With inflation tumbling, interest rates held for successive months and almost every London borough seeing house prices fall last year, will 2024 be the year buyers flood back into the London housing market?
Or will the stagnant economy, ongoing global unrest and the looming presence of a general election at home keep their foot on the throat of a housing market already subdued by Brexit, Covid and the cost-of-living crisis?
If you want to move but don't have an intense motivation or urgent deadline, it can be hard to know what the best strategy is this year. So we've asked seven experts for their advice on when and how to sell a home in 2024.
Get busy under Rishi
Peter Wetherell, executive chairman of Mayfair estate agent Wetherell, predicts a peak in house-market activity at the start of this year.
"The general election has the potential to play a significant role in the performance of the property market, especially in London," he says. "Because of the uncertainty that a potential change of government brings, I think there will be a surge in deals during the first four to five months of 2024 as discerning buyers seek to buy early and de-risk their transaction from the election process."
A new government could introduce policies hitting buyers in the pocket and reducing appetite for purchases, he warns.
But Wetherell adds: "If Labour does come to power, it has pledged to increase the number of new homes being built in both London and the rest of the UK, so we are likely to see measures to help increase delivery, which can only be a good thing for the property market next year.
"Not enough homes are currently being built in the UK capital and the rest of the UK, so any political party that comes to power that helps address this is a good thing.”
Bloom in spring
Matt Thompson, head of sales at estate agent Chestertons, says a third more offers were made for its properties in November 2023 than the same month a year earlier.
"A lot of this is driven by pent up demand and house-hunters feeling more confident following interest rates remaining at 5.25 per cent for the time being.
“With economists being slightly more positive about 2024’s market conditions, and some even predicting a potential decrease in interest rates, buyers could continue to feel more secure to continue their property search."
While sellers desperate to move on to pastures new should act now, others might do better to sit tight for a few months, Thompson adds.
“Those who are under no pressure to sell quickly, and who own a home in a particularly sought-after area of London, may wish to consider listing their property around the spring," he says. "Traditionally, this is the busiest time of year for the property market and could increase the seller’s chances of achieving the asking price.”
Wait for the weather
Liam Monaghan, managing director of buying agents London Central Portfolio, also advises buyers to avoid the temptation to put their properties on the market too soon.
"Avoid listing in the depths of winter when short, cold days put buyers off viewings — instead look for the spring bounce or the post-election boost that we always see when uncertainty ends and the apocalypse doesn't happen as feared."
Monaghan says demand is building up after a long lull in the market but sellers have to be clever to get the best value for their properties this year.
"Consider creative pricing strategies; go in low to get competition that has been lacking in the market recently. Dress your property and make it look its best, you have to be the most attractive proposition for a buyer. Could a professional help you set up the photos?
"Work from home space is now mandatory," he adds. "People look for two bedrooms plus an office space, rather than a three-bed house. Can you separate out an area and show how it can be used?"
Listen to the mood music
Tom Bill, head of UK residential research at estate agent Knight Frank, says there is a "window of opportunity" for sellers this year.
"The economy seems to be settling, inflation is under 4 per cent and mortgage rates are coming down. We've got some pent up demand as there was no uptick in the autumn."
Timing your run is critical and relies on picking up on the vibe, he adds.
"Market is sentiment driven and that changes quickly. Suddenly you get fear of missing out kicking in. We are seeing that already with an increase in offers made. There is clear light at the end of the tunnel. The only thing is when the government calls an election; keep an eye on the rift over immigration as once an election is called things tend to slow down. There will be uncertainty and people will have a reason not to move."
Bill says sellers in outer boroughs may have more property joy this year than those at the heart of the capital. "Affordability will continue to shape the market in terms of demand and prices. Those areas with lower prices will probably see more growth. Prime markets are probably more exposed to political risk."
Keep an eye on the goal
Verona Frankish, chief executive of fixed-fee agency YOPA, has plenty of positivity for potential sellers in 2024.
"Renewed economic positivity in the New Year, ably aided by some politically led giveaways as we near the general election, lines us up for a property landscape that will see greater enthusiasm and certainty leading to faster sale times and even a slight uptick in house prices next year."
She urges people to make decisions in line with their personal move goals.
"Since Covid, the length of time taken to go through the entire selling process has increased significantly, with an average of six months from listing to completion," says Frankish. "So manage your own expectations and stress levels. If you need to be living near a certain school in September, I'd be thinking about getting your house on the market in February.
"Also, to make it as painless as possible, look into some of the emerging ways of doing the legals in advance. Services now exist where you can collate everything from title deed numbers to washing machine warranties on an online portal to make you as sale-ready as can be in advance of even showing potential buyers the property."
Get the work done first
Jonathan Hopper, chief executive of buying agency Garrington Property Finders, says 2023 was a buyer’s market leading to some major discounts from asking price.
“No-one should expect the pendulum to suddenly swing back in favour of sellers in 2024," he warns. "Buyers remain highly price sensitive, and with the supply of homes for sale slowly picking up, many can afford to be picky. If you’re planning to sell a home in the capital in 2024, you’ll need to keep the asking price competitive and make your home stand out from the rest.
“The high cost of borrowing and building materials means that that project properties that require a lot of refurbishment work are proving a tough sell in the current market. If your home looks tired, it’s worth putting some time and effort into making it as presentable as possible before listing it for sale."
Hopper says getting property in its best condition should be prioritised above rushing it on to the market.
“Few expect the Bank of England to cut interest rates quickly, but as mortgages get cheaper, home ownership will steadily become more affordable. So even if you miss the January jump in buyer enquiries, putting a well-priced and well-presented home on the market in spring will be no bad thing."
Know your local market
Jeremy Leaf, principal at estate agent Jeremy Leaf & Co, says buyer activity increased steadily towards the end of 2023 but adds that demand is always localised.
"Activity will increase in 2024," he says. "It is thousands of micro markets, based on schools, transport links and other factors. Know your market and what will work when."
Leaf dismisses suggestions that macro events will overwhelmingly determine house prices.
"People are not scared of Labour housing policies," he says. "Some will wait to see what is in the Budget and for the brighter weather — unless you have a dingy north-facing home that you think will look better in January! Some will discuss over Christmas and list in the New Year."
He adds: "Buyers will push the boat out for a long-term investment, where they have kids in a school or a key role in a community. Three and four bedroom 1930s family homes tend to sell the best. One-bed flats in city centres with lots of similar properties will be easy to buy but harder to sell on."
