Queensland voters were waiting with baseball bats for the Keating government, the late Wayne Goss famously said of the 1996 election.
Voter sentiment had turned feral against Paul Keating, even as he continued to implement a number of enormous, nation-changing reforms: superannuation, industrial relations reform, national competition policy, native title.
Still, journalists were reluctant to reflect the sentiment on the ground that year. “The smart money is on Mr Keating,” one pundit said well into an election campaign that would result in a landslide loss. They’d all been burnt by Keating’s miracle win in 1993.
Twenty-six years later, journalists are too scarred by Scott Morrison’s miracle win in 2019 to reflect the sentiment on the ground: he is viscerally loathed. This is a prime minister who can’t even do a street walk in a disaster area — after announcing tens of millions of dollars in extra assistance — for fear of being abused by locals. A prime minister who won’t let the media film him even on carefully orchestrated visits to affected residences and businesses for fear of a Cobargo welcome.
A prime minister who was once master of governing by announcement now making his announcements — flanked by Bridget “sports rorts” McKenzie — in secure locations to avoid being yelled at. A prime minister incapable of talking about climate change, lest he upset the fragile peace in his Coalition with denialists and conspiracy theorists.
Howard set the scene
Australian policymakers have known for decades — right back to the Howard government, ushered in on the back of Keating’s huge loss — that Australia was the developed nation most exposed to the dangers of climate change; the advanced economy with the most to lose from global warming and the most to gain from concerted international action.
Howard could have followed the lead of his idol Margaret Thatcher and embraced the need for climate action, taking a role of global leadership — after all, Australians always like to tell themselves they’re ahead of everyone else.
Instead the denialist Howard worked diligently to sabotage international climate action, not lead it. The results of decades of inaction have been submerged houses in Brisbane, northern NSW and parts of Sydney over the past fortnight.
Howard, at least, could govern competently when called to do so by crisis. Morrison — having waited more than a week to declare a national emergency, presumably so he could do so in person — can only make excuses, blame everyone else and, as he did yesterday, subtly suggest people are being just a little unreasonable in asking him to do more.
The blameshifting is particularly egregious. Just 18 months ago, the government’s stenographers were cheering its announcement that it would give itself the power to deploy ADF personnel without having to ask the states first. The bill to do that was passed in December 2020. Plainly it didn’t incorporate the need for declarations to be coordinated with the prime minister’s media schedule.
Indeed, Morrison gives the impression he regards the floods as an annoying interruption to his strategy of talking incessantly about national security and the military, in the hope that voters get sufficiently distracted from his domestic failings. But let’s keep the focus on future military acquisitions and ADF personnel, please — actually using them on the ground in Australia is not a subject he likes to take questions on. Indeed, such questions are akin to criticising the men and women in uniform.
Joyce as confounding copilot
It’s Deputy PM Barnaby Joyce’s turn in Lismore today. He has been conspicuous by his absence while Morrison was laid low by COVID. The reason why was demonstrated when he appeared on 7.30 last night and rambled, often incoherently, in response to the simplest of questions — particularly around why basic lessons still haven’t been learnt from previous disasters.
It’s already known that Joyce and his denialist colleagues damage the Liberal vote in urban electorates. That’s supposed to be offset by his greater appeal in regional areas, to bring disgruntled National Party voters back into the fold in a way the bland Michael McCormack couldn’t.
Maybe Joyce could succeed where Morrison has demonstrably failed — starting by actually talking to locals who rightly feel so abandoned by the government.
Meanwhile, Liberal MPs contemplate entering an election led by a man who is too scared to talk to actual voters.
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