Senegal heads to the polls on Sunday after weeks of chaos, violence and uncertainty prompted fears that democracy had been fatally undermined in one of west Africa’s most stable countries.
Analysts say the presidential election is the most wide open in Senegal since it secured independence from France more than 60 years ago.
Voting day comes only seven weeks after the president, Macky Sall, abruptly cancelled the election, compromising Senegal’s reputation as one of Africa’s model democracies.
Faced with protests that have left four people dead and hundreds in jail, Sall was forced to backtrack on what critics believe was an attempt to cling on to power.
Experts say the contest is likely to be a straight fight between Amadou Ba, the man Sall has picked as his replacement, and Bassirou Diomaye Faye, a leading opposition candidate who was released from prison only a few days ago.
Olayinka Ajala, a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at Leeds Beckett University, believes Ba might shade it, largely because he has the apparatus of the state behind him.
“But really, it’s too close to call,” said Ajala.
However, Pat Thaker, the editorial director at Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), believes Faye has the highest chance of winning, mainly because he has been anointed by the charismatic Ousmane Sonko, also just released from jail, but who cannot contest the election after being barred from standing.
Sonko and his brand of anti-establishment, anti-corruption politics have cultivated a sizeable following in Senegal, one of the few African countries not to have suffered a coup since securing independence in 1960.
However, as the countdown to voting nears, Ba has come out fighting, telling his supporters last week that the “bandits” will not win.
Although most expect the election will signal an end to Senegal’s recent violence, some experts have warned of the potential for fresh tensions on Sunday, particularly if Ba prevails.
Neither, though, is likely to win in a landslide, with the result anticipated to go to a runoff.
The race has been described as “the most open” of the 12 presidential votes held under universal suffrage since Senegal gained independence from France, said Sidy Diop, the deputy editor of the country’s daily newspaper, Le Soleil.
Whoever wins will be tasked with steering Senegal out of its recent troubles along with managing revenues from recently discovered oil and gas reserves.
The finding of more than 1bn barrels of oil and 900bn cubic metres of gas has prompted hopes of future riches, a significant prospect in a country where the UN World Food Programme says 39% of people live in poverty.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has bolstered such hopes, predicting 8.8% economic growth this year because of the expected start of oil and gas production – more than double last year’s figure.
Senegal’s massive youth population will play a key role in determining Sall’s successor. According to Unicef, the average age in Senegal is 22 years, demographics that strongly favour Faye and Sonko. The latter’s passionate youth following has been built on his attacks on elites and the former colonial ruler France.
Nearly a third of young people in the country are out of work, and many have set their sights on getting to Europe or America to try to improve their prospects.
Seven million Senegalese are due to vote on Sunday, with 18 men and one woman on the ballot.
Although the only female presidential candidate has little chance of winning, activists say the presence of Anta Babacar Ngom, a 40-year-old business executive, is helping to advance long-running campaigns to achieve gender equality in the country.
