Scottish Labour set for worst election since devolution, new poll shows

SCOTTISH Labour are set for the worst election result since devolution, according to a new poll.

The Norstat poll – commissioned for the Sunday Times – shows that just 18% of voters intend to back the party at the next Holyrood election in 2026.

This means that Scottish Labour would be tied with the Conservatives. Labour would lose four seats and the Scottish Tories would lose 13, leaving both parties with only 18 MSPs each.

Meanwhile, the SNP are projected to secure 55 MSPs while the Scottish Greens would win 10 seats – leading to a pro-independence majority in Holyrood.

Reform UK continue to see rising popularity in Scotland as the poll projects the party would gain 15 seats, while the LibDems would gain nine seats, taking them up to 13 MSPs.

It comes as the Scottish Labour party conference is set to take place next week in Glasgow, as the party gears up for the 2026 election.

The Norstat poll was carried out between February 11 and 14 and surveyed 1026 people.

It found that support for independence remains at 50-50 between Yes and No.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar (Image: Jane Barlow) The poll shows that John Swinney is more popular than Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar or Scottish Tories leader Russell Findlay.

While the First Minister is more popular than US president Donald Trump, Keir Starmer and Kemi Badenoch remain less popular.

The poll shows Reform UK peeling off votes from all parties – dampening Sarwar’s hopes of entering Bute House.

Nigel Farage’s party took 14% of the constituency vote, its highest ever showing in a Holyrood poll.

Polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice laid much of the blame for Scottish Labour’s decline on Starmer’s poor start in Downing Street and said that Reform UK was fracturing the Unionist vote.

Professor Sir John Curtice (Image: Colin Mearns) He said: “Anas Sarwar’s hopes of becoming Scotland’s next first minister are, it seems, fading fast.

“Holyrood could still find itself with a majority of pro-independence MSPs even though well under half of voters had backed a pro-independence party.

“Such an outcome would leave Labour’s hopes of putting Scotland’s constitutional debate to bed in tatters.”

Commenting on the results of the poll on Twitter/X, SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn said: "Labour are as unpopular as the Tories in Scotland.”

Labour are as unpopular as the Tories in Scotland.https://t.co/U71B7jxyGV

— Stephen Flynn MP (@StephenFlynnSNP) February 16, 2025

Commenting, Fulton MacGregor, SNP MSP for Coatbridge and Chryston, said the poll shows “support for Labour is imploding under Anas Sarwar’s leadership”.

He continued: “It’s hardly surprising given Labour’s track record at Westminster, the highlights of which include slashing the Winter Fuel Payment, adopting the two-child cap as their own policy, hiking National Insurance, betraying WASPI women, and sky-high energy prices.

SNP MSP Fulton MacGregor “Labour has shown that their election promises are nothing more than an empty ploy to win power – they cannot deliver in Government. Voters are now asking: why would that be any different in Scotland? “In opposition in Holyrood they even failed to back a budget that would deliver record funding for Scotland’s NHS and restore the Winter Fuel Payment that their own party cut.

MacGregor added: “While Mr Sarwar puts party before country, the SNP is putting Scotland’s interests first and looks forward to setting out a positive vision for our nation in 2026.”

Scottish Labour have been contacted for comment.