POLLING analysis of Scottish council by-elections paints a “very worrying” picture for Anas Sarwar’s Labour group, the SNP have said.
It comes after internal analysis conducted by the party, and shared with The National, showed support for the SNP climbing while Labour’s slides.
The analysis looked at council by-elections in wards where at least four of the five main parties ran both in the local elections in May 2022 and the by-election. It only compared wards where independent vote share remained stable, leaving a total of 19 since the 2022 vote.
The SNP analysis says that these 19 wards are “broadly geographically representative” of Scotland as a whole.
It states: “In May 2022, when the last council elections were held nationwide, the SNP was ahead of Labour by 21 points in the Westminster and Holyrood constituency vote.
“Despite this being a relative high point in SNP support, performance is now trending towards returning to that level. The gap between SNP performance in by-elections and the May 2022 performance has been steadily closing.
“Meanwhile, Labour support is down by 1% on average compared to 2022.
“In May 2022 Labour were on just 21-25% in polls. They are not routinely seeing dramatic ward level increases in vote share in by-elections, indicating that their vote is not clearly up. Indeed, since the General Election their vote share changes are worsening.”
An SNP spokesperson said that the polling figures “tell a very worrying story for Anas Sarwar”.
“The trends confirm recent polling showing that Labour are losing support left, right and centre – with a particular fall among older people,” they said.
Sarwar’s Scottish Labour group has struggled to detach itself from the unpopular decisions made by their UK party bosses in London.
The cut to the Winter Fuel Payment, which Chancellor Rachel Reeves brought in soon after gaining power, has become a totemic issue which Scottish Labour insiders blamed for twin by-election losses in Dundee in October.
An attempt to reverse the damage saw Sarwar U-turn on his previously vocal support for the Winter Fuel Payment cut in November. He now backs mitigating his own party’s cut and bringing in a universal payment north of the Border.
Scottish Labour deputy leader Jackie Baillie said her party was "working to earn voters’ trust and demonstrate that we can deliver the change in direction our country so badly needs".
“After 17 years of SNP failure, every institution in Scotland is weaker – from our NHS to our schools to our justice system," she added.
An SNP spokesperson said that Labour’s decline in the polls was “no wonder”.
"Labour have completely betrayed the trust of pensioners by taking away their Winter Fuel Payment,” they said. “While Labour in Scotland are standing up for Keir Starmer, the SNP are standing up for Scotland's pensioners by restoring a universal payment.
"If Labour MSPs seriously plan to vote against the Budget bill, then they will have to explain on the doorsteps why they tried to block support for Scotland's pensioners not once, not twice – but three times. “That's the difference that voting SNP makes, and be in no doubt – we will be making that difference clear to people on doorsteps the length and breadth of Scotland."
