Success is not a concept Scottish Labour have been familiar with over the past 15 years.
They were replaced as Scotland’s main party by the SNP from 2007 and lost second place to Ruth Davidson’s Tories nine years later.
Anas Sarwar is Labour’s 10th leader in the devolved era. The SNP have had three.
May’s council election results, where Labour beat the Conservatives, were the first sign of progress for years. The post-election horse-trading has also fuelled the narrative of a party back on track.
Labour are running minority administrations in councils such as Fife, South Lanarkshire, Stirling and Edinburgh, despite not being the largest party.
In most cases, Labour have been installed thanks to the votes of pro-UK parties. The accusation of Tory “deals” is toxic, but also inaccurate. If the Tories want to support a Labour minority administration, they’re free to do so.
It only becomes problematic when Conservative policies are part of the equation.
Labour’s reliance on the pro-UK parties was born out of Sarwar’s ban on “formal coalitions” with the Tories and the SNP. With a ban in place, going it alone was the only credible option in many local authorities.
Sarwar’s ban was primarily aimed at Nicola Sturgeon’s party rather than Boris Johnson’s, as before the election Labour coalitions with the SNP were more commonplace.
It also reflects Labour’s short-term strategy of becoming the main opposition by winning back voters lost to the Conservatives.
However, Sarwar’s main challenge – winning the next Holyrood election by appealing to soft SNP voters – is made harder by the curb.
Without persuading a large chunk of SNP backers to lend their votes to Labour, Sarwar will forever be in the comfort zone of second place.
A ban sends out a signal to SNP voters that their current party of choice is dodgy and, by implication, not progressive. It is not a strategy likely to turn heads.
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This way of thinking may help Keir Starmer reach No10 by allowing him to say Labour doesn’t do deals with the SNP but it puts up obstacles to Sarwar becoming First Minister.
Labour and the SNP are parties on the centre-left, with many areas of commonality apart from the constitution.
Sarwar must recognise this reality if SNP voters are to take the long road back to a party they abandoned more than a decade ago.
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