THE case for Scottish independence has “never looked stronger” than after the financial crisis brought on by Liz Truss’s Tory government, an international politics expert has said.
Professor Simon Hix, the Stein Rokkan chair in comparative politics at the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence, said that the weakest argument for a split from the United Kingdom had “always” been economic.
However, he said that had “suddenly switched” in the wake of Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng’s “mini-budget”.
After Kwarteng pledged tax cuts for the rich funded by £45 billion of increased borrowing, the pound collapsed to its lowest ever level against the US dollar.
The International Monetary Fund made an extraordinary intervention calling on the Tories to “re-evaluate” their plans, and the Bank of England was forced to take emergency action to prevent pension funds collapsing.
The stark economic damage has been noted around the globe, with reports saying that the White House and nations across the European Union were concerned about the global impact of the Tory policies.
Hix, a fellow of the British Academy, said the news meant Scotland’s government seemed a “safe pairs of hands by comparison”.
The case for Scottish independence has never looked stronger. The weakest aspect of the case was always economic, but that has suddenly switched. @NicolaSturgeon and @_KateForbes seem safe pairs of hands by comparison to @trussliz and @KwasiKwarteng.
— Simon Hix (@simonjhix) September 29, 2022
He wrote on Twitter: “The case for Scottish independence has never looked stronger.
“The weakest aspect of the case was always economic, but that has suddenly switched. @NicolaSturgeon and @_KateForbes seem safe pairs of hands by comparison to @trussliz and @KwasiKwarteng.”
Forbes is currently on maternity leave, with Deputy First Minister John Swinney filling in for her in the Finance Secretary role.
Hix may be open to the idea of an independent Scotland, having tweeted previously in response to a post asking for the "top three benefits of Brexit": "1. Scottish independence; 2. Irish unification; 3. No Nigel Farage in the European Parliament."
The EUI professor's statement comes after a study from Professor John Doyle of Dublin City University found that the real fiscal gap with which an independent Wales might start life was just a fraction of official UK Government figures.
Figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) are often quoted as suggesting the deficit an independent Wales would incur on day one would be £13.5 billion.
However, Doyle concluded the fiscal gap – the difference between raised revenue and government expenditure – would actually be £2.6bn.
This is based on the 2019 estimate of total Welsh economic output at £77.5bn and would be equivalent to just under 3.4% of GDP.
Plaid Cymru head Adam Price said the research “debunks the argument that Wales is too small and too poor to thrive as an independent nation”.
In a “scene setter” published in June, the Scottish Government suggested that European nations could provide a better economic framework than the UK for Scotland after independence.
Titled Independence in the Modern World: Wealthier, Happier, Fairer: Why Not Scotland?, the document looked to "define the UK model and explain its enduring structural problems".
Speaking at the launch, First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said: "Why are neighbouring independent countries of Scotland’s size wealthier, happier and fairer than the UK?
"Why do they, and indeed other countries in north-west Europe regardless of size, frequently out-perform the UK across a range of key measures that determine well-being?
"And, fundamentally, if these countries can be successful, why not an independent Scotland, given the abundance of talent, resources and natural advantages we possess?"
