Data from the 2021 Census has revealed how towns and cities in south east Wales are growing rapidly at the same time as other areas of the nation see a decline in population. It reveals that the country is growing more slowly than had previously been thought, but people are divided over exactly why that might be.
Newport is the fastest growing city in Wales, with a 9.5% increase in population from 2011, according to the data from the Census, which is carried out every 10 years and is the most accurate way of tracking population changes across the UK. Cardiff, the Vale of Glamorgan and Bridgend also saw significant rises.
However, many areas of Wales recorded declines in population, led by parts of the south Wales Valleys, Swansea, and the Welsh-language heartlands of Ceredigion, Gwynedd, Anglesey and Conwy. Wales' overall growth in population in the 10 years leading to 2021 was at a far slower rate than in England. You can get more Welsh news and other story updates straight to your inbox by subscribing to our newsletters here.
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The data will have significant implications for funding for Wales and for the local authorities with lower populations. Several councils including Swansea, Blaenau Gwent and Gwynedd serve smaller populations than had previously been thought. Stats Wales had estimated Swansea's population in 2020 as being 246,563 but the Census shows it is just 238,500. You can read the full breakdown of the stats by clicking here.
The data has attracted plenty of reaction. David Hughes highlighted the ongoing second home crisis and how it was having a major detrimental impact on people in Wales. He said: "43,000 pensioners from England, scattered around the coast". It was a seemingly popular trail of thought shared by others who also expressed concern at the large numbers of people choosing to live in Wales to retire.
Others questioned the figures and argued that the rising population was not reflected in how the country was progressing. Richard Thwaite said: "Hardly any increase in population but waiting lists in the NHS are higher than ever, can't get access to dentists or doctors, the M4 is gridlocked everyday etc. Who've you have to thank for this? The bumbling Welsh Assembly". Some others also pointed fingers of blame at the Welsh Government.
Mark Davies believed the outcome was inevitable. He said "Hardly surprising, we’ve had BREXIT, COVID while most GPs and Drs would rather work in England. There’s been no investment in our road and rail networks, whilst the Welsh Government has blocked M4 improvements and spent the money on traffic calming and cycle lanes - why (unless you're on benefits) would you want to come to Wales?"
Rob Davis concurred: "Poor bus service in lots of areas, constant road problems and speed restrictions, congestions etc as well as poor decent job opportunities, so hardly a shock and house prices way out of touch with the poor wages being offered. You could buy a farm in France with a vineyard and acres of ground for what a terraced house is to buy."
Other Welsh people were left concerned what the data meant for emergency services. Paul Robinson said: "Growing slower than expected but our services are still being overrun", while Dylan Roberts even questioned if enough investment was being made, Ant Kitcher added: "Underfunded services, understaffed. Yet the Senedd want to roll out a Universal Income scheme for everyone in Wales. If we can afford that, then why can’t we afford to increase funding for public services?"
Within the data, increases in population were found to be linked to towns and cities on the M4 corridor in south east Wales, whereas other areas like the valleys were seeing their numbers fall.
Newport saw the biggest population increase but some users were quick to point out it wasn't necessarily a blessing. One commenter said: "Newport may have a larger population, but certainly not for the better. I’m Newport born and bred. Unfortunately, over the last 20 years it has become really down trodden, empty shops, rough sleepers and known for drugs. After a certain time of day, you really don’t want to be in the town. I’m sorry for the part of the Newport population who wants to have pride in there town.
Howell Morgan highlighted "At a glance it seems the nearer to England then population goes up, and the remoter to England the population goes down. There are fundamental issues facing WAG about impacts on public services/funding and why we need 22 LAs (local authorities), some of which have very small populations and income direct from ratepayers. I have no doubt Drakeford and his 'gang' will do nothing and rely on the Treasury to 'bankroll' public expenditure. Gawd helpus!!!"
'Trailorboy' added: "Over the last decade deaths in Wales exceeded Births by 11,000 - far less kids being born in Wales these days. The population rise is driven by immigration, primarily from England - immigration was up 55,000 over the last decade. In some areas like Newport the immigration is an exonomic positive and was primarily younger working age people between 25-35, but in rural areas, where health resources are more stretched, it is predominantly older."
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