“This is gonna hurt.”
“Promises, promises.”
They don’t have to enjoy it like Nebula, but Seahawks fans should probably prepare themselves for a bit of pain and domination this evening. Winners of six straight, the NFC West super-rival 49ers are in town tonight with a chance to clinch the division and put Seattle’s postseason ambitions on the ropes.
Even with a serious question mark going on at QB, the Niners are a far superior football team right now. After all, they have the league’s top scoring defense this season and they held Seattle’s offense scoreless the last time they met. It doesn’t help that this Seahawks team is struggling in a bad way coming into Week 15.
Here are three things to know before tonight’s matchup.
Geno Smith's most important game yet
This will be the most important night of the 2022 season for Geno Smith, who’s been in a rut the last few games. Smith admitted earlier this week that he’s been too aggressive of late. That’s certainly the case on tape – Smith is simply trying to do too much, which has resulted in a rash of bad-look fumbles and poor-decision interceptions.
Depending on how things go in the trenches, Smith might not even get a chance to be over-aggressive tonight. In the Week 2 meeting Smith was technically only sacked twice but he was under constant pressure throughout the game, keeping a very tight lid on his production.
Smith will be negotiating a QB1 contract this offseason, either with Seattle or another team. Actually leading the Seahawks to a win tonight seems like a high bar, but it would help his case a great deal to prove he can cut back on the turnovers and still produce against an elite defense.
Abe Lucas, Charles Cross under a microscope
Seattle’s rookie offensive tackles are also in for an important test. While it’s rare for first-year linemen to play as well as they have, Lucas and Cross are declining in pass protection lately and now they’re about to get thrown directly into the fire.
This evening they’ll face the most disruptive edge defender in the NFL this year: Nick Bosa – who Richard Sherman believes should win Defensive Player of the Year. Back in Week 2, he was the definition of a game-breaker. Bosa crushed this offensive line to the tune of two sacks, five quarterback hits and several more pressures.
Stopping Bosa will require a team effort no matter where he’s lined up. If they can contain him, it’ll make Geno Smith’s job a lot easier. Bosa has 14.5 sacks this season but no other Niners defender has more than four.
Stop the run or die
The Seahawks got into this situation because they haven’t defended the run well. With the exception of a four-game stretch in the middle of the year, this has been arguably the worst run defense in the league.
It’s true that Seattle could use a Jalen Carter type guy in the middle of their line, but the run defense has been so bad so often that it’s more of a reflection on Pete Carroll’s staff rather than the personnel. We wouldn’t presume to tell anybody how to fit the run, but it’s extremely unusual for a team to perform this poorly against it in so many games in one season, especially against some awful rushing teams.
The Niners are of course one of the league’s best. In Week 2 it was Deebo Samuel and Jeff Wilson gashing them on the ground. This week Samuel is out with an injury and Wilson has since been traded to the Dolphins. Sadly, the ball carrier hasn’t mattered for Seattle’s opponents this year. Good backs like Josh Jacobs and Cordarrelle Patterson have absolutely destroyed them, but even low-profile rushers like Chuba Hubbard have feasted.
Throw in the fact that Kyle Shanahan could scheme a quality run game with 11 random people out of the phone book and the Seahawks are headed for a buzzsaw and this side of the ball, as well.
If they can keep the Niners’ outside zone game quiet it will be a pleasant surprise and an encouraging sign. However, if they get rolled again for another 250+ yards and multiple touchdowns it’ll be the kind of thing that gets assistant coaches fired.
