify his position to help to restore peace.
Seck told RFI that "the problem with a third term is that even the prospect of it is causing turmoil".
"We are seeing violence and upheaval in our typically peaceful streets," he said. "We have seen death. This is not good for our people. Nor is it good for Senegal's global reach.
"This situation will only worsen if President Macky Sall announces a bid for a third term. It would be unprecedented and deeply damaging for Senegal."
Disputed term limits
Many analysts agree that Sall's silence is exacerbating tensions in Senegal.
For experts at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in South Africa, Sall’s upcoming address "will be critical to easing deep-seated political tensions that have thrown the country into chaos".
Persistent ambiguities in #Senegal about possible @Macky_Sall candidacy, opposed by many Senegalese, exacerbate tensions: political actors should create, through dialogue, conditions for peaceful & inclusive presidential elections.@PaulinToupane @ISSafrica https://t.co/lJ4Re7Eaow
— Jerome Mellon (@JeromeMellon) June 26, 2023
In a recent brief, they point out that Sall was elected in 2012 for a seven-year term under the 2001 constitution, which limited presidential terms to two. He subsequently proposed revising the constitution to reduce presidential terms from seven to five years.
The Constitutional Court ruled that the new limit couldn’t apply to Sall's first term. According to ISS researchers Paulin Maurice Toupane and Aïssatou Kanté, his supporters interpreted the advice as "as setting the record straight, with the first seven-year period in office being outside the scope of the term limits, therefore giving him another term".
But the opposition takes a different view, as do many Senegalese and civil society organisations.
"For the latter, the revision relates to the duration of terms of office and not term limits, which have been in place since a 2001 referendum," Toupane and Kanté explain. "That would mean Sall reached the constitutional limit of two terms after his re-election in 2019."
They also point to the run-up to the 2012 election, in which then president Abdoulaye Wade sought a controversial third term. The move triggered violent protests in which several people were killed.
Any scenario in which a major opposition figure is again excluded from #Senegal’s 2024 presidential race could lead to violence.
— ISS (@issafrica) June 23, 2023
ISS Today by Paulin Maurice Toupane and Aïssatou Kanté on the national dialogue https://t.co/gGODz0MiTt pic.twitter.com/PZ0m5u0iRJ
According to Gilles Yabi, founder of the West Africa think tank Wathi, whatever Sall and his supporters say now, the president repeatedly promised not to run a third time.
What is changing the situation is the unrest and the authorities' response to it, he told RFI English.
"Dozens of people have been arrested among the protesters, and it is a way to break some of the core members of the opposition," Yabi said.
Source of tension
Violent protests erupted in the usually peaceful country after Sonko was arrested in late May.
Since the prominent opposition leader was sentenced for "corrupting youth" on 1 June, an opposition coalition has repeatedly called for his release, with no luck so far.
Sonko's future remains unclear for now, but it seems likely that he won't be able to run in the 2024 presidential election.
His supporters are expected to protest again if Sall announces his intention to run for another term.
"When a government creates condition for violence, generally what happens is violence," Yabi said. "If we had to list the sources of tension, the issue of Macky Sall's candidacy certainly comes first."
