A decision on self-isolation for returning Kiwis will be made at Monday’s Cabinet meeting. Ministers received advice late on Sunday, as the justification for returnees having to self-isolate has come to an end, writes political editor Jo Moir.
Analysis: It will be a different Parliament sitting in Wellington this week as MPs try out the new hybrid system for the first time since Omicron’s arrival in the country.
While some MPs will still sit in the House as usual, others will be beamed in from home and take part in debate via screens on the chamber floor.
It’s just a taste of what is ahead as the country wraps its head around phase three and tens of thousands of daily cases.
The move to the highest setting of the red traffic light means close contacts are a thing of the past and as the health system tries to cope with nearly 15,000 cases a day on Sunday alone, only those who live in the same household as a positive case are now required to stay home and isolate.
That transition has called into question the need for negative-tested, double-vaccinated Kiwis returning from Australia to self-isolate on arrival for seven days.
The door to Australia will swing open again on Monday for the first time since the trans-Tasman bubble officially popped in July after just 95 days of travel between the two countries.
For now, those Kiwis returning home will need to undergo self-isolation, but Newsroom understands that could change before they’ve even completed their seven days.
Certainly, the chances of any self-isolation being required by March 13 when the gates open to Kiwis travelling home from the rest of the world are next to none.
With cases likely to tip over 15,000 on Monday, there is really no justification for not letting Kiwis return home and simply take a rapid antigen test and monitor for symptoms.
Director General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield provided advice to the Government last week pointing out the health risk is higher in the community compared with those bringing the virus in across the border.
But it is Sir David Skegg’s Covid-19 advisory group that the Cabinet was waiting to hear from, and it is that advice that will determine the next steps.
The advice arrived late on Sunday and Cabinet will decide on the issue when it meets on Monday.
National’s leader Christopher Luxon has renewed calls to immediately end self-isolation and open the border to Kiwis abroad, and quickly follow suit for vaccinated travellers wanting to visit for a holiday or business trip.
ACT'S David Seymour says MIQ should be scrapped altogether and travellers coming to New Zealand should be treated like anyone else in the community.
Newsroom understands the March 13 date for opening to Kiwis from other countries isn’t likely to change, given it is just two weeks away, but mounting public and political pressure could move that also.
The dates for opening to other visa holders and vaccinated travellers later in the year are constantly under review and the Prime Minister has already indicated those could be brought forward depending on when the country comes through the peak of Omicron.
The rapid pace at which things are changing is evident in that New Zealanders only spent nine days in phase two of the red traffic light system before shifting to phase three on Friday.
Ardern has maintained the decisions at the border have been guided by health advice and not putting the health system under additional pressure at a time when community cases are ramping up.
But that is increasingly having to be balanced alongside public and political pressure to let Kiwis return home at a time when the risk they pose is no more than anyone else already living here.
With cases likely to tip over 15,000 on Monday, there is really no justification for not letting Kiwis return home and simply take a rapid antigen test and monitor for symptoms.
There has been speculation the self-isolation requirements could initially be eased to, say, five or three days for returnees, before being scrapped completely.
But that sort of staged approach would have made more sense if daily cases had trickled along in the low thousands for a longer period.
The quick switch to phase three and the rate in which cases are climbing means there would be little rationale for that now and the only decision for the Cabinet is when self-isolation for Kiwis returning will be scrapped completely.
Once that decision is made, pressure will increasingly mount in coming months for other travellers to be let in ahead of the scheduled timeline.
Much of that relies on flight availability and airlines’ ability to ramp up and connect flights.
While the Omicron wave will take freedoms away from people in the months to come as more people get sick and stay home riding it out, the ability to jump on a flight and cross the ditch will once again be the norm.
Some overseas travel routes currently involve transit times of 60 hours or more.
For Air New Zealand, trans-Tasman demand would ramp up quickly once self-isolation rules are dropped but with so many flights already half-empty there’s plenty of capacity already.
Flights are also predominantly being booked for the Easter holiday period, which would just mean putting more on in April, which allows plenty of time to scale up and bring on more staff.
While many will jump at the opportunity to come home and be reunited with family and friends or take business trips that have been delayed for years, there is still a confidence problem to overcome.
Those who have been burnt in the past with false starts due to Omicron will no doubt wait to see the system working before committing.
New Zealanders who have made Australia home have always relied on being able to return, if necessary, at short notice.
For the best part of two years, that hasn’t been the case.
While the Omicron wave will take freedoms away from people in the months to come as more people get sick and stay home riding it out, the ability to jump on a flight and cross the ditch will once again be the norm.
