As concerns grow about a Russian nuclear attack, Kiwi minister is to tell conference the world must cut its arsenals and turn to disarmament
As nations gather in New York to yet again try to rid the world of nuclear weapons through the 1970 Non-Proliferation Treaty, one could be forgiven for a sense of pessimism.
The latest five-yearly review conference was initially meant to take place in 2020, but faced a two-year delay due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Concern about the risk of inaction has only grown more profound since then, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparking concerns another nuclear attack is more likely than ever.
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in June warned the war could lead other countries to develop their own arsenals, while on the eve of the treaty conference, former UN secretary-general Ban Ki-moon delivered his own warning about “a frightening fatalism” in the face of an existential threat which could be greater than climate change.
“For more than 75 years, humanity has lived in the shadow of the nuclear bomb. We have gotten used to this danger. We shouldn’t,” Ban wrote in a piece for Foreign Policy.
“Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and his threats to use nuclear weapons against any country that might intervene mean the risk of nuclear devastation is higher than at any time since the end of the Cold War.”
It is a gloomy assessment shared by Disarmament Minister Phil Twyford, who is in New York this week to take part in the conference and push for meaningful action.
Speaking to Newsroom ahead of his visit, Twyford said the five nuclear weapon states who had signed up to the treaty had “utterly failed to deliver on the commitments” made to ultimately eliminate their nuclear stockpiles.
“Right now, with the war in Ukraine, growing geopolitical rivalries and the nuclear weapon states investing massively in modernising their arsenals, the world has become a much more dangerous place.”
"What the recent months have exposed is to have someone like Vladimir Putin, or for that matter a re-elected Donald Trump, having their finger on the nuclear button, it's a scary prospect.” – Phil Twyford
Vladimir Putin’s invasion had in fact undermined the theory of nuclear deterrence, he said, with Nato’s nuclear arsenal doing nothing to stop the operation, and Russia’s own reserves in turn failing to deter the West from arming and supporting Ukraine.
“But I think what the recent months have exposed is to have someone like Vladimir Putin, or for that matter a re-elected Donald Trump, having their finger on the nuclear button, it's a scary prospect.”
Nuclear weapon states had for years argued global instability meant it was not the right time for disarmament - a “completely circular and self-serving argument” which acted as a barrier to making the world a more stable place.
Despite similar concerns from non-nuclear nations at previous conferences, progress has been fleeting: a 64-point action plan agreed at the 2010 event remains largely unfulfilled more than a decade on.
But Twyford said there were grounds for some optimism, with the ever-increasing levels of risk meaning the only sensible response was to invest more in multilateralism and in international treaties, rather than becoming more militarised.
“The Europeans need to be convinced…and Nato needs to be convinced that the world doesn't have a problem with conventional military, collective defence, but a new nuclear arms races, that’s a whole other thing, and the risk of catastrophe is so total, that we can't turn our eyes away from it, we have to deal with it.”
The treaty had also been a success in some areas, with only four other countries having acquired nuclear weapons in the 52 years since it was signed, while the number of nuclear warheads had dropped from 63,000 at the height of the Cold War to fewer than 14,000.
With Russia a signatory to the treaty and the review conference based on consensus, any meaningful statements related to the Ukraine invasion are all but impossible.
But while New Zealand ministers and officials have boycotted other meetings in which Moscow has participated, Twyford said he had no intention of staging a walkout if or when Russia’s representative spoke.
“I'm going to this meeting…leading the New Zealand delegation because I want to see an outcome on nuclear disarmament, and it's not in our interests to see that objective derailed by a fight over language on Ukraine.
“Of course, Ukraine is an outrageous breach of international law, and the nuclear threats that Putin has made make it even worse, but I want to see agreement on disarmament, in the interests of the whole planet.”
The participation of China adds another layer of complexity, with Beijing reportedly planning to argue the trilateral Aukus security deal between Australia, the United States and the United Kingdom breaches the treaty due to plans to help Australia develop nuclear-powered submarines.
However, Twyford accused China of “politicising the issue” and said issues related to nuclear propulsion needed to be addressed through the International Atomic Energy Agency, rather than the treaty process.
