As the federal election race enters the final straight, the prime minister’s dismal pitch for power boils down to this: it’s better the devil you know.
This is a telling concession. Three weeks out from the ballot Scott Morrison can’t run on character in the face of a constant stream of unsolicited assessments from friends and colleagues from Malcolm to Barnaby, Gladys to Connie.
Nor does his judgment bear close scrutiny. From the Hawaiian hideaway to the vaccine strollout, backing Clive Palmer over Mark McGowan on border closures, to his “captain’s pick” to install a bigot as the Warringah candidate: there is no leadership record to play.
Instead, the PM is left perched at the bar of the political rogue’s last-chance hotel ranting at a rapidly emptying room: I know you don’t like me but look at the other guy!
Granted, it must be liberating to accept you are the political devil: just strap on the hi-vis and get about your infernal work. People expect you to say and do anything to win, so you will. People know you won’t take responsibility, so you won’t. People know you will throw money at them to hold on to power, so how much do they want?
It’s worth noting the original “better the devil you know” is only half of a longer adage that hails all the way back to the 13th century and another Scot, Edward Bruce (brother of the more famous Robert).
As Edward was rampaging through a famine-plagued Ireland to establish a bulwark against the invading English, he invoked the justification that something bad but known is better than something unknown. An uncertain future, left without definition, is worse than the monster in front of you.
It speaks to an enduring political truth: that change is not our preferred state. The status quo needs to be really bad for us to take the plunge – which is why Morrison is campaigning against the unknown and doing all he can to make that scary.
This is where Labor’s strategy of containing its policy ambitions, minimising points of conflict and revealing its leader late in the political cycle leaves it exposed to the litany of scare campaigns being prosecuted by Morrison government.
There is the economy fear campaign: one of parliament’s longest-serving MPs is way too inexperienced to be trusted with the national accounts. There is the China fear campaign: that Labor are the Manchurian candidates. There are reheated scare campaigns from elections past: that Labor is soft on boats; that Labor will kill the coal industry; that a vote for Labor is a vote for the Greens. There is even a niche scare imported from MAGA land: that women’s support will be overrun by transgender competitors.
The problem for Morrison is that after a term of government dominated by a pandemic and bookended by two climate catastrophes, the status quo feels as scary as any unknown future.
And that feeling is getting worse. As this week’s Essential Report shows, there has been a substantial deterioration since the beginning of the campaign in people who think the nation is heading in the right direction.
Tellingly, the only cohort of voters feeling comfortable and relaxed are older voters, with younger generations facing the squeeze of housing costs, work-life balance and flatlining wages. These are also the demographics whose vote is less likely to be locked in.
While the prime minister continues to maintain he doesn’t hold a hose, on his watch inflation and interest rates are rising while wages are flatlining; China’s influence is expanding in our region; the aged care and disability sectors are in disarray.
“Better the devil you know” has an even more pernicious subtext: this is as good as you can expect from government; don’t ask for more because you will only be let down.
And maybe it is here Morrison’s proposition does give voters an honest choice: for all its limitations the Labor agenda outlined by Anthony Albanese over the weekend is one of a government taking responsibility for the challenges we face: from energy transition to the role of women in society to the ageing population.
A separate question illustrates the extent to which the public has lost trust in the current government’s ability to deliver on the issues they feel strongest about.
On cost of living, public services, job security and climate change the Labor party has opened up significant trust surpluses. And among those who rate the issues as “very important” that gap is even wider.
It is only on more performative class war issues such as boat turnbacks and transgender athletes where the Coalition has any semblance of brand equity. Based on these numbers, there seems to be dwindling sympathy for the devil.
Nothing about these findings is definitive: the unsure column is still being fattened up for harvest.
Maybe the Labor campaign will not give those yet to decide their votes sufficient grounds to change; that in its efforts to offer “safe change” it doesn’t offer quite enough reason to go to the effort of changing course.
Something like this happened after all in 2019. Although as I noted on that election eve, the caution then was that people were basically in a happy state and were not ready to look up from their phones to change anything much at all. And we hadn’t really yet gotten to know the devil.
• Peter Lewis will discuss the latest Essential Report with Guardian Australia’s chief political correspondent Sarah Martin at 1pm on Tuesday. Free registration here
