As winter eases across Europe, more Australian troops are preparing to depart the tropical climes of Darwin to train Ukrainian soldiers to fight.
As part of the second rotation of Australian Defence Force (ADF) personnel in Operation Kudu, 5th Battalion Royal Australian Regiment soldiers will join soldiers from several other nations to train Ukrainians to fight in the brutal war against Russia, now in its second year.
They will be contributing to Operation Interflex, a British-led mission which has the ambitious goal of training 20,000 Ukrainian troops this year, some of whom have no combat experience and have never fired a weapon.
Australian National University professor John Blaxland, an expert on international intelligence and security, said Operation Kudu, while important, needed to be put in context.
"Australia's contribution is significant. But it needs to be kept in perspective," he said.
"We are one of a number of contributing nations, and our contribution is a relatively small one."
With the war in its second year, Mr Blaxland — a former Australian Army officer — said Australia's support for the Ukrainian resistance was creating a conundrum for the government.
In its military support to Ukraine, Australia has provided Bushmaster vehicles, howitzers, ammunition, supplies and — most significantly — training of troops.
Mr Blaxland said that support risked stretching Australia's defence capability at home.
"We have a boutique defence force that is already actually challenged to meet its operational requirements in terms of preparing forces, training, and deploying on contingencies in Australia and around the region," he said.
Mr Blaxland said his main concern was that global support would not be enough for Ukraine to win the war against Russia.
"We need to be thinking strategically about how we help Ukraine get to a point, an inflection point, where their future is secured, where they may not get everything they want," he said.
"But where Russia is contained, where Russia's ambitions are thwarted, but not necessarily completely defeated."
Australian troops making 'very noticeable' contribution
Darwin-based Ukrainian-Australian Andrew Renkas has been teaching ADF soldiers basic Ukrainian language skills before they leave for the UK.
He said his compatriots back in Ukraine remained resolute in their determination to win the war against Russia more than a year after the conflict began.
"We all stand up, and we regroup, and we involve lots of volunteering works," he said.
"The people are sad, but they are more organised, and they know what [they need] to do."
One Ukrainian soldier currently being trained in the UK, who cannot be named for security reasons, said Australian troops were making a "very noticeable" contribution to the war effort, and he was grateful.
The major leading the ADF contingent, who also cannot be named for security reasons, is helping to instruct people in combat, trench warfare and other basic infantry warfare.
He said training up to 300 Ukrainians over five weeks was a significant responsibility for his unit.
"The opportunity to directly contribute to the Ukrainian military and their ability to defend their homeland is something that everyone here is passionate about," he said.
The major said that by the end of the year, Australian troops would have helped train 1,200 Ukrainians for battle.
What next for Australia's war support?
Beyond Operation Kudu, the federal government has not committed to providing further personnel support for Ukraine.
When asked if the government had plans to increase or decrease military support for Ukraine, a spokesperson for Defence Minister Richard Marles said: "Australia will stand with Ukraine for the duration of this conflict so that Ukraine is in a position to determine the outcome of this conflict on its terms".
The spokesperson did not say whether Operation Kudu would be extended beyond 2023.
"The Australian government is committed to delivering on its current contribution to Ukraine," the spokesperson said.
"The government will continue to review its response options in relation to the evolving situation in Ukraine."
