Everton are improving under Sean Dyche.
They pose more of a threat going forwards - having far more touches in and around the opposition box in his games so far. They are creating more, and better chances - as shown by the expected goals (xG) stats of recent games. They are more dangerous from attacking set pieces and have already shown - twice - they can protect a lead when they find the goals that are proving so elusive.
The question for me, now, isn’t whether Everton are making progress. It’s whether they can make enough progress at a quick enough rate to avoid relegation. Dyche’s Blues are in a race against both time and the fixture list.
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I’ve spent days contemplating the Arsenal performance and am still undecided on my conclusions. For 40 minutes Everton competed well with the team at the top of the Premier League. Then calamity hit and the game was over before the players had made it to the tunnel for the half time interval. There was, though, a lot to take heart from the events before Bukayo Saka’s brilliant opener.
For Dyche, there is improvement on every level - in the underlying stats, which he is aware of but does not rely on religiously, in the facts of chances created and the points already won under his rule, and in the ‘feel’ and look of the performances - criteria he trusts most. He accepts points are the most important barometer of success and Everton need more of them. They are picking up more under him.
Speaking to reporters including myself at Finch Farm on Friday, Dyche explained his position on his opening weeks: “We can find a way of operating with this group. Arsenal was not a lucky win, it was a win by design [the 1-0 home win in his first game]. My job is to look at the bigger picture and when I got here it was one point from the last five games, five points from the previous nine. Now it’s six points in the first five.
"It doesn’t seem like a lot but it is when you’ve been in that form. If you’re getting five points from 10 games and then six points from five that is a big shift, a factual shift. The work is not done but factually there is progress. Distance covered, more efforts on goal, more chances, more crosses – factual progress. It still doesn’t guarantee you anything but it does increase your chances of winning. It is a process.”
It is hard to argue with that evaluation. It is also hard to escape the concern inspired by the reappearance of worrisome traits that have undermined the season so far and were again evident during a spineless second half at Arsenal.
Dyche wants to ‘eradicate’ mistakes and find solutions to the goalscoring problems this Everton side has. He shouldn’t need to be creative - the answers should have been provided to him over a January transfer window Everton had months to prepare for and just one essential priority. He dismissed a question about that failure as not being relevant ahead of the match with Nottingham Forest. The matter is in fact hugely relevant to him and his efforts to chart a course for top flight survival - though he would be right if his argument was that he should not be called on to answer to a problem he is not accountable for.
Everton do need goals though. And they cannot afford to capitulate as they did against Arsenal. Dyche needs solutions to both issues as soon as possible. Because for all the clear improvement brought about by his reign, Everton now have 13 games to save themselves. With Chelsea, Tottenham Hotspur and Manchester United fast approaching the next two games - Forest away and Brentford at home - represent crucial opportunities to get much-needed points before that tough run. This week will define Everton’s relegation battle.
If Dyche can build on the positive elements of the Arsenal and Aston Villa defeats then anything is possible. If he can not, and the missed opportunities of the promising 40 minute spells in each of those games are simply the ceiling of what this squad can achieve in its current state, then the Blues are in trouble. As Dyche fights to build on the improvements he has already secured, the relegation fight will be determined by which Everton turn up for the next two games - that of the first 40 minutes against Arsenal or the one on display during the painful 50 minutes that followed.
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