The New South Wales state election on Saturday is shaping up as the closest in 16 years. The Coalition government, already in minority, is fighting to hold on after a series of scandals, high-profile resignations and a creaking economy.
It faces threats on a number of fronts: from Labor in Sydney’s west and in the south of the state; and from a clutch of teal and independent candidates in the city’s east.
Labor, on the other hand, faces an uncertain path to victory. The opposition needs to pick up at least nine seats to form a majority government, and will need to produce a significant swing to get there. Its leader, Chris Minns, also holds one of the narrowest margins in NSW and faces a tricky challenge from high-profile independent Troy Stolz.
It will make for fascinating viewing when the votes start to roll in on Saturday night.
Here are the seats to watch.
Penrith
Held by the former deputy Liberal leader Stuart Ayres on a wafer-thin 0.6% margin, the seat, on the edge of Sydney’s west, is key to Labor’s chances of winning government. Although Penrith was once part of Labor’s heartland, the party lost it during a 2010 byelection, suffering a mammoth 25.7% swing before the 2011 election which saw it swept from government. Saving the seat is one of the Coalition’s most pressing concerns; the premier, Dominic Perrottet, has made a series of visits to the electorate including a rally on Sunday.
East Hills
Another former Labor stronghold in Sydney’s west, East Hills has been a target for the party at the last two elections without ever crossing over into the red column. It is now held by a 0.1% margin, thanks both to boundary changes and its past campaign focus, making it another must win for the opposition, who will hope its focus on cost-of-living pressures will resonate.
Murray
Held by former Shooters party MP turned independent Helen Dalton on a 2.8% margin, Murray shapes as a three-cornered contest between the incumbent, the party she rejected and the Nationals, who held the seat before 2019. Dalton spectacularly fell out with the Shooters over water issues in March last year, and has since had a series of run-ins with the party’s leader, Robert Borsak. In a sign of the ill will between the two, the Shooters have made the unprecedented decision to give preferences to the Nationals in the seat. If the Nationals can win the seat – and two others held by Shooters-turned independents in Barwon and Orange – it will seriously complicate the electoral map for Labor.
Balmain
The once-safe Labor seat fell to the Greens in 2011 at the defeat of the Keneally government. Retiring MP Jamie Parker boosted the party’s margin in the seat to 10% at the last election – a comfortable margin the new Greens candidate, Kobi Shetty, hopes to retain as she takes on fellow local councillor and Labor candidate Philippa Scott. The Greens have never had to defend a lower house seat after the retirement of an incumbent, something Labor hopes will help it win the seat back.
Lane Cove
Climate 200-backed independent Victoria Davidson is hoping to unseat planning minister and senior Liberal Anthony Roberts, who holds the seat on a very safe 14.7% margin. Polling in the lead-up to the election has the Coalition concerned about the seat, but Lane Cove is an electorate in two parts: wealthy areas in the east and young families and high rises around Chatswood and Gladesville.
Wollondilly
Stretching from Sydney’s south-west fringe to the southern highlands, Wollondilly is the only regional seat being targeted by an independent with Climate 200 backing. This will be Judy Hannan’s second shot at Macquarie St after narrowly losing to Liberal Nathaniel Smith in 2019. He now holds it on a 6% margin. About half of the 3,000 sq km electorate is taken up by the Warragamba Dam catchment area and some of Sydney’s southern dams.
Kogarah
It is perhaps the only Labor seat at any risk of flipping this election, and it’s held by the opposition leader, Chris Minns, who is fighting to hold his own super-marginal seat while also attempting to deliver a Labor victory for the state. Minns was elected to the seat in 2015 before suffering a 5% swing against him in 2019. A redistribution means his margin has been reduced further to 0.1%, but his profile as party leader is expected to have boosted his recognition. Challenging him are pokies whistleblower Troy Stolz, who has campaigned against Labor’s refusal to back gambling reforms including the cashless gaming card. Sydney city councillor Craig Chung is the Liberal candidate.
Heathcote
Heathcote is one of two seats held by the Liberals but which became notionally Labor after a redistribution. Stretching from southern Sydney to the northern parts of the Illawarra, it is now on a 1.7% Labor margin. Liberal incumbent Lee Evans has held the seat since 2011, but will have to contend with a new batch of voters – particularly north of Wollongong – traditionally tied to Labor and the Greens.
Leppington
A brand new seat on Sydney’s south-west fringe which has no incumbent MP. Both parties have campaigned heavily for the seat, which is notionally Labor’s on a slim 1.7% margin. Though made up of a mishmash of suburbs from seven different seats, it’s an area where cost-of-living pressures, development and infrastructure are all key issues. Another must-win for Labor.
Parramatta
Parramatta, in the heart of Sydney’s west, was the jewel in the crown for the Coalition as it swept to power in 2011 and 12 years later it looks like it may be a harbinger of a return to opposition. A redistribution pushed the margin down to 6.5%, which, along with the retirement of longtime MP Geoff Lee, has made it a serious risk of returning to the red column despite major infrastructure investments made under the Coalition.
Goulburn
One of two seats in the state’s south where the Coalition is in trouble. Held by the junior minister Wendy Tuckerman on a 3.1% margin, it would mark a major coup for Labor, which has not held it since 1962. A visit from Perrottet in the final week of the campaign suggests that all is not well in the seat for the Coalition.
South Coast
The other southern seat where Perrottet stopped on his final week sand-bagging tour, South Coast is notionally safe for the Coalition on a 10.6% margin. But the retirement of long-serving incumbent Shelley Hancock after two decades, along with a bitter preselection contest has put it in the hopeful category for Labor. It could also be helped by Greens preferences. The minor party only won 13.7% of the vote in 2019, but their candidate, Amanda Findley, was popularly elected mayor of Shoalhaven council in 2021 and the minor party believes it is in with a shot.
Wakehurst
Northern beaches independent mayor Michael Regan is challenging the new Liberal candidate, Toby Williams, after the retirement of longstanding Liberal health minister Brad Hazzard. Held on a massive 21.9% margin, issues include the buses, Wakehurst Parkway, development, Pep 11, gambling and cost of living.
