SCOTTISH Government policies will “keep child poverty levels well below the rest of the UK”, new analysis has found.
However, the report by the Institute for Public Policy Research Scotland (IPPR Scotland) warned that “without urgent investment” more than 210,000 Scottish children will be “trapped in poverty” by 2030.
First Minister John Swinney has described eradicating child poverty as the “single most important objective” of the Scottish Government.
It comes as data is set to be released showing if Scotland has met or missed its interim child poverty targets.
Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville acknowledged the report's findings, adding that Scotland's "efforts are being undermined by the social security policies of the UK Government".
Dave Hawkey, senior research fellow at IPPR Scotland, wrote in the report: “We anticipate Scottish social security policy will play an important role, and will keep child poverty levels well below the rest of the UK.
“But existing policies projected forward will still leave twice as many children in poverty as required by the target.”
Hawkey added that helping parents into “secure, well-paid work” would help reduce the number of children in poverty if successful, but added: “However, the inescapable conclusion of our analysis is that hitting the 2030 target will be nigh on impossible without additional fiscal commitments.
“The most direct route to achieving this in the near term would be to increase benefit payments to families in or at risk of poverty, with investment in social housing an important long term complement.”
The think tank added that the UK Government’s cuts to disability benefits are set to have an impact on attempts to reduce child poverty.
We told how Work and Pensions Secretary Liz Kendall announced a £5 billion package of welfare cuts, with a huge number of people now set to be denied the Personal Independence Payment (PIP).
“The precise consequences for Scotland are as yet unclear, given the reforms affect both Universal Credit (a UK benefit) and Personal Independence Payments (a benefit that has been replaced in Scotland by Adult Disability Payment),” the report reads.
“However, given the reforms are intended to reduce social security spending, it is hard to see them not filtering through to either reduced support in Scotland or greater pressure on the Scottish budget.”
The think tank added that increasing the take up of benefits could have an impact on child poverty rates, but warned: “As Universal Credit is a reserved benefit there are limits to how impactful devolved policy can be.”
Following publication of the report, Hawkey said: “Scotland is at a crossroads and must decide whether it is willing to take the necessary steps to eradicate child poverty – there is surely only one option.
“The social security system is an important safety net to catch families when hard times hit, but this is not its only role.
“Even when adults are working, many families need financial support to make ends meet. Child benefit and universal credit have a vital role to play, plugging a gap that the labour market cannot and ensuring that children have what they need to grow up healthy and secure.”
Adding that the Scottish Government is currently developing its next child poverty delivery plan up to 2030, he added: “It needs to set out the actions the Scottish government will take to reduce child poverty and the impact they will have.
“The evidence is clear: to meet Scotland’s legal child poverty target, Scotland must commit additional fiscal resource to our shared priority of giving every child in Scotland a good start in life”.
In response to the report, the Social Justice Secretary said the government is "absolutely committed" to meeting the 2030 child poverty target.
“Measures like the Scottish Child Payment which is forecast to benefit the families of over 330,000 children in 2025-26, are having a real impact – and the Joseph Rowntree Foundation has suggested that Scotland will be the only part of the UK to see child poverty fall," Somerville said.
“However we know there is more to do and our efforts are being undermined by the social security policies of the UK Government and policies like the two-child limit which is increasing poverty and hardship for many families.
“That is why in the coming financial year we will develop the systems necessary to effectively scrap the impact of the two-child cap in 2026 – which will lift thousands of children in Scotland out of poverty.”
